Ammo Shortage To Continue Until Summer 2021

So if reloading is such an attractive option now, why are there shortages of supplies too? There's a whole thread about primers. Are bullets easy to come by?
 
Lot of these New shooters never even heard of .03 or .04 cent .22 they have no idea that .15 cent or .20 cent .22 isn't the norm so they pay it without blinking and eye , just to say HEY I got .22.
I remember when you'd get a small box of .22 when you bought a corndog and a Pepsi... Wait...
 
Let's not let them get the Senate.


 
All those days/weeks/years of loading up on ammo, saying "that's enough" "it would be a waste to buy more" laughing at myself because I thought I had "too much ammo".

:rolleyes:

well WHOSE LAUGHING NOW PAULIE?????!!!!
[laugh][laugh][laugh][banana][banana][banana]
I'd go to a store, come home with what I went for plus a box or two, a brick, a case... Lady Radtekk would ask what I bought, I'd tell her I probably bought too much, she'd say "If you left some on the shelf you didn't buy too much." She called making it fit on the shelves "Ammo Tetris".

Next time prices come down I'm gonna double what I have now within a year. I want to buy so much that my house resembles a certain Italian tower and I have a measurable effect on the local gravity.
 
Drgrant mentioned it somewhere about not having "a good feeling" about Georgia... and I'm in that camp...
 
So if reloading is such an attractive option now, why are there shortages of supplies too? There's a whole thread about primers. Are bullets easy to come by?
Primers are definitely the issue. Powder and bullets aren’t terribly hard to get. Everyone is buying up primers like they are with ammo. A vendor had CCI small pistol primers in stock this afternoon but they’re limiting you to 1k. I gave a friend a heads up and he bought 1k. Cost him about $70 after shipping and hazmat which is crazy but he’s almost out of primers so he didn’t care. Most of my primers were purchased at or below $25 per 1k but given the situation, 7 cents for a primer will still allow you to make much cheaper ammo than you can get anywhere else.
 
So if reloading is such an attractive option now, why are there shortages of supplies too? There's a whole thread about primers. Are bullets easy to come by?
Depends on the bullet. You are ebetter of casting.

For some bullets, like 9mm, 38, 357, 45 ... cast, you can get them if you wait 8-12 weeks. But you can buy thousands.

But if you need a certain match grade .224 bullet it might be tougher. Still easier than primers.
 
Let's not let them get the Senate.


Only rich people should have guns.

Oh if there's a betting pool going on, I think prices on ammo won't come down to earth until 2022.
 
When the price drops everyone whose on the sidelines right now (most of nes) will jump and the shortage will continue. By then the ban on Internet sales will be getting voted on in the senate so the shortage and the accompaning price increase will be incomprehensible as every one tries to buy their one box limit before internet sales are banned.
 
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Primers are cheap during normal times. Its called a stockpile.

I am actually pretty happy I’m completely rebuilding my reloading setup this winter because of the primers I have on hand. I usually try to stay pretty stocked up on them, but did a lot of reloading, especially 9mm and 45ACP, last winter and have less than I would like to right now. Powder and projectiles - I feel good, but primers not as much.

I guess I always have less than I’d like to though...
 
With all due respect, as I know we've all been around the tree a few times, I'd offer a different scenario for your consideration:

Winter chases the Antifa types off the street with the cold temps while "the Rona" recedes in the spring lowering the fear levels a bit. Further, without Trump to use as the "bad orange man" the fractures in the Democratic Party which were hidden in their unity over Trump-hate, come to the front and divide the party making it less "effective." The radical left has only the vaguest forces to "Resist" under a Biden admin and faces a unified right and centrist left (on the issue of rioting) when and if they do return to the streets next summer. All of this happens in a time when the Biden Administration faces significant and severe challenges that prevent it from focusing (negatively) on 2A issues while the SC is no longer a refuge for the Gun Control types. I think Ammo is back to within 20% of it's pre-covid/riot/shortage hysteria by mid summer.


Unless...

1. A single or series of Mass-Shooting incidents refocus the Biden admin on gun control.
2. Dems get control of the senate in 6 weeks.
3. "Wild Card" Coronavirus prevents workers from returning or raw materials from being sourced.

That's my optimistic take on it. I could be wrong. The lady says so frequently.
Interesting take.

What if leftist rioters, politicians, and sympathizers start getting greased left and right??

And what if at the same time proof positive, without a doubt (which I already see) comes out to all the blind fools that the evil dems rigged and stole the election?
 
