another ammo shortage?

[greencobra]

hearing chatter on the interweb highways and byways regarding this new shortage thats coming. if you spend any time roaming around sites with gun related content you've seen it as well. what do you think? to me ammo seems plentiful and prices have certainly dropped a bit over the last year and a half. i'm not seein' it.

 

[LTCRN]

Fake News! Plenty of ammo available, some at a decent price too. 9mm has dropped ten cents a round from when the pandemic first struck. The newbie gun owners swarmed the market for their one and only box of ammo that still has about 90% left.

 

[drgrant]

Fake News! Plenty of ammo available, some at a decent price too. 9mm has dropped ten cents a round from when the pandemic first struck. The newbie gun owners swarmed the market for their one and only box of ammo that still has about 90% left.

There is plenty of ammo but inflation has definitely crept/sunken/been baked into the current product price.

 

[btnh6668]

hearing chatter on the interweb highways and byways regarding this new shortage thats coming. if you spend any time roaming around sites with gun related content you've seen it as well. what do you think? to me ammo seems plentiful and prices have certainly dropped a bit over the last year and a half. i'm not seein' it.

I have noticed Target sports has gotten very few shipments the past 3 weeks. It was coming in pretty regularly the months before. They would have 3-5 ammo dumps from different manufacturers a week. Lately its been 1 or 2.

 

[Reptile]

I know where to get 22LR for 5 cents per round...

Should I buy it all up???

I could be set for life!

 

[btnh6668]

I know where to get 22LR for 5 cents per round...

Should I buy it all up???

I could be set for life!

I am still shooting through my Obama election .22 from walmart. When he first got elected everyone went nuts and the only thing available was .22. So i figured id buy it up because the next time everyone would be buying .22. Boy was I right. Doesnt happen often but I had bought like 20,000 rounds of 550 bricks at $13-15.

 

[Road_Clam]

There is NO current or future ammo shortage. HOWEVER all's it takes is some guy posting a "I read something on a bathroom wall" and it's instant mass panic and everyone runs to their LGS and buys 9mm they don't need.

 

[DW357]

There is NO current or future ammo shortage. HOWEVER all's it takes is some guy posting a "I read something on a bathroom wall" and it's instant mass panic and everyone runs to their LGS and buys 9mm they don't need.

I’ve posted this a million times before but I’ll post it again

 

[cookiecutter]

I don't see an ammo shortage, but I still haven't seen the primers come back and I'm struggling to see a good explanation for that shortage lasting as long as it has.

 

[EJFudd]

Common ammo? Available everywhere... All you can carry.

Ammo for my vintage S&W revolvers? Still mail order only and crazy expensive to buy that way.

 

[union]

I see ammo everywhere. At least the common stuff. What I'm not finding much of is ammo for my lever guns. Seen very little 30-30 and 45-70. When I do see it the prices still seem very high.

 

[Chris]

Just remember...

In the future, you will always look back and wonder why you didn't pile it high and deep when you could.

Just something to think about.

 

[T-Unit]

The only ammo shortage I see is for revolver calibers and the less popular auto calibers (like .25, .32, .38 Super, etc.)

I'm attributing this to the ammo companies focusing production on the most popular calibers. All the primers they're able to make go into 9mm, .40/10mm, .45, .223/5.56 and that's it. They have so much demand for those calibers they can't tear down and setup a line to run .38 or .357 or .30 Carbine for even 3 days, it's not profitable for them to do so because the demand for that stuff pails in comparison to the other calibers.

That's also why primers aren't available like they use to be: manufacturers make more money selling the fixed ammo than just the primers.

The refusal to increase production by building new facilities and buying equipment is another factor. It's not like they can't find people to work, I looked at Federal, Speer, and CCI's websites last year, they had one or two positions open for non-critical operations. They have the employees, they just don't want to spend the money because that's an expense based around an uncertain future demand.
If anyone thinks that demand is going to go down in 2 year or 4 years, they're wrong. More Americans will be buying guns for the first time to carry them, 70m people now have access to conceal carry that they didn't have last year. Those are massive numbers.

But, if the current ammo companies don't want to expand, that's fine. Competitors like PSA will and will take significant market share doing so.

 

[T-Unit]

I don't see an ammo shortage, but I still haven't seen the primers come back and I'm struggling to see a good explanation for that shortage lasting as long as it has.

Read my post above.

Just remember...

In the future, you will always look back and wonder why you didn't pile it high and deep when you could.

Just something to think about.

Right now the only stuff worth piling high and deep is .22, 9, and .223. Not because it's about all that's available, but because it's the cheapest stuff currently.

 

[drgrant]

The only ammo shortage I see is for revolver calibers and the less popular auto calibers (like .25, .32, .38 Super, etc.)

