The reality of gun availability during ECR

n1oty

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There are enough people who are weathering the storm, have the funds to splurge on a single luxury to de-stress at home during stressful times to provide work for the limited amount of tradesmen.

Just realize that not everyone is in a bad spot like you. Yes, lots of people are without jobs. But there are still LOTs of jobs that remain largely untouched.



Some of those are doing okay. My brother does conference management. While the conferences have dried up, they’ve pivoted to organizing/running large digital meetings and are very busy agan

The interesting part concerning my trade is that the customers generally fall within the middle class to the rich. I am strictly on the service side of things, not the sales side, but I keep my fingers on the pulse of the industry by talking to the dealers daily. This year's COVID fun and games has yielded the following in my trade:

1. If you try to order a hot tub from a reputable dealer now, you will generally be quoted a wait time of anywhere from 6 months to 1 year. I believe that Hot Spring (an industry gold standard manufacturer) is now quoting delivery in excess of 45 weeks for a new tub. The reasons I hear from the dealers for the delay is a combination of two factors. First, demand is up considerably because people are now vacationing in their own back yard and not traveling. Second, production was significantly reduced through the first three months of COVID shutdowns. Production remains impacted by required PPE use and reduced staff at plants in order to maintain "social distancing".

2. Orders for in-ground pools are so backed up (well over a year) that many dealers have stopped taking actual orders and deposits. They are putting people on a waiting list for contact next year.

3. On the service side, my commercial accounts have all dried up. Gyms used to give me a fair amount of sauna and steam repair. This is completely shut down now. This has been slightly offset by an uptick in calls for residential steam and sauna. One big surprise to me was the complete loss of steam/sauna work for the professional sports teams. According to the Facilities Manager at one of the stadiums, this was due to League COVID restrictions not allowing the use of community steam/sauna rooms. The equipment has been shut down and sealed off.

4. On the residential service side, work EXPLODED back in March and has been relentless ever since, more than making up for my losses on the commercial side. My normal "busy" season runs from mid-April to mid-December. My phone started ringing off the hook in mid-March with hot tub openings at Cape Cod summer properties due to NY/CT rich families fleeing COVID CENTRAL, aka Donk cities. I will have to wait to see if the busy season ends at it's usual time.

5. As an example of being able to raise my rates with impunity, openings and closings of hot tubs represents an excellent example. At the start of this year, I charged a flat rate of $309 to open/close a hot tub with a maximum of two jet pumps. That figure currently stands at $359 today and I contemplate possibly raising it again before the end of the year. So far, the rich people with Cape summer homes are still saying "thank you, may I have another". I have received no push back whatsoever.

6. Labor rates are currently at $160 per hour for residential work and $180 per hour for commercial. I'm not sure whether or not I will raise them further as of now. Again, I am not getting any push back.

7. Obtaining repair parts can be problematic due to significant supply chain disruptions. Parts that used to take, at most, two weeks to obtain now takes two to three months. Fortunately, having been doing this work for over 36 years, I have an extensive supply of parts in my storage, so I am not badly impacted by the COVID delays.

I apologize to the OP for this thread hijack. I felt my information would add to the discussion since the OP was more-or-less a statement on the gun industry in this day of COVID. We live in strange times and I thank God he continues to bless my wife and I.
 

jasonj84

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It is absolutely amazing the number of people at my full time job that have asked me to get them xyz gun and the look of incredulity on their face when I tell them the current state of affairs. They keep checking with me and I keep telling them that nothing has changed, and looking forward I am less than optimistic about things getting better in the short term. One of the guys that took my BFS course over 6 years ago came to me last week and said he just received his LTC. I resisted the temptation of saying "good luck finding a gun you want, and if you actually do, better luck finding something to feed it".
 

andrew1220

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It is absolutely amazing the number of people at my full time job that have asked me to get them xyz gun and the look of incredulity on their face when I tell them the current state of affairs. They keep checking with me and I keep telling them that nothing has changed, and looking forward I am less than optimistic about things getting better in the short term. One of the guys that took my BFS course over 6 years ago came to me last week and said he just received his LTC. I resisted the temptation of saying "good luck finding a gun you want, and if you actually do, better luck finding something to feed it".
My liberal mom lives in FL and texted me yesterday saying she'd like to get a shotgun (told her to get one years ago when she first moved down there). She's got a Ruger SR9 but seems like she would feel more comfortable with a shotgun. I already bought her a bunch of 20 gauge buckshot, slugs etc a few years ago since I told her to get a shotgun then she changed her mind and wanted a pistol.....

