Ammo industry: Won't see prices return to normal until 2023

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Saw this article recently and it's confirmed what I have been thinking the past few weeks. We're almost into June and nothing has changed really, so that means there's still a crazy high demand out there. Now, this could be fear mongering on part of the industry to gin up more demand and it is only from a domestic producer, not a foreign ammo manufacturer, so it may not quite be until 2023 before ammo prices and availability and primers become available, but I firmly believe we will not see any relief for the rest of 2021.

And you can forget about it just affecting 9mm and .223, it's affecting every caliber because the companies making ammo are focused mostly on 9mm and .223, so all other calibers will be just as affected. Primers too will also be affected since the companies making the ammo need all the primers they can make.

We're effectively in a consumer depression right now relating to the shooting industry. I mean, for firearms, air guns and muzzleloaders are doing just fine. The US may as well be the UK right now.
 
It's been a full 12 months since 9mm has been 60+ cents/rnd (generally speaking, of course you can find cheaper). After 60 cents, then we'll go through a phase of 50 cents, 40, etc. I don't think 9mm will go from 60 cents to 20 cents overnight.
 
It's been a full 12 months since 9mm has been 60+ cents/rnd (generally speaking, of course you can find cheaper). After 60 cents, then we'll go through a phase of 50 cents, 40, etc. I don't think 9mm will go from 60 cents to 20 cents overnight.
Essentially this.
You also think any place that paid for that expensive ammo is gonna let the new low price stuffed go first and eat the cost of the old supply? Not a chance in hell.
 
Essentially this.
You also think any place that paid for that expensive ammo is gonna let the new low price stuffed go first and eat the cost of the old supply? Not a chance in hell.

That's currently the issue with lumber... it's not a shortage, it's a bunch of middlemen who overpayed based on hiccups and projected shortages.

Problem becomes if it goes on long enough, it becomes the new standard, and never (well... not any time soon) corrects.

A few years ago Coke pulled a virtue signal and jacked their prices drastically "because mean orange cheeto man messed with aluminum tariffs" and despite something like 97% of their product being in bags and bottles, and the aluminum prices going pretty much back to normal, Pepsi bumped up to match and we're never going to see those old prices return.
 
I don't think 9mm will go from 60 cents to 20 cents overnight.
I'm not sure we'll ever see 20 cents again, if only because of the price of copper. How soon we see full shelves will depend on what all those new firearms owners do. (You can include me in that group. I don't mind.) If their guns become safe queens, so too will their stocks of ammo and they won't be looking for more. Long time shooters will then build up their stacks to higher levels than before the shortage, but eventually they to will decide enough is enough. But if enough new shooters stick with it, then it'll take somewhat longer for people to be satisfied with their stockpiles.

And as long as there is even an illusion of a shortage, retailers have no reason to lower their prices. It's going to take a long time for the supply chain to fill up to the point where bulk ammo deals become common again.

At my current burn rate, I've got about 5 months of 9mm FMJ left. I fully expect to have to make another buy at over 0.60 a round :-(.
 
It's been a full 12 months since 9mm has been 60+ cents/rnd (generally speaking, of course you can find cheaper). After 60 cents, then we'll go through a phase of 50 cents, 40, etc. I don't think 9mm will go from 60 cents to 20 cents overnight.
Lol, i was poaching brass 9mm at retail for 40cpr until the middle of last july at least. Steel at 26 cpr until the end of july 20.

That having been said I really doubt that it's going to fall much further than 50 CPR this year just based on sticky price alone. At 40- 50 people are still buying whatever they can touch.
 
Just in time for the next election rush
Yeah, I don't want to focus entirely on politics with this topic, but the 2022 elections next year are going to be very, very important because we've got a Republican party that wants nothing to do with being in power and going to the mattresses investigating the executive branch like how the Democrats investigated Trump, then we have a corrupt Democrat zombie as the President and only one time in the past 30 years has the new president not lost the majority in the house during the first mid term election and that was Bush in 2002 mostly because of 9/11. Also, with the senate tied at 50-50, the general result is a loss for the President's party.

The industry is expecting that trend to continue, but the GOP has shown they don't want to win, they don't want to be an opposition party, they don't want to be the ones blamed for issues in the country and to avoid losing their seats, they'd rather be the minority. It's very possible with all the incumbant GOP senators who are retiring next year that Democrats could win and replace them and get just enough to push thru a closure on the filibuster and make 51 votes the minimum to pass a bill thru the senate and if the D's keep the house... well, that could be all she wrote.
 