Lol I don't even think there is a shortage of that at this point it's just simply not around at price point where people are willing to buy much of it. And when you think of most of those
calibers at the weirder end of the rack they're not exactly volume calibers to begin with. I mean 95% of 38 these days is probably launched out of j-frames or LCRs. most people arent even going to make it through a whole box of 38 on a range trip running one of those.

 

[Chris]

Right now the only stuff worth piling high and deep is .22, 9, and .223. Not because it's about all that's available, but because it's the cheapest stuff currently.

So?

Look, when Mosin ammo (7.62x54R) was dirt cheap, I was getting a wood crate delivered nearly weekly. Back when surplus M855 and M193 was cheap, I was stocking that. I piled cases of .22 when I found that at a decent price. I've got filing drawers of .500 Magnum, .50 Beowulf, and even .480 Ruger. Why? Because I found it at a good price. Heck, when I could not find ammo or reloading supplies at decent prices, I bought clips, cardboard, bandoleers, and ammo boxes and began stacking ready to go ammo boxes.

The fact is that something is always available. You just need to decide if the deal is right for you.

 

[drgrant]

Right now the only stuff worth piling high and deep is .22, 9, and .223. Not because it's about all that's available, but because it's the cheapest stuff currently.

Lol just because you're a skinflint doesn't mean everyone else should be. I also don't think its reasonable to assume that prices on even that weird stuff are going to drop anytime soon, obviously the value prop thing for every person is different.

 

[FalArAk]

The people usually pushing ammo shortages are the people sitting on a bunch of inventory.. it's a story as old as the bible lol

 

[240Geezer]

I ordered a mixed lot today of 147 grn sub 9 mm, 300 BLK sub, and .380.
650 rnds all up.
Last week was 500 rnds of Xtac 5.56.
Damn emails from ammo suppliers. I'm weak.

 

[240Geezer]

The people usually pushing ammo shortages are the people sitting on a bunch of inventory.. it's a story as old as the bible lol

I read a different Bible apparently.

 

[FalArAk]

I read a different Bible apparently.

As old as the bible, not a story from it

 

[drgrant]

That's also why primers aren't available like they use to be: manufacturers make more money selling the fixed ammo than just the primers.

Well, its also easier to sell bulk primers to other smaller manufacturers than it is to sell them at a discount to someone like Larry P or whoever (who retails to hobby reloaders).

The refusal to increase production by building new facilities and buying equipment is another factor. It's not like they can't find people to work, I looked at Federal, Speer, and CCI's websites last year, they had one or two positions open for non-critical operations. They have the employees, they just don't want to spend the money because that's an expense based around an uncertain future demand.
If anyone thinks that demand is going to go down in 2 year or 4 years, they're wrong. More Americans will be buying guns for the first time to carry them, 70m people now have access to conceal carry that they didn't have last year. Those are massive numbers.

The numbers are not as exciting as you think they are when you look at retention rate. Sure in the past 3 years a shitload of guns were sold. But its easy to show that less than 50% of these people are hanging around. Sure there might be another surge but smart business people are loathe to have huge capital expenditures going into what is likely a soft and slightly saturating market.... you seem to forget that "most of america that was interested in guns" spent like 3 years blowing most of its wad.

But, if the current ammo companies don't want to expand, that's fine. Competitors like PSA will and will take significant market share doing so.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nCsVOO_3EUU


PSA isnt going to do shit to them. I don't think you really have an idea of the scale that people like Vista, Winchester, S&B, Fiocchi, etc, operate on. IIRC they were yammering about 762 x 39 so they might have some decent success in that space, because thats basically a cartridge nobody in the mainstream cares about. Assuming PSA doesnt step on its own dick like it usually does, if they were smart they could have a niche market selling 5.45 and 762 x 39 to that market, basically taking over where the russian ammo used to exist before.

 

[tcarter01]

While just checking what was out there (I got enough as the saying goes) I noticed not too much 7.62-54 (Mosin) out there. Like literally nothing or silly priced. (Plus, I'm a Ma**h*** so there is that issue for sellers willing to seel into the PRM)

Anyway, found some at CTD and the price was decent... Picked up a "little bit" since with all this ASW Ban crap going on now across the country you never know when basic semi-auto will actually be a crime and we gottan resort to the ole' bolt action......

Stack High (and Deep)

Kirk. OUT.

 

[T-Unit]

Lol I don't even think there is a shortage of that at this point it's just simply not around at price point where people are willing to buy much of it. And when you think of most of those
calibers at the weirder end of the rack they're not exactly volume calibers to begin with. I mean 95% of 38 these days is probably launched out of j-frames or LCRs. most people arent even going to make it through a whole box of 38 on a range trip running one of those.

There is that factor as well, they're low volume calibers. I remember getting a box of .25 at $10 thinking I should buy another 5 boxes and said to myself, "I only shoot about 50 rds a year. What's the sense of stocking that much over something I shoot more of?"

