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Ammo industry: Won't see prices return to normal until 2023

I came here to post this. They quietly raised prices over the long weekend. How can it be interpreted as anything but a bad sign?
Winchester had a retroactive 8% rise earlier this year. It's about setting the ground for the "new normal".

The ammo firms are learning they may have underestimated the profit maximizing point on the supply/demand curve.
 
I am betting that had more to do with industry backlash. Bad for appearances to be selling direct for less than 99% of downstream dealers are. Feeds "ammo conspiracy tinfoilers" too
 
Bass Pro is selling ammo online again. They had 36 and 44 cpr 9mm in stock today. Definitely seems like things might be getting better.
They got federal 9mm in stock now for $20.99
 
I just received an email from Brownells, (06/03/2021 ~11:57AM EST):
1622735936425.png

"only 339.99" for 500 rounds. Quick math says 340 x 2 = 680, divide by 100 and that's 68 cents per round.

That's obscene. I didn't even bother to see if shipping was additional.


I had a conversation last night with a friend of mine, he's a gun owner, but not a shooter. He wanted to know what it cost me to load my own ammo. I don't actually know. If I'd kept meticulous records I could probably track it - but I wasn't, (and am not), so inclined.

It starts with two XL650s which I guess are "startup costs". Fairly serious investment there, (although to be honest, one was a gift from my wife). Then there's the additional equipment, the die sets, the scale, the chamber checking gauges, the micrometer, the bullet puller, etc. to go along with the presses.

Once all the "startup costs" have been paid, it's just ongoing costs for powder, bullets and primers.

When I started, I did some very rough calculations, and I think I was loading 9mm for about .27 per round. My cost hasn't gone up much, primers are a bit more expensive, but that's it.

Meanwhile, there's no more major capital expense, (I have all of the equipment unless I go to another caliber).

So, this 68 cpr doesn't look like much of a deal to me...
 
You're forgetting one thing.... Time.

yeah, and no.

Reloading is good for my mental health. The simple act of sitting in my garage, listening to music, running the press is relaxing. It's a great way to distance myself from my sometimes stressful work day.

It's the same relaxation I get from working on my bike, cleaning guns, making parts. I spend way too much of my life at a desk, on computers. It's good to use my hands on something other than a keyboard.
 
It starts with two XL650s which I guess are "startup costs". Fairly serious investment there, (although to be honest, one was a gift from my wife). Then there's the additional equipment, the die sets, the scale, the chamber checking gauges, the micrometer, the bullet puller, etc. to go along with the presses.

Once all the "startup costs" have been paid, it's just ongoing costs for powder, bullets and primers.

When I started, I did some very rough calculations, and I think I was loading 9mm for about .27 per round. My cost hasn't gone up much, primers are a bit more expensive, but that's it.

Meanwhile, there's no more major capital expense, (I have all of the equipment unless I go to another caliber).

So, this 68 cpr doesn't look like much of a deal to me...
i made a very high level computation for my .223 and 6.5CM needs, at the time when i started the thread in the reloading forum on that topic - with a one XL750 machine and 2 switchable setups, shell feeder, tools for cleaning, etc - roughly $2K at a minimum for an equipment alone. plus on top of that - unobtanium primers, bullets, etc. considering one already have saved enough brass - i did.

of course it is not about the effort to save $ on ammo - it is cheaper to buy a regular plinking rounds and prices ARE going down - but when you start looking at the match grade rounds of a specific weight - like i want 68gr for 5.56, the whole math changes. a match grade 6.5CM now still costs an unpleasant amount.
still, an absence of primers now still kinda makes it not very sensible.

if CMP will raise its prices two-fold compared to what it was last fall - then it will be no way around, but, if prices will remain or drop a bit - it is easier to buy from CMP again.
 
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I just received an email from Brownells, (06/03/2021 ~11:57AM EST):
View attachment 488996

"only 339.99" for 500 rounds. Quick math says 340 x 2 = 680, divide by 100 and that's 68 cents per round.

This is also exactly how you get people who don't know better to think they've gotten a spectacular deal.
And theres a lot of em out there.
 
9mm for 48 cpr shipped direct from Speer. Not a bad sign I guess.



 
9mm for 48 cpr shipped direct from Speer. Not a bad sign I guess.



That's only twice the price that it should be instead of 3x the price
 
That's only twice the price that it should be instead of 3x the price
Agreed. But compared to 60-70 cpr from just a month or 2 ago, it's a decent sign?
Though there are local shops charging $40 per box of 9mm which blows my mind that people are still paying that. I understand they need money to pay rent, employees, utilities, etc but its a tough pill to swallow knowing you could literally save almost $20 per box by buying online.
 
