Gold and silver prices are down

The big boys (Ampex, etc.) have standard buy prices and don't play the college tuition or car price game when making a buy offer.

That's the beauty of capitalism. If the buy price from one vendor is low you try another.

A local dealer recently posted on FaceBook offering $2.50 over spot for Unc. silver eagles. Either Apmex is competitive or they are not no matter their standard buy price policies.

I can say that Apmex prices are not always fixed on the sell side. I had added a coin to a "wishlist" and forgot about it. I got a call saying they had one in stock and named a price. I declined saying I was not interested. He immediately dropped the asking price by over 10%.

Isn't there a book called "Everything is negotiable"?

:)
 
That's the beauty of capitalism. If the buy price from one vendor is low you try another.

A local dealer recently posted on FaceBook offering $2.50 over spot for Unc. silver eagles. Either Apmex is competitive or they are not no matter their standard buy price policies.

I can say that Apmex prices are not always fixed on the sell side. I had added a coin to a "wishlist" and forgot about it. I got a call saying they had one in stock and named a price. I declined saying I was not interested. He immediately dropped the asking price by over 10%.

Isn't there a book called "Everything is negotiable"?

:)
I probably goofed by not going long on 1943 copper Lincolns when Apmex had one in stock.
 
Only if it's NGC approved first...

:)
Preferably with a CAC sticker. I don't remember if this one was NGC or PCGS, but it had one of the two top tier slabs. At that price level, I would insist it go directly to NCG or PCGS for re-authentication. It was around $200k, but was one of the more common 1943 coppers.
 
Preferably with a CAC sticker. I don't remember if this one was NGC or PCGS, but it had one of the two top tier slabs. At that price level, I would insist it go directly to NCG or PCGS for re-authentication. It was around $200k, but was one of the more common 1943 coppers.

Had a chance to buy an original Enigma machine years ago for about $50K. Wife looked at me like I had 2 heads.

What do they sell for now??? OMFG...
 
Be very careful buying silver from non-reputable sources. There are some really, really good Chinese knockoffs floating around. I saw some Englehard 1oz silver bars that were counterfeit right down to the fake serial numbers. And I read of a recent seizure of fake Morgans and Eagles.
 
Be very careful buying silver from non-reputable sources. There are some really, really good Chinese knockoffs floating around. I saw some Englehard 1oz silver bars that were counterfeit right down to the fake serial numbers. And I read of a recent seizure of fake Morgans and Eagles.
Another problem - this makes you a non-reputable source when it is time to sell, so private buyers will expect a discount over brokerage house prices.
 
Another problem - this makes you a non-reputable source when it is time to sell, so private buyers will expect a discount over brokerage house prices.
The Englehard bars I saw were really good. If you you don't have a good scale, you would never be able to tell. They were off by fractions of a gram. If you go on Alibaba, you can buy this crap for .50 cents to a $1.00. Of course if you get caught importing, you might expect a visit from the Secret Service. I was shocked at the gold and silver fake bars and coins on these Chinese websites

A discount is meaningless when you are dealing with fakes. People see a deal and will jump on it. They see past the dollar signs.

Just saying buyer beware...
 
18% round trip loss at current prices, assuming you buy at least 100 eagles.

When I bought some eagles I waited for specials. By and large I bought at $2.00 or less over spot. I bought a few things at spot or near.

So if current market conditions continue I could make money on the spread. If dealers are offering $2.50-$3.00 over spot I have positive margins on markup. Your round trip loss only counts if/when the spread drops or stays the same for current purchases.

Timing is everything!

:)
 
The big boys (Ampex, etc.) have standard buy prices and don't play the college tuition or car price game when making a buy offer.
I actually sold some gold Eagles and got a better price from a local area dealer than from Apmex, where I bought them from. I got spot price from the local and Apmex was spot - $36
 
“Pilgrim Jubilee” medal or “So-Called Dollar”. These were minted in 1870 to depict the 250th anniversary of the mayflower landing in Cape Cod in 1620. These medals have numismatic rarity of R-5 meaning there are between 31-75 known surviving specimens. The first one is graded MS 64 and the second AU58 with some rub high on the devices. I didn’t mean to win both. I bid them each below half of their historical auction prices and got lucky.

