"There Is No Shortage?" Train Loads Of Lumber Stacked As Far As The Eye Can See

[bullseye]

One of the most important things we've learned over the past year is the vulnerability of global supply chains. Most notably, supply disruptions of lumber have catapulted prices to the moon.

The narrative touted in the public domain is that COVID-19 sparked a dramatic underestimate in capacity by sawmills early in the pandemic as the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to zero, sparking a housing boom. The influx of demand outpaced supply and has caused lumber prices to jump 340% from a year ago, according to Random Lengths.

In terms of output, the lumber industry is controlled by just a handful of firms, including Weyerhaeuser Co., Georgia-Pacific LLC, West Fraser Timber Co., Ltd., among others, which makes it easier for capacity to be controlled.

Maybe there's more to the lumber story that we're not being told and should be investigated more in-depth by journalists.

YouTube account "Ken's Karpentry" recently published a video of "huge quantities" of lumber sitting and not in lumberyards. The exact location of the video is not mentioned but could be near Lyndonville, Vermont.

The narrator in the video, perhaps it's Ken, but we're not sure, explains that a train depot has been transformed into a makeshift lumber yard. He said train loads of lumber coming out of Canada are offloaded here and then transported by tractor-trailer to lumberyards across the country.

He said, "I am astounded by how much lumber is here, and I am wondering why there is such a problem at lumber yards." He added the facility stretches 3/8 of a mile.

The video has more than 300,000 views and over 1,300 comments in just a few weeks.
One person said, "Gee, could it be to keep the price gouging and profits up?? This whole excuse that "it's due to covid" b*llsh!t has got to stop!"

"It's too bad there are no investigative reporters left in the world. This lumber story needs to be investigated and exposed," some else said.

Another person said:

"This is what happens when a few companies own the entire market."

And this person makes an interesting point:

"There is no lumber shortage. It's just Weyerhouse and GP wanting to drive up profits."

So could the lumber industry, controlled just by a few players, be pulling the playbook straight out of the diamond industry to limit supply to drive up prices?

 

[Asaltweapon]

Trailer loads are non stop heading south thru Maine.
Please remember that the truckers were still in mud season last week with posted roads and hauling was near zero.
Damn some people need to get out more.
Just don’t do it near me. I like the lack of people

 

[mac1911]

From what I have come to learn and what I hear from my. Construction friends is no shortage just a major distribution problem all because of the CoVid?
Not to mention any shipping delays ,

 

[07Mustang]

I would say that all that lumber is indeed sold.

The supply chain is basically broken. I work in wholesale lumber for a major player. Been doing it for 30+ years. I buy domestically and internationally. I have orders from last November that have not shipped. I bought some birch plywood from a mill in Canada this week, the lead time for shipment is the last week in August. That is 4 months out, if the market does break and prices fall, my company take the hit. I have a container that sat in Freeport in the Bahamas that came from Europe, 30 days I still have not received in my location in Florida. There is a mill in Mississippi that owns my company 7 truck loads, but ran out of raw material and can not produce the finished products. Glue and resigns that are used is particle board and MDF have all gone up in price. Oh and transportation has gone crazy as there are about 50 loads for every flat bed truck on the roads, and the lumber industry are cheap bastards when it comes to paying truckers., so lumber sits and other goods pay the prices, like produce, landscaping material.

International container rates have gone from $2000 per container to $10,000 per container and even paying that there is no space available from the far east to US. Retailers have already started bringing in Christmas products.

So if you want to see prices fall stop buying. when order files back up to the mills prices will fall but I don't see it happening until the 4th quarter of 2021 or first quarter of 2022.

 

[bullseye]

I'm repairing my deck and couldn't work on it since November, dropped a trailer hitch on my left foot and broke numerous bones. Went out and repaired a small section today, need 12 2x6x16 severe weather treated boards, 21 bucks apiece!! But, their available and I'll buy them tomorrow! Also the 2x6x12's I need!! I have almost 520 feet of deck, this is insane if I needed to just replace the top boards!!! Putting TREX down right now is more economical, I know it is in the long run!!

 

[walking wolf]

I would say that all that lumber is indeed sold.

