Industry status

[Troy64]

I received the following in an email......

Latest on the production info on Gun & Ammo Industry

Smith & Wesson-is running at Full capacity making 300+ guns/day-mainly M&P pistols. They are unable to produce any more guns to help with the shortages.

RUGER: Plans to increase from 75% to 100% in the next 90 days.

FNH: Moving from 50% production to 75% by Feb 1st and 100% by March 1. Remington-Maxed out!

Armalite: Maxed out.

DPMS: Can't get enough parts to produce any more product.

COLT: Production runs increasing weekly...bottle necked by Bolt carrier's.

LWRC:Making only black guns, running at full capacity...can't get enough gun quality steel to make barrels.

Springfield Armory: Only company who can meet demand but are running 30-45 days behind.

AMMO: Every caliber is now Allocated! We are looking at a nation wide shortage of all calibers over the next 9 months. All plants are producing as much ammo as possible w/ of 1 BILLION rounds produced weekly. Most is military followed by L.E. and civilians are third in line.

MAGPUL is behind 1 MILLION mags, do not expect any large quantities of magpul anytime soon.

RELOADERS... ALL Remington, Winchester, CCI & Federal primers are going to ammo FIRST. There are no extra's for reloading purposes... it could be 6-9 months before things get caught up. Sorry for the bleak news, but now we know what to expect in the coming months. Stay tuned, we'll keep you posted...

Related commentary from Bob Owens:

They didn’t know when they’d be getting anything back in stock, from magazines to rifles to pistols. Manufacturers were running full-bore, but couldn’t come close to keeping up with market demand. It wasn’t just the AR-15s, the AK-pattern rifles, the M1As, and the FALs that were sold out. It really hit me when I realized that the World War-era M1 Garands, M1 carbines, and Enfield .303s were gone, along with every last shell. Ubiquitous Mosin-Nagants—of which every gun store always seems to have 10-20—were gone. So was their ammo. Only a dust free space marked their passing. I’ve never seen anything like it.

Every weapon of military utility designed within the past 100+ years was gone.

 

[timbo]

this is indeed dismal...

 

[bch1988]

Wow. And now comes the ultra expensive secondary market.

 

[M1911]

I placed an order for primers on January 15th. I just got an e-mail today containing the invoice. So hopefully they will get shipped soon. If I get those, I will be set for large pistol primers for a while. I sure could use some small pistol primers, though.

 

[Franco]

With all these surges in sales due to tinfoil panic buyers etc (Obama panic of 2008 THRU 2013+) these manufacturers are going to manufacture them selves out of business once they make enough parts and rifles to supply every US citizen with 2 AR and 2 AKs 2 times over. I predict a very large surplus market in 5-10 years. Ammo is a consumable so it will always be in constant manufacture.

 

[M1911]

With all these surges in sales due to tinfoil panic buyers etc (Obama panic of 2008 THRU 2013+) these manufacturers are going to manufacture them selves out of business once they make enough parts and rifles to supply every US citizen with 2 AR and 2 AKs 2 times over. I predict a very large surplus market in 5-10 years. Ammo is a consumable so it will always be in constant manufacture.

That didn't happen after Obama panic 1.0.

 

[Franco]

That didn't happen after Obama panic 1.0.

Ill bet a majority of the the ARs and Aks in the NES classified and on GB right now which are selling for even more then they did in the 1.0 days are the tailings from the Obama Panic 1.0. The tailings after 2.0 are going to be even bigger.

If it was a true shortage there wouldnt be anything on NES or GB but a bunch of FUDD guns.

 

[EZEKIEL 25:17]

The lack of ammo thing really does kind of kill off the sport for at least a season. That sucks. A year of just .22 is just not as fun. I would think that this would also hinder many purchase decisions for those who like to actually shoot their firearms as opposed to look at them.

 

[ShadeWPI]

With all these surges in sales due to tinfoil panic buyers etc (Obama panic of 2008 THRU 2013+) these manufacturers are going to manufacture them selves out of business once they make enough parts and rifles to supply every US citizen with 2 AR and 2 AKs 2 times over. I predict a very large surplus market in 5-10 years. Ammo is a consumable so it will always be in constant manufacture.

While there may be some over production, largely due to double ordering (when a person or distributor places multiple orders for a single need of an item because they want to get it as fast as possible, so they repeat a single request with multiple vendors) but I also believe that most of the manufacturers and distributors are in-touch with the market enough to understand that this is a surge fueled by fear buying and they're prepared to roll off production as the back-order diminishes.

I think we'll see a lot less NIB surplus due to over production, but a large surplus of secondary market sales when people who over-spent to get in this market drought need to sell to raise cash and pay their own bills.

 

[Livefreeormass]

With all these surges in sales due to tinfoil panic buyers etc (Obama panic of 2008 THRU 2013+) these manufacturers are going to manufacture them selves out of business once they make enough parts and rifles to supply every US citizen with 2 AR and 2 AKs 2 times over. I predict a very large surplus market in 5-10 years. Ammo is a consumable so it will always be in constant manufacture.

So where are we at now to literally 2ARs and 2 AKs/citizen? Everyone says that NYS has 1 million ARs, which I kinda doubt. That would make 1AR for every 20 NY residents. Extrapolating that speculated data, we are just at 2 or 3% of a "saturated the market".

The key here would be increasing gun ownership. If more people become gun owners, then the industrial capacity will be stressed to its limit. Problem is that gun ownership seems shrinking In the latter dynamic scenario, your projection becomes more probable.
Ironic that the president won a Nobel Peace prize, yet gun sales during his 2 terms has been skyrocketing, and it just might trickle down to significantly increased gun ownership.

 

[exo]

Ironic that the president won a Nobel Peace prize, yet gun sales during his 2 terms has been skyrocketing, and it just might trickle down to increasing gun ownership.

He got the peace prize based on what those clowns hoped he might do, instead of what he has actually done.

More guns does mean a more peaceful society, though. If everyone is armed, you have to convince people to do what you want rather than force them.

 

[BuckTheMoose]

It sounds like now is a good time to get into the gun business.

Buck.

 

[TTA89]

The lack of ammo thing really does kind of kill off the sport for at least a season. That sucks. A year of just .22 is just not as fun. .

Hah! I have been trying to find bulk .22 and there is none. I have seen some CCI but I want cheap .22 bulk packs! Stop collecting ammo people

 

[Heybobc]

More guns does mean a more peaceful society, though. If everyone is armed, you have to convince people to do what you want rather than force them.

I would agree except for when the brown boots have more/bigger weapons than the citizens. I think Adolf, Mao, etc. proved that.

 

[not new guy]

So all the government has to do is keep buying up the ammo supply and none will make its way down to the consumers. Wonderful.

 

[Robracer50]

So all the government has to do is keep buying up the ammo supply and none will make its way down to the consumers. Wonderful.

Technically it is OUR ammo since Tax dollars pay for it. I say we ask the .gov to give it back! I'm sure we can put it to best use.

 

[exo]

I would agree except for when the brown boots have more/bigger weapons than the citizens. I think Adolf, Mao, etc. proved that.

Which is why the federal gun control laws need to be repealed.