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You would only ever see it on some items. Could be they're temporarily not buying stuff due to the virus.
I suspect it has to do with marketing. When the spread is high, you don't want to tell your customers they are paying an 18% or so de-facto commission. (The typical buy/sell spread for Silver Eagles these days). It's hard to imply "our price is high because our cost is high" when you are charging a $10 spread over spot on $16 worth of metal while telling the world you will pay a $2 spread to buy that same product.

It's like the "about gold" articles virtually every big seller offers. None (that I have found) mention that precious metals profits are taxed as ordinary income, and do not get long term capital gain treatment like stocks, mutual funds and ETFs do.

I am not expecting the entire system to crash, and it is very hard to get me interested in buying any investment that has to increase 22% in value (If the commission is 18%, you need 1/(1-.18)-1 to break even) just to get back to where I started
 
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18% round trip loss at current prices, assuming you buy at least 100 eagles.

Yea, spot is not money for goods. My last eagle purchase was from a local dealer when eagles from top line houses were selling for 24$ a coin. I paid that locally, no shipping or insurance.

Had a chance to buy an original Enigma machine years ago for about $50K. Wife looked at me like I had 2 heads.

There was one on the north shore some years ago. I chased that for a year and he passed away. The machine, "disappeared". I was in the bidding at $3,200.!!

And I read of a recent seizure of fake Morgans and Eagles.

The fake Morgans have been around forever. They can be very good since in some, the silver content is correct.

By and large I bought at $2.00 or less over spot.

That's my target, but in these days, it is very hard to find.

.
 
I suspect it has to do with marketing. When the spread is high, you don't want to tell your customers they are paying an 18% or so de-facto commission. (The typical buy/sell spread for Silver Eagles these days). It's hard to imply "our price is high because our cost is high" when you are charging a $10 spread over spot on $16 worth of metal while telling the world you will pay a $2 spread to buy that same product.

It's like the "about gold" articles virtually every big seller offers. None (that I have found) mention that precious metals profits are taxed as ordinary income, and do not get long term capital gain treatment like stocks, mutual funds and ETFs do.

I am not expecting the entire system to crash, and it is very hard to get me interested in buying any investment that has to increase 22% in value (If the commission is 18%, you need 1/(1-.18)-1 to break even) just to get back to where I started

The big spread right now is a temporary thing, as retailers wait for new supply from the reopened mints. So if Apmex can soon get a supply of silver coins for spot, they wouldnt want to buy ours for above spot.

So the 18% is a temporary spread that won't be there when you sell your silver at $50.
 
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18% round trip loss at current prices, assuming you buy at least 100 eagles.

I paid $17 for a lot of my Eagles in the last 2 years. Not a bad return, but I'm holding out for $50 minimum.

I have stock in Bear Creek Mining. Their market cap is $200 million, but with each $1 the silver price increases, their net asset value goes up like $115 million. So if silver goes to $50 the stock will go up 1500%. That's where the money will be made, in the miners.
 
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I have stock in Bear Creek Mining. Their market cap is $200 million, but with each $1 the silver price increases, their net asset value goes up like $115 million. So if silver goes to $50 the stock will go up 1500%. That's where the money will be made, in the miners.
Whose math? Audited by whom? Any "estimates" in the mix?

You can't exactly value silver in the ground at spot, and prices to not always track NAV depending on market sentiment and consensus as to future outlook.

Although possible, I find it hard to believe that there is a stock that will automatically go up 50% if there is a $1 rise in silver prices.
 
Whose math? Audited by whom? Any "estimates" in the mix?

You can't exactly value silver in the ground at spot, and prices to not always track NAV depending on market sentiment and consensus as to future outlook.

Although possible, I find it hard to believe that there is a stock that will automatically go up 50% if there is a $1 rise in silver prices.

Well keep in mind the spot price is volatile, and mining investors care about future silver prices not the current spot price. So the stock will go up only when investors think silver has reached a stable price and isn't going to slide back down. Most silver miners including bear creek aren't profitable at $15 silver or even $17. Some of them can afford to sit on their deposits at this price, others are forced to sell at a loss to keep afloat. That's why silver miners haven't taken off like gold miners. They're up a lot but not yet at all time highs like the bigger gold miners.

I pay for a mining newsletter so don't want to post his research for free but I'll dig up some numbers.
 