When the price drops everyone whose on the sidelines right now (most of nes) will jump and the shortage will continue. By then the ban on Internet sales will be getting voted on in the senate so the shortage and the accompaning price increase will be incomprehensible as every one tries to by their one box limit before internet sales are banned.

That wouldn't be very smart for the antis... getting the gun owners, and gun mafia, pissed at them, all at once. [rofl] Good luck with that.

That said, it wont matter functionally, if they even talk about ANYTHING, even soft shit, people are going to go bonkers. They will just make us more powerful...


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DM3q2g0PFCs
 
Drgrant mentioned it somewhere about not having "a good feeling" about Georgia... and I'm in that camp...

When obvious, on video cheating/ballot stuffing is ignored - the Georgia Special will just have the poll workers filling out ballots all night and feeding them through the machines. When the lawsuit is brought, since it wasn’t filed in June, it will be thrown out.
 
The recovery will be slow. Prices are raised the instant the cost of goods goes up, but are very slow to come down as the market seeks a "new normal" that is invariably higher than it was before the shortage.

For example, primers in 1987 were $10/K. Using inflationtool.com one gets a 2020 equivalent of $23.27, but the pre-shortage 2020 rate was $38/K or 64% higher in real terms. It's my believe that the two previous shortages contributed to the long term primer price increase on an inflation adjusted basis.

When I was in high school, we tried to avoid paying more than .01 (1 cent) per round of .22. Later, when I got into shooting in the late 80s, the same logic was applied to Winchester primers - never pay more than a penny each. After each primer shortage, prices settled in at a "new normal" higher than pre-shortage - though this is the only shortage I remember that has seen widespread opportunistic reselling - probably because the internet grew up since the first two big shortages.

Bullets are easier to get because there are more manufacturers, and the barriers to entry are much lower. In a pinch, making your own bullets is much easier than recharging primers and banging out the dimple in the cup (preferably not in that order though). They have seen their own ratchet as commodity prices pushed prices up, and only part of that increase was rolled back when the price of lead came down.

My only primer source is charging what I used to pay online for Winchester, but I would have to buy 500,000 to get that price and wait about 3 months for import/export paperwork and shipping of an unfamiliar but reputable European brand.
 
The recovery will be slow. Prices are raised the instant the cost of goods goes up, but are very slow to come down as the market seeks a "new normal" that is invariably higher than it was before the shortage.

For example, primers in 1987 were $10/K. Using inflationtool.com one gets a 2020 equivalent of $23.27, but the pre-shortage 2020 rate was $38/K or 64% higher in real terms. It's my believe that the two previous shortages contributed to the long term primer price increase on an inflation adjusted basis.

When I was in high school, we tried to avoid paying more than .01 (1 cent) per round of .22. Later, when I got into shooting in the late 80s, the same logic was applied to Winchester primers - never pay more than a penny each. After each primer shortage, prices settled in at a "new normal" higher than pre-shortage - though this is the only shortage I remember that has seen widespread opportunistic reselling - probably because the internet grew up since the first two big shortages.

Bullets are easier to get because there are more manufacturers, and the barriers to entry are much lower. In a pinch, making your own bullets is much easier than recharging primers and banging out the dimple in the cup (preferably not in that order though). They have seen their own ratchet as commodity prices pushed prices up, and only part of that increase was rolled back when the price of lead came down.

My only primer source is charging what I used to pay online for Winchester, but I would have to buy 500,000 to get that price and wait about 3 months for import/export paperwork and shipping of an unfamiliar but reputable European brand.

What are you waiting for????

Twenty or thirty people in on a group buy could eat up 500,000 primers with ease. My usual primer purchases in the past were 25,000 at a time of each SR, LR, LP and sometimes SP but usually substituted SR in their place.
 
I’d say ammunition and firearms manufacturers are essential workers that need vaccines first.

Some wingnut floated the idea of $1500 stimulus for those who take the vaccine. Sounds like the only way anyone’s gonna take that is if they give ammo out...

We’re living in a world of toilet paper being rationed. You might as well use your voting ballot...

You have to ask yourself, do I really need toilet paper?
 
The supply recovery will be extended by normal demand psychology. As soon as ammo and components reappear, people will strip the shelves. This will repeat for several cycles over at least a year until buers start refusing to take current market prices. Once supplies are seen as staying on the retail shelf, the panic buying will subside. That's what happened last time; but it takes many months.
 
The primer shortage is also contributing to the ammo shortage. I have not been able to procure SPP in any meaningful volume. As a result I can't reload forever because I will run out of primers. So instead I am now buying factory ammo because when/if I run out reloads and primers I am going to need something and factory ammo will be it.
 
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