Needless to say I told her she may have a tough time but to call her local pawn shops and gun shops and ask for a pump action 20 gauge shotgun for HD. She's going to swing by some shops today.
 

jasonj84

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I took pity on a buddy of mine who was short on 9mm ammo. I would have thought he learned his lesson during the O administration when he couldn't get any ammo. He is the type that has to stop and by ammo on the way to the range. I don't understand his level of normalcy bias. I sold him 500 rounds of 9mm that I got a deal on in normal times for the deal price I paid for it, even though he offered to pay inflated replacement cost.
 

Pyromancer

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I took pity on a buddy of mine who was short on 9mm ammo. I would have thought he learned his lesson during the O administration when he couldn't get any ammo. He is the type that has to stop and by ammo on the way to the range. I don't understand his level of normalcy bias. I sold him 500 rounds of 9mm that I got a deal on in normal times for the deal price I paid for it, even though he offered to pay inflated replacement cost.

Some people never learn...probably says something about some people:oops:
 

mpd61

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Biden wins, Dems flip Senate (and keep House) = no guns/ammo available for years (not just one or two). The attacks on the 2nd Amendment will be relentless and, even if only veiled threats, will impact supply/pricing. Plus we will get the "Green New Deal", etc.


Couple this possibility with the fact that even SCOTUS can't save us! Every democrat-led administration at City/County/State level has disregarded Heller and McDonald decisions consistently among others. States Attorney's General just keep passing their own laws.................I think we're gonna be hurting for a while.
 

NHCraigT

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I took pity on a buddy of mine who was short on 9mm ammo. I would have thought he learned his lesson during the O administration when he couldn't get any ammo. He is the type that has to stop and by ammo on the way to the range. I don't understand his level of normalcy bias. I sold him 500 rounds of 9mm that I got a deal on in normal times for the deal price I paid for it, even though he offered to pay inflated replacement cost.

Unfortunately, that's just gonna teach him to continue to leech off of you and others when he needs ammo ....

IMHO, maybe you shoulda charged him current full-potato price to try to teach him the lesson (to buy and stock up during the times-o-plenty).
 
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Pyromancer

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Unfortunately, that's just gonna teach him to continue to leech off of you and others when he needs ammo ....

IMHO, maybe you shoulda charged him current full-potato price to try to teach him the lesson (to buy and stock up during the times-o-plenty).

Srsly. I have friends I've been telling to get an LTC, or stock up on 9mm at 15cpr (as recently as December of last year-a DECADE LOW price), and the response is *crickets*...SHTF and now everyone's 6-12 months behind the curve, wanting to pay pre panic prices. No sympathy at all for these people. The hand-holding helps Noone. Truth hurts.
 

jasonj84

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Unfortunately, that's just gonna teach him to continue to leech off of you and others when he needs ammo ....

IMHO, maybe you shoulda charged him current full-potato price to try to teach him the lesson (to buy and stock up during the times-o-plenty).

He is definitely not a leech. It is just an extreme case of normalcy bias.
 

StevieP

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IF the Dems take over like this, is there anything preventing gun and ammo companies from ramping up production to meet demand, and hopefully lower costs again? Time to invest in Hornady (are they public?)
 

Pyromancer

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Srsly. I have friends I've been telling to get an LTC, or stock up on 9mm at 15cpr (as recently as December of last year-a DECADE LOW price), and the response is *crickets*...SHTF and now everyone's 6-12 months behind the curve, wanting to pay pre panic prices. No sympathy at all for these people. The hand-holding helps Noone. Truth hurts.

Addendum. Screwed up part is people a year ago weren't willing to spend 15 cpr, thinking it would get to 12-13 cpr...but are now willing to spend 50-60 cpr when it absolutely won't come down in price anytime soon [slap]
 

Pyromancer

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It’s like chasing the stock market...

Yep, FOMO
IF the Dems take over like this, is there anything preventing gun and ammo companies from ramping up production to meet demand, and hopefully lower costs again? Time to invest in Hornady (are they public?)

Theyre running at full production. 3 shifts a day in some cases. The only way they could ramp more is by purchasing more factories/machines/hiring more and the industry has proven time and time again it runs in a boom and bust cycle (Obamascare, Sandyhook, Hillary monster). Why risk the scratch when you already have a captive market? There's no/limited incentive for gun and ammo companies to lower costs currently. They're making record profits-have you seen Federal DIRECT shipping 9mm FMJ to customers for $20 a box and selling out instantly.
 