The supply chain is basically broken. I work in wholesale lumber for a major player. Been doing it for 30+ years. I buy domestically and internationally. I have orders from last November that have not shipped. I bought some birch plywood from a mill in Canada this week, the lead time for shipment is the last week in August. That is 4 months out, if the market does break and prices fall, my company take the hit. I have a container that sat in Freeport in the Bahamas that came from Europe, 30 days I still have not received in my location in Florida. There is a mill in Mississippi that owns my company 7 truck loads, but ran out of raw material and can not produce the finished products. Glue and resigns that are used is particle board and MDF have all gone up in price. Oh and transportation has gone crazy as there are about 50 loads for every flat bed truck on the roads, and the lumber industry are cheap bastards when it comes to paying truckers., so lumber sits and other goods pay the prices, like produce, landscaping material.

International container rates have gone from $2000 per container to $10,000 per container and even paying that there is no space available from the far east to US. Retailers have already started bringing in Christmas products.

So if you want to see prices fall stop buying. when order files back up to the mills prices will fall but I don't see it happening until the 4th quarter of 2021 or first quarter of 2022.

This reminds me of another story I saw this week: at the moment, the massive leap in gasoline and diesel prices is being driven largely by a shortage of tanker-truck drivers. The COVID panic last year cut demand by so much that oil companies laid off a lot of their drivers. Now a lot of those guys have gone on to other jobs, so something like 25% of the tanker-truck fleet is sitting in parking lots for lack of drivers. (Normal is about 10% of the fleet parked.) The shortage of trucks creates a supply bottleneck, which of course drives the price up.

 

[FiremanBob]

I need to build a shed and a shelter for my new pigs. I'll do all of it with fresh-cut, local hemlock including the floors. Cheaper than plywood right now.

 

[headednorth]

One of the most important things we've learned over the past year is the vulnerability of global supply chains. Most notably, supply disruptions of lumber have catapulted prices to the moon.

The narrative touted in the public domain is that COVID-19 sparked a dramatic underestimate in capacity by sawmills early in the pandemic as the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to zero, sparking a housing boom. The influx of demand outpaced supply and has caused lumber prices to jump 340% from a year ago, according to Random Lengths.

In terms of output, the lumber industry is controlled by just a handful of firms, including Weyerhaeuser Co., Georgia-Pacific LLC, West Fraser Timber Co., Ltd., among others, which makes it easier for capacity to be controlled.

Maybe there's more to the lumber story that we're not being told and should be investigated more in-depth by journalists.

YouTube account "Ken's Karpentry" recently published a video of "huge quantities" of lumber sitting and not in lumberyards. The exact location of the video is not mentioned but could be near Lyndonville, Vermont.

The narrator in the video, perhaps it's Ken, but we're not sure, explains that a train depot has been transformed into a makeshift lumber yard. He said train loads of lumber coming out of Canada are offloaded here and then transported by tractor-trailer to lumberyards across the country.

He said, "I am astounded by how much lumber is here, and I am wondering why there is such a problem at lumber yards." He added the facility stretches 3/8 of a mile.

The video has more than 300,000 views and over 1,300 comments in just a few weeks.
One person said, "Gee, could it be to keep the price gouging and profits up?? This whole excuse that "it's due to covid" b*llsh!t has got to stop!"

Another person said:

And this person makes an interesting point:

So could the lumber industry, controlled just by a few players, be pulling the playbook straight out of the diamond industry to limit supply to drive up prices?

What did this location look like pre-Covid?

 

[07Mustang]

What did this location look like pre-Covid?

Couldn't tell you, but lumber is sold by mills and shipped to reloads by their customers. That lumber is sold by the mills before it is loaded on the cars. Also the statement that Georgia Pacific is one of the companies controlling the lumber market is inaccurate. This lumber is Western Canadian SPF, GP doesn't own one mill is Western Canada that manufactures this lumber, they own Southern Pine plywood mills, OSB mills in the Southeast USA and one in Ontario Canada and Southern Pine lumber mills.

Also the executives of these companies really don't want to jail or pay massive fines for violation of anti trust laws.