The .38 and .357 tho I can see people wanting to stock 500 rds worth and a few years ago that could be done for $200.

Regardless, the point is that at $40 for a box of .357 there's little sense in buying that now. I'd just as soon buy a 9mm revolver than a .38 or .357 now.

 

[T-Unit]

Lol just because you're a skinflint doesn't mean everyone else should be. I also don't think its reasonable to assume that prices on even that weird stuff are going to drop anytime soon, obviously the value prop thing for every person is different.

I agree with you that prices on all ammo likely aren't moving for another year and there's the potential for them to rocket back up if world events change dramatically in the next few months. Unless you're fine with paying $1 a round for 9mm again, then by all means please sit out this dip buying opportunity.

The less popular calibers I have no idea when they go down in price, at this point I figure they never will, which is why the only new guns I'm buying these days are .22 and 9mm.

 

[drgrant]

There is that factor as well, they're low volume calibers. I remember getting a box of .25 at $10 thinking I should buy another 5 boxes and said to myself, "I only shoot about 50 rds a year. What's the sense of stocking that much over something I shoot more of?"

The .38 and .357 tho I can see people wanting to stock 500 rds worth and a few years ago that could be done for $200.

Regardless, the point is that at $40 for a box of .357 there's little sense in buying that now. I'd just as soon buy a 9mm revolver than a .38 or .357 now.

Even back then they still wouldn't, because most of these non-reloading-wheelgun people are johnny 2 or 4 box at the most, even with a better price. They simply arent shooting
that much.

Who is buying a 9mm revolver? lol I realize its cool but its basically a gimmick for ruger or whover to sell one extra gun to strange skinflints.

You're talking small ball stuff here. thats part of the reason why theres not a ton of it. No average dealer is going to get in a temper tantrum with their distributor about not having 10 cases of backstock of 38SPL on the floor when it probably takes them weeks to sell one case of 38, with 90% of that stuff going out there door with a j-frame sale or similar.

Also if a guy has a 357 magnum and has nothing for it, $40 a box and buying a couple boxes, is still way better than nothing. They will buy it, if they feel like they need it. And mentally most people have a premium associated with 357 mag anyways, it was never a cheap cartridge commercially at least not in the past 20 years.

 

[T-Unit]

Well, its also easier to sell bulk primers to other smaller manufacturers than it is to sell them at a discount to someone like Larry P or whoever (who retails to hobby reloaders).

There is that aspect as well, I saw a lot of smaller ammo companies shut down and come back because they clearly couldn't get primers or brass. Whatever the deal the bottom line is that hobby reloaders aren't getting primers because that supply isn't increasing because companies refuse to increase supply.

Which irritates me to no end because the cost for another machine to punch anvils and cups and hire one more person to work in the primer compound room is very little compared to investing in more machines to make bullets, cases, and fixing the ammo. Again, no matter what the investment cost is the companies are refusing to do it.

The numbers are not as exciting as you think they are when you look at retention rate. Sure in the past 3 years a shitload of guns were sold. But its easy to show that less than 50% of these people are hanging around. Sure there might be another surge but smart business people are loathe to have huge capital expenditures going into what is likely a soft and slightly saturating market.... you seem to forget that "most of america that was interested in guns" spent like 3 years blowing most of its wad.

Guns get sold once, ammo gets sold continuously to feed said guns. So, there's reasons for gun makers not to expand because after people went crazy and bought them they didn't need to buy guns anymore, but the ammo is always needed if they shoot those guns at all.

And that's just focusing on the Covid panic buys, what I'm talking about is the explosion in the CCW market. Even if only 5m of the 70m people choose to carry that's 5m more people with a need for ammo that didn't exist 3 years ago.

PSA isnt going to do shit to them. I don't think you really have an idea of the scale that people like Vista, Winchester, S&B, Fiocchi, etc, operate on.

IIRC they were yammering about 762 x 39 so they might have some decent success in that space, because thats basically a cartridge nobody in the mainstream cares about. Assuming PSA doesnt step on its own dick like it usually does, if they were smart they could have a niche market selling 5.45 and 762 x 39 to that market, basically taking over where the russian ammo used to exist before.

Maybe not immediately, but 10-20 years from now when PSA expands and can start selling steel case 9mm for 25% less than what Blazer and Winchester can for brass, it will have a noticeable impact.

 

[drgrant]

Unless you're fine with paying $1 a round for 9mm again, then by all means please sit out this dip buying opportunity.

I'm not, I buy ammo all the time even if I am not shooting it. Maybe less when prices go up, but still buying it.