9mm is getting there.....Fiocchi 115gr at my local gunshop this morning, $17.89 per box of 50, no limit.

He said he had a guy come in a few days ago wanting to consign a bunch of 9mm that he had bought at a gunshow for $60.00 +tax a box. 😆.....talk about getting bent over!!!!
He told him he might as well go shoot it or tuck it away because he'd already lost his ass on it and it would never sell for even half of what he paid.
60 bucks a box.... jfc
 
9mm is getting there.....Fiocchi 115gr at my local gunshop this morning, $17.89 per box of 50, no limit.
My LGS had 9mm in stock today as well. Fiocchi 147gr range. At $39.99 a box of 50.

I didn't ask about limits. While I'm willing to pay a bit extra to keep LGSs in business, that's beyond the call of duty.
 
Dealers will need to drop prices fast as TSUSA is now down dropping prices. I'm all for supporting LGS but paying an extra $15+ per BOX is a bit much.
My LGS has 9mm no name brand at $39/box. 40and 45 named brand like Federal at $43 and $47. And .38sp at $125 for a box of 100. Any “loyalty”. I might have felt is basically gone. I used to go in and not mind spending a buck or 2 more to support them, but not anymore.
 
Ha at mine it’s pretty obvious. Litterally the same stuff from TSUSA but between $9-$14 a box more. Depending whether they are buying it from TS or buying it from the distributor.
 
S&W says going to continue:

'Ammunition inventories that were depleted during the pandemic are showing no sign of improving, according to Smith & Wesson Brands CEO Mark Smith.

Gun sales in the U.S. have soared over the past 15 months as people sought protection in response to the wave of civil unrest that occurred following the death of George Floyd as well as an increase in socially distant outdoor activities amid COVID-19 lockdowns.

Firearms enthusiasts also stocked up to prepare for the possibility of stricter gun regulations during the Biden administration. '

Ammo shortage shows no sign of improving: Smith & Wesson
 
The only good news is with a recession people will have less money to spend on ammo. It's quite possible that prices will come down and availability will go up next year.


Prices seem to be dropping a bit recently but with inflation/devaluation there will be a price point above what it was.
The new normal. (I hate that phrase)
That assumes there's no fresh crisis to drive shortages and or increase price.
At this point it's almost cyclical.
 
S&W says going to continue:

'Ammunition inventories that were depleted during the pandemic are showing no sign of improving, according to Smith & Wesson Brands CEO Mark Smith.

Gun sales in the U.S. have soared over the past 15 months as people sought protection in response to the wave of civil unrest that occurred following the death of George Floyd as well as an increase in socially distant outdoor activities amid COVID-19 lockdowns.


Firearms enthusiasts also stocked up to prepare for the possibility of stricter gun regulations during the Biden administration. '

Firearms enthusiasts stocked up to prepare for the possibility of a WAR!!! Future regulations had nothing to do with most people buying up ammo.
 
Prices seem to be dropping a bit recently but with inflation/devaluation there will be a price point above what it was.
The new normal. (I hate that phrase)
That assumes there's no fresh crisis to drive shortages and or increase price.
At this point it's almost cyclical.
Every time there is a prolonged shortage or inflation, prices are reset from scratch by taking a fresh look at the supply/demand curves. This is why when a vendor's cost goes up by $1 you often see the price go up by $5. Even shooting clubs are not immune to doing that, but at least the extra $$ goes to benefiting the club so it doesn't really hurt.

The primer reaction is ""we see you are willing to pay $90, so we''ll keep the price at that and as long as nobody tries to upset the market share balance, that price will stick".
 
Yup. Then some bright guy will decide I can import from xyzstan and undercut the market.
The market has to move or lose sales.
 
Brass cased 124 grain for a thousand was 494 bucks this morning, believe it was from, Prices have come down some from several folks I've dealt with in the past.
Belom Tactical 124 GR FMJ 9mm For Sale AT Gun Zone Deals
Ouch! LGS last month had something brass-cased for $369. Just too bad you have to buy the case to get that per round price.

I was going to take a second job to buy guns/ammo. Now it's just to put gas in the tank to go to my first job.
 
Ouch! LGS last month had something brass-cased for $369. Just too bad you have to buy the case to get that per round price.

I was going to take a second job to buy guns/ammo. Now it's just to put gas in the tank to go to my first job.
2k and 5k vnd coins, these worth a few usa cents. When hyperinflation of the us dollar set in a round of .22 may cost u 5 dollars lol. What ever type of ammo u shoot you may want to buy a some now, price only gona go up.
 

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