West Fraser is a Canadian Company that does own Western SPF mills as well as many Southern Pine mills in the US (mostly bought from International Paper several years ago when IP got out of the lumber and plywood business and put all their efforts into paper) and would love to buy GP mills to eliminate the competition, it would not pass the anti-trust muster.

 

[headednorth]

Couldn't tell you, but lumber is sold by mills and shipped to reloads by their customers. That lumber is sold by the mills before it is loaded on the cars. Also the statement that Georgia Pacific is one of the companies controlling the lumber market is inaccurate. This lumber is Western Canadian SPF, GP doesn't own one mill is Western Canada that manufactures this lumber, they own Southern Pine plywood mills, OSB mills in the Southeast USA and one in Ontario Canada and Southern Pine lumber mills.

Also the executives of these companies really don't want to jail or pay massive fines for violation of anti trust laws.

West Fraser is a Canadian Company that does own Western SPF mills as well as many Southern Pine mills in the US (mostly bought from International Paper several years ago when IP got out of the lumber and plywood business and put all their efforts into paper) and would love to buy GP mills to eliminate the competition, it would not pass the anti-trust muster.

The only reason I ask is because its relatively common for people to throw out stats and/or pics or vids that to some look out of the ordinary but to people in the know, its just business as usual. Videos of train loads of Bradley's stretching off into the distance, reports of X amount of mil aircraft in the air, "DHS bought X billion rounds of ammo last year!!!" type stories come to mind. Ok, so what do they usually buy? Maybe they buy that X billion rounds a year every year. Maybe that yard has more or less that amount of lumber sitting in it at any one time year after year. To me it looks like a shit ton of product sitting there but maybe its not any more than usual.

 

[Mountain]

Couldn't tell you, but lumber is sold by mills and shipped to reloads by their customers. That lumber is sold by the mills before it is loaded on the cars. Also the statement that Georgia Pacific is one of the companies controlling the lumber market is inaccurate. This lumber is Western Canadian SPF, GP doesn't own one mill is Western Canada that manufactures this lumber, they own Southern Pine plywood mills, OSB mills in the Southeast USA and one in Ontario Canada and Southern Pine lumber mills.

Also the executives of these companies really don't want to jail or pay massive fines for violation of anti trust laws.

West Fraser is a Canadian Company that does own Western SPF mills as well as many Southern Pine mills in the US (mostly bought from International Paper several years ago when IP got out of the lumber and plywood business and put all their efforts into paper) and would love to buy GP mills to eliminate the competition, it would not pass the anti-trust muster.

All good points.

Also, to those not used to seeing major distribution points for construction materials including lumber, the amount of lumber shown in the video is normal and perhaps a little 'light' for inventory.

A huge problem and a big headache at work is the current state of freight logistics for full truckload and full container volume. It's tough to book domestic trucks and brutal to book containers for overseas shipment. I'm sure part of the problem for lumber is logistics.

 

[Uzi2]

All the pallet companies and sawmills around here haven't missed a beat, their yards are full of lumber and Lowes has stacks of 7/16 OSB outside getting ruined in the rain.
Prices are highest I've ever seen.

 

[DJBrad]

All the pallet companies and sawmills around here haven't missed a beat, their yards are full of lumber and Lowes has stacks of 7/16 OSB outside getting ruined in the rain.
Prices are highest I've ever seen.

Ridiculous prices. 5/8 osb is $56 locally. Full on rape.

 

[DJBrad]

I need to build a shed and a shelter for my new pigs. I'll do all of it with fresh-cut, local hemlock including the floors. Cheaper than plywood right now.

Hemlock is such an under appreciated species. I have a unknown amount of 24” specimens on my woodlot.

 

[Mountain]

The only reason I ask is because its relatively common for people to throw out stats and/or pics or vids that to some look out of the ordinary but to people in the know, its just business as usual. Videos of train loads of Bradley's stretching off into the distance, reports of X amount of mil aircraft in the air, "DHS bought X billion rounds of ammo last year!!!" type stories come to mind. Ok, so what do they usually buy? Maybe they buy that X billion rounds a year every year. Maybe that yard has more or less that amount of lumber sitting in it at any one time year after year. To me it looks like a shit ton of product sitting there but maybe its not any more than usual.