Every time one of these incidents happen, sandy hookmaster, covid, whatever, I double my allocation goalpost amounts etc because I realized the previous level set was too
small. Like basically at this point 10K per caliber is "warning/emergency" level and 20K is "stops cold sweating" level. Maybe. I really want "requires forklift" level.

 

[T-Unit]

Even back then they still wouldn't, because most of these non-reloading-wheelgun people are johnny 2 or 4 box at the most, even with a better price. They simply arent shooting
that much.

Who is buying a 9mm revolver? lol I realize its cool but its basically a gimmick for ruger or whover to sell one extra gun to strange skinflints.

You're talking small ball stuff here. thats part of the reason why theres not a ton of it. No average dealer is going to get in a temper tantrum with their distributor about not having 10 cases of backstock of 38SPL on the floor when it probably takes them weeks to sell one case of 38, with 90% of that stuff going out there door with a j-frame sale or similar.

Also if a guy has a 357 magnum and has nothing for it, $40 a box and buying a couple boxes, is still way better than nothing. They will buy it, if they feel like they need it. And mentally most people have a premium associated with 357 mag anyways, it was never a cheap cartridge commercially at least not in the past 20 years.

IDK who is buying revolvers now other than myself, but if they are who is buying .38 or .357's these days at the ammo price and availability rn? Not many, but people who are looking for a simple, reliable wheelgun they can shoot cheap and become good with will see 9mm and jump on it.

If anything what is selling for revolvers is .22's and that is entirely driven by price and curiosity.

 

[drgrant]

There is that aspect as well, I saw a lot of smaller ammo companies shut down and come back because they clearly couldn't get primers or brass. Whatever the deal the bottom line is that hobby reloaders aren't getting primers because that supply isn't increasing because companies refuse to increase supply.

Hobby reloaders are on the dog food end of the spectrum for getting primers, I guess thats what im getting at.

Increasing supply is more complicated (and expensive) than you make it out to be, but we covered this ad nauseam years ago on this forum, in great detail.

Which irritates me to no end because the cost for another machine to punch anvils and cups and hire one more person to work in the primer compound room is very little compared to investing in more machines to make bullets, cases, and fixing the ammo. Again, no matter what the investment cost is the companies are refusing to do it.

If you were an ammo company would you want to f*** yourself in the ass by making too much product? (this is a thing, btw). Nah, steady state high profit is where its
at. Their investors would assasinate them if they started whoring out. They dont want to be in a position where they have too many dead lines or similar. Thats wasting money. Theres a delicate balance between losing $ because you are underserving the market vs going full retard and overproducing.

Not to mention ethically nobody who isnt an a**h*** wants to be in a position where they have to lay someone off. Ethically its far better to over Heywood Jablome foreman of line whatever, 1 or 2 days of overtime every week for a year than it is to hire another guy and then have to fire the dude when the demand drops off. Overstaffing sucks because it sets a company up to have to do shitty things to people when the gravy train slows. Ethically its less shitty to take peoples OT away than it is to fire a bunch of people.

Guns get sold once, ammo gets sold continuously to feed said guns. So, there's reasons for gun makers not to expand because after people went crazy and bought them they didn't need to buy guns anymore, but the ammo is always needed if they shoot those guns at all.

Dude 90% of those guns go home and collect dust. Go work at a gun shop of any size for a year or two, and you will see what I'm talking about. You can tell when used shit comes back in X years later when a guy dies or something and most of it is barely used. I remember taking in a guys collection that had passed, guy msut have had 15 rifles, only about 5 of them were used. Several were new in the box, untouched.

Most people don't shoot most of their guns.

The "guy or lady who is always shooting" rate is probably well under 10% of all gun owners, then it goes up in % from there vs time between range visits etc.

ETA: if most people who bought guns shot them on the reg there'd still be a huge shortage right now.

And that's just focusing on the Covid panic buys, what I'm talking about is the explosion in the CCW market. Even if only 5m of the 70m people choose to carry that's 5m more people with a need for ammo that didn't exist 3 years ago.

I think you overestimate, the number of carriers vs gun owners is a tiny percentage. You might hit double digits in places where its more politically normalized (FL, TX, etc) but you're smoking crack if you think that say, Maryland, is going to get more than a 2% vs gun owner total carry rate, and most of that rate is going to be among people who already own guns in those shit states. You're forgetting that part. a majority of the people who want to carry in MD or wherever, ALREADY HAVE GUNS. And ammo for them. And already are shooting on the reg. This use rate was already accounted for, even before Bruen. Bruen doesnt really change things that much commercially even if it allows people more freedom.

Maybe not immediately, but 10-20 years from now when PSA expands and can start selling steel case 9mm for 25% less than what Blazer and Winchester can for brass, it will have a noticeable impact.

Meh, maybe, but even so, thats still small ball, and no threat to the bigs whatsoever. Even when the russians imported that stuff, the numbers were never that high.