Gold is so damn expensive right now.... I'll probably have to pass getting 1 oz this year.

Is this the highest gold has ever been?

Not in the US dollar, it was $1900 back in 2011 before starting a 6 year bear market.

In all other currencies gold is well past its all-time highs. The dollar is just high right now relative to foreign currencies.

If you don't want to pay the premium, a couple good options are Sprott Gold Trust - you pay capital gains taxes when you sell, not collectibles taxes. Another option is the ETF OUNZ, which you can exchange for physical gold Eagles, but the $500 charge plus $50/oz premium means you don't want to do that unless you have like 5+ ounces.

Premiums are in fact coming down. There's actually 6 deals on Apmex at the moment, haven't seen that in a couple months. All qualify for Ebay Bucks I think. With a Bucks deal these would be $100 over spot or so, still not great but better than $200-300 two weeks ago.

 
Whose math? Audited by whom? Any "estimates" in the mix?

You can't exactly value silver in the ground at spot, and prices to not always track NAV depending on market sentiment and consensus as to future outlook.

Although possible, I find it hard to believe that there is a stock that will automatically go up 50% if there is a $1 rise in silver prices.

Here's the Feasibility Study for Bear Creek Mining. Indicates a 15 year mine life and total ounces in the ground of 150 million. This is where the analyst gets the $100 million increase in NPV per $1 increase in silver.


With any mining company obviously their value goes up in direct correlation with the value of the asset they have in the ground. That's why it's the hottest sector in the market right now.

Year to date, GDX is beating S&P500 and Nasdaq, and even Apple. [cheers] And that's after gaining 40% in 2019.


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Gold is so damn expensive right now.... I'll probably have to pass getting 1 oz this year.

Is this the highest gold has ever been?
I do not anticipate gold and silver going down. Maybe you could just buy a 1/2 ounce or 1/4 ounce of gold this year? Alternatively you might consider buying some silver? Just some thoughts...
 
Here's the Feasibility Study for Bear Creek Mining. Indicates a 15 year mine life and total ounces in the ground of 150 million. This is where the analyst gets the $100 million increase in NPV per $1 increase in silver.
Good data. My original point was that you cannot expect the stock to move dollar for dollar identically matching NPV of the metal in the ground, as there are many other factors that go into a stock price. Quite simply, the B-School wisdom that a stock price is the total NPV of all future cash flows expected from the stock is wrong. There is also the bookie effect - as in, "This may be overvalued based on NPV but I still think someone else will pay even more later".

There are several arguments that PM sellers repeatedly use - "cost to mine new"; "gold/silver ratio"; etc. - none of which are reliable determinators of whether the asset is (a) undervalued; and (b) due to rise to its true value.
 
Good data. My original point was that you cannot expect the stock to move dollar for dollar identically matching NPV of the metal in the ground, as there are many other factors that go into a stock price. Quite simply, the B-School wisdom that a stock price is the total NPV of all future cash flows expected from the stock is wrong. There is also the bookie effect - as in, "This may be overvalued based on NPV but I still think someone else will pay even more later".

There are several arguments that PM sellers repeatedly use - "cost to mine new"; "gold/silver ratio"; etc. - none of which are reliable determinators of whether the asset is (a) undervalued; and (b) due to rise to its true value.

Yeah, that's true, and it's why the stock is $1.90 instead of $19. [laugh] At $200 million with estimated 150 million oz silver in the ground, they're valued at like $1.33/oz. Their silver is in Peru, and they haven't built a mine yet, so there is obvious risk.

I linked the company because it's probably the purest silver play among mining stocks, will benefit the most if silver goes to $20 (and stays there). They have no debt and plenty of cash, great proven management, so risk is acceptable.

There are other silver stocks I own that I like better (AG, AXU, SILV) cause they're less risky and will still benefit hugely if silver goes to $20 and up. They're not as cheap of course.
 
I do not anticipate gold and silver going down. Maybe you could just buy a 1/2 ounce or 1/4 ounce of gold this year? Alternatively you might consider buying some silver? Just some thoughts...

If they go down, it'll be short-lived, and in the last few years what usually happens when gold and silver spot prices go way down, the price of retail coins and bars doesn't drop much, so you can't benefit. That's why I like stocks instead of physical, cause they DO go on sale with the spot price.
 
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