I'm not sure we'll ever see 20 cents again, if only because of the price of copper. How soon we see full shelves will depend on what all those new firearms owners do. (You can include me in that group. I don't mind.) If their guns become safe queens, so too will their stocks of ammo and they won't be looking for more. Long time shooters will then build up their stacks to higher levels than before the shortage, but eventually they to will decide enough is enough. But if enough new shooters stick with it, then it'll take somewhat longer for people to be satisfied with their stockpiles.
There's always steel case, I was planning on making steel case my only 9mm FMJ ammo in the future because the price for 1000 rds of it was less enough to make it worth buying.

I think as long as ammo prices stay high, we're going to see a lot of used guns sitting on shelves not getting sold because guns people can't shoot don't have much value. I've have a lot of guns on my list for a while and the one that's least appealing to me is anything I would normally reload for like 10mm or .38/.357 because I can't get the primers. 9mm, while I hate paying almost $30 a box for it now, I can at least get the ammo to shoot it.

And as long as there is even an illusion of a shortage, retailers have no reason to lower their prices. It's going to take a long time for the supply chain to fill up to the point where bulk ammo deals become common again.
Those retailers will keep up the illusion of shortages, upcoming bans, you name it. They had a killer year in 2020 and they don't want to go back to the days of the Trump Slump. After every high profile shooting, you'll probably see banners hanging in windwos saying "DON'T WAIT! BUY IT BEFORE THEY BAN IT!" and the countermen will be saying, "IDK IF I'M EVER GONNA BE ABLE TO GET ANY MORE AMMO IN AGAIN! MIGHT JUST HAVE TO BECOME A MUZZLELOADER AND AIR GUN ONLY SHOP FROM NOW ON!"

The LGS wants to put as much fear into people as they can.
 
There's always steel case, I was planning on making steel case my only 9mm FMJ ammo in the future because the price for 1000 rds of it was less enough to make it worth buying.

I think as long as ammo prices stay high, we're going to see a lot of used guns sitting on shelves not getting sold because guns people can't shoot don't have much value. I've have a lot of guns on my list for a while and the one that's least appealing to me is anything I would normally reload for like 10mm or .38/.357 because I can't get the primers. 9mm, while I hate paying almost $30 a box for it now, I can at least get the ammo to shoot it.


Those retailers will keep up the illusion of shortages, upcoming bans, you name it. They had a killer year in 2020 and they don't want to go back to the days of the Trump Slump. After every high profile shooting, you'll probably see banners hanging in windwos saying "DON'T WAIT! BUY IT BEFORE THEY BAN IT!" and the countermen will be saying, "IDK IF I'M EVER GONNA BE ABLE TO GET ANY MORE AMMO IN AGAIN! MIGHT JUST HAVE TO BECOME A MUZZLELOADER AND AIR GUN ONLY SHOP FROM NOW ON!"

The LGS wants to put as much fear into people as they can.
Lol not sure if serious... no need for staff to incite fear when every third customer walks in some kind of panic mode. (Caused by msm or social media)

Illusion? Yes... every gun shop.has a secret underground 20,000 sq ft anmo bunker they don't tell you about, it's game they play to rape the consumers, dontcha know? [rofl]

Where do you guys come up with this stuff? Are you like 5 or something?

[rofl]
 
Lol not sure if serious... no need for staff to incite fear when every third customer walks in some kind of panic mode. (Caused by msm or social media)

Illusion? Yes... every gun shop.has a secret underground 20,000 sq ft anmo bunker they don't tell you about, it's game they play to rape the consumers, dontcha know? [rofl]

Where do you guys come up with this stuff? Are you like 5 or something?

[rofl]
I didn't say that I believed any of it, but the dopey newb gun owners who don't know a fookin' thing will run back to facebook to tell their gun group that "My LGS just said he's never gonna get ammo again, should I buy everything he's got right now?"

Remember, these are people who think $40 for a box of 9mm is "normal" prices. Tell them that your distributors had all their backorders cancelled and the shelves will be empty for who knows how long and if doing that can sell one more box of ammo from the fear mongering, the LGS Countermen be happy to do it.

Probably get a commission bonus for doing it.
 
I didn't say that I believed any of it, but the dopey newb gun owners who don't know a fookin' thing will run back to facebook to tell their gun group that "My LGS just said he's never gonna get ammo again, should I buy everything he's got right now?"

Remember, these are people who think $40 for a box of 9mm is "normal" prices. Tell them that your distributors had all their backorders cancelled and the shelves will be empty for who knows how long and if doing that can sell one more box of ammo from the fear mongering, the LGS Countermen be happy to do it.

Probably get a commission bonus for doing it.
Work in a gun store of any consequence for a few weeks you'll quickly discover there's no reason for anyone to have to "hard sell" stuff by blowing smoke up customers asses.

Commission? ROFLMAO. That's the funniest shit I've ever heard. [rofl]
 
Work in a gun store of any consequence for a few weeks you'll quickly discover there's no reason for anyone to have to "hard sell" stuff by blowing smoke up customers asses.