The build up for Desert Storm was clearly above and beyond the norm. Maybe a full train of mixed equipment would be seen around Ft. Campbell now and then, but train after train full of M1 Abrams, HMMV's, and other equipment all painted for the desert was clearly something more. Daily training flights for helicopters was another indicator.

3/8 mile yard full of lumber? Pretty normal.

 

[MisterHappy]

All good points.

Also, to those not used to seeing major distribution points for construction materials including lumber, the amount of lumber shown in the video is normal and perhaps a little 'light' for inventory.

A huge problem and a big headache at work is the current state of freight logistics for full truckload and full container volume. It's tough to book domestic trucks and brutal to book containers for overseas shipment. I'm sure part of the problem for lumber is logistics.

For the trans-oceanic shipments, bring back log drives- the stuff floats, right?


People that are not in the business don't know how tight a lot of it is, in terms of capacity. I book occasional LTL shipments. Old Dominion is our preferred carrier, and they have a "4848" rate that's based on available space on the trucks, and it's often a lot less than the "regular" rate. Last Eastern Seaboard storm took out that service for almost 2 weeks. You could still book a shipment, but not cheaply.

 

[M60]

One of the most important things we've learned over the past year is the vulnerability of global supply chains. Most notably, supply disruptions of lumber have catapulted prices to the moon.

The narrative touted in the public domain is that COVID-19 sparked a dramatic underestimate in capacity by sawmills early in the pandemic as the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to zero, sparking a housing boom. The influx of demand outpaced supply and has caused lumber prices to jump 340% from a year ago, according to Random Lengths.

In terms of output, the lumber industry is controlled by just a handful of firms, including Weyerhaeuser Co., Georgia-Pacific LLC, West Fraser Timber Co., Ltd., among others, which makes it easier for capacity to be controlled.

Maybe there's more to the lumber story that we're not being told and should be investigated more in-depth by journalists.

YouTube account "Ken's Karpentry" recently published a video of "huge quantities" of lumber sitting and not in lumberyards. The exact location of the video is not mentioned but could be near Lyndonville, Vermont.

The narrator in the video, perhaps it's Ken, but we're not sure, explains that a train depot has been transformed into a makeshift lumber yard. He said train loads of lumber coming out of Canada are offloaded here and then transported by tractor-trailer to lumberyards across the country.

He said, "I am astounded by how much lumber is here, and I am wondering why there is such a problem at lumber yards." He added the facility stretches 3/8 of a mile.

The video has more than 300,000 views and over 1,300 comments in just a few weeks.
One person said, "Gee, could it be to keep the price gouging and profits up?? This whole excuse that "it's due to covid" b*llsh!t has got to stop!"

Another person said:

And this person makes an interesting point:

So could the lumber industry, controlled just by a few players, be pulling the playbook straight out of the diamond industry to limit supply to drive up prices?

That sight might seem like a lot of lumber to you, but trust me. It's not.

 

[milktree]

This podcast (not too long) reveals another factor in the wacky pricing of lumber.

The Strange Economics of the Lumber Market - The Journal. - WSJ Podcasts

There's a disconnect in the lumber market. The price of lumber is the highest it's ever been, but the price of the timber - the raw material - is at record lows. WSJ's Ryan Dezember on the paradox of the lumber market and tree farmer Joe Hopkins on how he's getting through this strange moment.

www.wsj.com

to;dl: the 2008 housing crisis put a lot of lumber mills out of business, so there isn’t a healthy manufacturing pipeline to turn the large lumber (trees) supply into dimensional lumber.

 

[Reeg]

What did this location look like pre-Covid?

That's the RCP Transit yard at Island Pond (Brighton) VT. Always look like that.

 

[Reeg]

 

[HARRYM]

Years ago Florida citrus growers were caught dumping rails cars of oranges to drive up the price.

Diamonds are mined only enough to keep the price high. They could mine so much of them it would be worth a piece of marble.

Market manipulation has happened since markets were created.

 

[HARRYM]

Another one of my favorites was a few years ago there were dozens of tankers off shore in in Texas and LA loaded with crude and no place to go. The refineries had decided to shut down for maintenance at the height of driving season.

 

[jkelly1229]

I work for one of the mentioned companies they shut their facilities down for covid.