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Pyromancer

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Q2, 2021 earnings report for Vista Outdoor.
CEO, Chris Metz:
Number four, we've cleaned inventory in all retail and wholesale locations, despite us producing flat out for six months. There's no buildup of inventory at any of our customers. In fact, every one of them would like significantly more simply because consumer demand continues to outpace our ability to supply. The number five backlog. We currently have over a year's worth of orders for ammunition in excess of a billion dollars. This is unprecedented for our company. With demand far outstripping supply and inventory levels in the channel at all time lows, we see strong demand continuing.
 

CrackPot

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Sooo...you can’t get me any of the five most popular guns in demand right now? I’ll give you a deposit!

😄
I still get emails, phone calls, and PMs here on NES asking for VERY specific guns that people want. Guns that were hard to find before COVID in some cases and people unhappy when I won't give them a date, time and place for them to get it. Apparently I am bad at gun sales because I won't sell them what they want.

The other interesting phenomenon is people buying multiple guns and wanting a discount for their multiple purchase. While pre-COVID I would reward such purchase behavior, it is a total disconnect from the current reality. I am product constrained, not customer constrained. What is the reason I would provide a discount in the current environment? I can try and explain this and many understand, but not everyone. The old maxim of "I am buying more, price should be less" is so ingrained. Adjusting for market conditions exceeds many peoples abilities.

Occasionally when I get a really popular gun in stock (think P320 X5 Legion or P365XL) hilarity can ensue. It is not likely that I acquired the gun through traditional channels, but it is more likely that I found some retailer somewhere that was significantly under pricing the market. Knowing the actual market price (think gunbroker completed auction history for the past week or similar), I grab it and then offer it for sale just below market price. Yes, the current market price is higher than you saw it back in January. I then get "arguments" over the price I am selling it for. People remember pre-COVID pricing, or see it out of stock but still listed for low prices on websites or "my friend got it for XXX". I have two choices: 1) have nothing in stock or 2) acquire by any means and sell at current fair market/reasonable profit. It sucks and everyone is free to not buy. But the reality is that anything I have just under actual market price sells very quickly.

I am glad I do this for "fun". If I was trying to make a living I would already have been found under water beneath a tall bridge.

Not getting any easier out there.
 

cathouse01

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I can think of nothing worse than being a retailer in a booming market and not being able to get product to sell.😪 My local gun shop has almost no inventory, and it’s not just new guns. Being a small dealer he makes most of his profit off used guns (his margins on new guns are tiny) and almost no one is getting rid of anything in the current climate. In the old days he get some consignment guns and trade-ins, but now many people are holding on to everything for dear life.
 

Lxpony

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I still get emails, phone calls, and PMs here on NES asking for VERY specific guns that people want. Guns that were hard to find before COVID in some cases and people unhappy when I won't give them a date, time and place for them to get it. Apparently I am bad at gun sales because I won't sell them what they want.

The other interesting phenomenon is people buying multiple guns and wanting a discount for their multiple purchase. While pre-COVID I would reward such purchase behavior, it is a total disconnect from the current reality. I am product constrained, not customer constrained. What is the reason I would provide a discount in the current environment? I can try and explain this and many understand, but not everyone. The old maxim of "I am buying more, price should be less" is so ingrained. Adjusting for market conditions exceeds many peoples abilities.

Occasionally when I get a really popular gun in stock (think P320 X5 Legion or P365XL) hilarity can ensue. It is not likely that I acquired the gun through traditional channels, but it is more likely that I found some retailer somewhere that was significantly under pricing the market. Knowing the actual market price (think gunbroker completed auction history for the past week or similar), I grab it and then offer it for sale just below market price. Yes, the current market price is higher than you saw it back in January. I then get "arguments" over the price I am selling it for. People remember pre-COVID pricing, or see it out of stock but still listed for low prices on websites or "my friend got it for XXX". I have two choices: 1) have nothing in stock or 2) acquire by any means and sell at current fair market/reasonable profit. It sucks and everyone is free to not buy. But the reality is that anything I have just under actual market price sells very quickly.

I am glad I do this for "fun". If I was trying to make a living I would already have been found under water beneath a tall bridge.

Not getting any easier out there.

I guess I should consider myself lucky to have your cell and text you on a whim. My wife asks me whom I texting because of the look of excitement on my face when I text you asking for a inventory roster, I tell her in texting drug dealer, she knows that's code for "Mr. Crackpot"
 

cathouse01

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I guess I should consider myself lucky to have your cell and text you on a whim. My wife asks me whom I texting because of the look of excitement on my face when I text you asking for a inventory roster, I tell her in texting drug dealer, she knows that's code for "Mr. Crackpot"
Don’t laugh, I’ve probably spent way more on guns, ammo and accessories than many junkies have spent on drugs . It’s just that I can afford it better than most of them.
 
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