Commission? ROFLMAO. That's the funniest shit I've ever heard. [rofl]
Quoted for emphasis.
 
It's been a full 12 months since 9mm has been 60+ cents/rnd (generally speaking, of course you can find cheaper). After 60 cents, then we'll go through a phase of 50 cents, 40, etc. I don't think 9mm will go from 60 cents to 20 cents overnight.

9mm is getting there.....Fiocchi 115gr at my local gunshop this morning, $17.89 per box of 50, no limit.

He said he had a guy come in a few days ago wanting to consign a bunch of 9mm that he had bought at a gunshow for $60.00 +tax a box. 😆.....talk about getting bent over!!!!
He told him he might as well go shoot it or tuck it away because he'd already lost his ass on it and it would never sell for even half of what he paid.
 
9mm is getting there.....Fiocchi 115gr at my local gunshop this morning, $17.89 per box of 50, no limit.

He said he had a guy come in a few days ago wanting to consign a bunch of 9mm that he had bought at a gunshow for $60.00 +tax a box. 😆.....talk about getting bent over!!!!
He told him he might as well go shoot it or tuck it away because he'd already lost his ass on it and it would never sell for even half of what he paid.
That is very promising. I avoided shooting 9mm for most of 2020 and just sat on the few thousand I had stockpiled. I recently got a new carry gun and have shot hundreds of rounds through it. The local shop that gave me a really good price on my new gun had a single box of Magtech for $30. I passed on that.
 
9mm is getting there.....Fiocchi 115gr at my local gunshop this morning, $17.89 per box of 50, no limit.

How many cases did he have? I'm going to guess that shop services only a small number of people....
 
It's been a full 12 months since 9mm has been 60+ cents/rnd (generally speaking, of course you can find cheaper). After 60 cents, then we'll go through a phase of 50 cents, 40, etc. I don't think 9mm will go from 60 cents to 20 cents overnight.

So after 5+ years of being conditioned to pay FR pricing, that manufacturers will just go back to their pre-pandemic pricing? Nope, I do not see that happening.
 
So after 5+ years of being conditioned to pay FR pricing, that manufacturers will just go back to their pre-pandemic pricing? Nope, I do not see that happening.

Even if we take rona BS inflation/fluff out, the fundamental "dock price" of 9mm is still way higher than what it was. Let's say something happened (big 2a win, etc) and the market collapsed tomorrow. You're still not going to see case prices below like $300, at least not until a loooooong period of suffering goes by with the distributors.... as an example look at how long it took for Obamascare values to get that price of 9 mm to go below $200 a case. It literally took years.
 
This week I’ve seen online suppliers stock up on 45 ACP, 9mm, 556 and 223. Prices have been high but not as insane as earlier in the pandemic. I’ve been dollar cost averaging and buying up small quantities.
 
I dunno. Natchez has had many brands of 9mm at sub 50 cpr and some sub 40 cpr throughout the Rona panic shitshow. I think they're literally the only vendor/retailer who had those prices.
This PMC 9mm was in stock earlier today at 38 cpr plus shipping

They still have some Red Army steel cased 9mm in stock at 37 cpr

Hell you can buy 9mm direct from Federal for 44 cpr. This gets posted every morning by Federal.

🤷‍♂️
 
How many cases did he have? I'm going to guess that shop services only a small number of people....

I don't know how much he got in, I didn't ask, but he's been in business since 1992 and people come from 5-6-7 counties around for his gun smithing services. This guy produces "same hole" rifles for a lot of guys around.
He's not a "warehouse" type of operation by far but he does move a lot of guns and ammo. He keeps his pricing within reason and has a large return clientele.
 
Not if you do a tiny bit of legwork. But many don't seem to want to do it. They rather pay 60+ from targetsports and not have to leave their house. To each their own I guess.

So what's a super hot deal? 55cpr? 50cpr? It doesn't go much lower than that. And, that 60cpr from target will seem quaint in two years, we'll be reminiscing on that price.
 
So what's a super hot deal? 55cpr? 50cpr? It doesn't go much lower than that. And, that 60cpr from target will seem quaint in two years, we'll be reminiscing on that price.
See my post above. Smokin deal by Rona standards [laugh]
Pricy by pre Rona standards..
 
Not if you do a tiny bit of legwork. But many don't seem to want to do it. They rather pay 60+ from targetsports and not have to leave their house. To each their own I guess.

There was at least one vendor recently that was selling to MA at 50 cpr shipped without leaving your house either. One of my clients bought two cases, bam, done.
 
There was at least one vendor recently that was selling to MA at 50 cpr shipped without leaving your house either. One of my clients bought two cases, bam, done.
A 9mm brass under .50cpr is now back, a match grade .223 in 62gr+ - not
 
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