The thing about supply is you don't make a ton just to sit around.

With the increase in home improvement projects... more people buying houses and the deficit you're already in due to plant shutdowns you're behind and catching up is going to be a while.

 

[pupchow]

It's Trump's fault again.

Homebuilders' Group Wants Trump to Act to Halt Lumber Price Surge

NAHB seeks boost in U.S. lumber production, launch of new lumber trade talks with Canada.

www.enr.com

 

[Dennis in MA]

No shortage of lumber today. No shortage of rice in 08. No shortage of electricity in CA during the massive brown-out in. . . 07. Most times the hoarders make short term $ and then get stuck with a pile of unwanted product. (Rice prices cratered for years after the BS in 08.)

 

[Asaltweapon]

It's Trump's fault again.

Homebuilders' Group Wants Trump to Act to Halt Lumber Price Surge

NAHB seeks boost in U.S. lumber production, launch of new lumber trade talks with Canada.

www.enr.com

Canada has been dumping product in the USA for years and the Canadian government subsidizes their lumber mills so the mills can afford to do it. My former boss owned a bunch of lumber mills down south and specialized in oak flooring.

 

[fshalor]

I would say that all that lumber is indeed sold.

The supply chain is basically broken. I work in wholesale lumber for a major player. Been doing it for 30+ years. I buy domestically and internationally. I have orders from last November that have not shipped. I bought some birch plywood from a mill in Canada this week, the lead time for shipment is the last week in August. That is 4 months out, if the market does break and prices fall, my company take the hit. I have a container that sat in Freeport in the Bahamas that came from Europe, 30 days I still have not received in my location in Florida. There is a mill in Mississippi that owns my company 7 truck loads, but ran out of raw material and can not produce the finished products. Glue and resigns that are used is particle board and MDF have all gone up in price. Oh and transportation has gone crazy as there are about 50 loads for every flat bed truck on the roads, and the lumber industry are cheap bastards when it comes to paying truckers., so lumber sits and other goods pay the prices, like produce, landscaping material.

International container rates have gone from $2000 per container to $10,000 per container and even paying that there is no space available from the far east to US. Retailers have already started bringing in Christmas products.

So if you want to see prices fall stop buying. when order files back up to the mills prices will fall but I don't see it happening until the 4th quarter of 2021 or first quarter of 2022.

Also. If we want to stop seeing glitches in the matrix like this; we need to ALL stop impulse-buying random crap all the time.

 

[Dench]

View: https://youtu.be/qOpSy34MHt4


They talk about a lot of it here in this podcast.

 

[SKumar]

I bought these last year for $3.78

 

[mwalsh9152]

I would say that all that lumber is indeed sold.

The supply chain is basically broken. I work in wholesale lumber for a major player. Been doing it for 30+ years. I buy domestically and internationally. I have orders from last November that have not shipped. I bought some birch plywood from a mill in Canada this week, the lead time for shipment is the last week in August. That is 4 months out, if the market does break and prices fall, my company take the hit. I have a container that sat in Freeport in the Bahamas that came from Europe, 30 days I still have not received in my location in Florida. There is a mill in Mississippi that owns my company 7 truck loads, but ran out of raw material and can not produce the finished products. Glue and resigns that are used is particle board and MDF have all gone up in price. Oh and transportation has gone crazy as there are about 50 loads for every flat bed truck on the roads, and the lumber industry are cheap bastards when it comes to paying truckers., so lumber sits and other goods pay the prices, like produce, landscaping material.

International container rates have gone from $2000 per container to $10,000 per container and even paying that there is no space available from the far east to US. Retailers have already started bringing in Christmas products.

So if you want to see prices fall stop buying. when order files back up to the mills prices will fall but I don't see it happening until the 4th quarter of 2021 or first quarter of 2022.

What do you think the market is going to do this year? Wondering if you are seeing any long term relief, or if we will see a repeat of last year with no lumber to be found, and surging prices again? Last summer my wife started a business making kids outdoor play equipment. We use all PT lumber, and I was driving all over trying to get lumber. Im trying to decide if I should take the gamble and just buy a ton this spring and hope that prices dont fall through the floor.