Ammo Prices Going Down?

[Cherokee_Outlaw]

With Copper, Lead, Fuel and other Raw Materials going down. When should we start to see a decline in Ammo Prices?


Just curious if anyone had any insight into Ammo.

Thanks!

 

[rcinma]

The only way the price will drop is if everyone stops buying it and it doesn't sell. Right now they can't seem to keep up with demand so I doubt it.

 

[drumenigma]

I don't see that happening anytime soon. It's not necessarily the cost of materials right now it is more the demand that has been driving prices. Companies simply are not producing volumes high enough to drive prices down. At least that is my theory.

 

[Ricochet]

The ammo manufacturers cannot make enough because their suppliers are backlogged too. I heard from a not so reliable source that one bullet company is 15 Million units backlogged and can only produce 5Mill per month full tilt. Many companies will be playing catch-up for months to come.

 

[Ray-500]

I don't see that happening anytime soon. It's not necessarily the cost of materials right now it is more the demand that has been driving prices. Companies simply are not producing volumes high enough to drive prices down. At least that is my theory.

Good theory. I believe that on the other end of this "recession", there is going to be another "boom". Prices for ammo will go even higher. My own approach is...get what you can afford now and hang onto it. (IMHO)

 

[Cherokee_Outlaw]

I don't see that happening anytime soon. It's not necessarily the cost of materials right now it is more the demand that has been driving prices. Companies simply are not producing volumes high enough to drive prices down. At least that is my theory.

What really is throwing me for a loop is.. Ammo seems to be in short supply..

BUT Federal just let workers go because they got caught up with the demand.

Is the demand really that high or are the cartridge companys cutting back production to drive the price up to return a better profit?


Below is the article about Federal.

Federal Cartridge cutting workers this month
Tuesday, 13 January 2009
by Mandy Moran Froemming
Union Editor

As many as 80 workers are being let go at Anoka’s Federal Cartridge ammunition plant this month.

Alliant Techsystems (ATK), the parent company of the local ammunitions maker, has announced the cut backs as a result of the ammunitions maker reducing a backlog of orders that started more than two years ago.

The local plant manufactures ammunitions used by sportsmen, police departments and the U.S. government.

“In 2006 ATK and Federal Cartridge ramped up its production due to a backlog of demand it was experiencing at the time,” said Amanda Covington, ATK director of communications. “We added a number of employees at that time.”

While the backlog is not completely cleared, said Covington, it has been reduced to a point where the company does not need the extra workers on the project.

The majority of the 70 to 80 employees affected were notified Thursday and Friday of last week and Covington said depending on the department, work will wrap up between now and the end of the month.

The lay-offs included a mix of hourly and salaried employees.

This is the second round of job cuts at Federal Cartridge in recent months. Forty to 50 employees were let go in November, for the same reason, said Covington.

At the same time last week, 70 to 80 people were also given notice they would be losing their jobs at ATK’s Lewiston, Idaho, plant.

After lay-offs, approximately 900 people will be employed at Federal Cartridge in Anoka.

ATK is a $4.6 billion aerospace and defense company with over 17,000 employees in 21 states. Based in Eden Prairie, it has been ranked the 14th largest defence contractor by Defence News and is the largest supplier of munitions and solid rocket propulsion.

Federal Cartridge was acquired by Alliant Techsystems in 2001 when the local company was sold by Lehman Brothers. Federal’s ownership history also includes Charles L. Horn, a private group of investors and Blount International, Inc.

ATK is a spin-off from Honeywell, starting in the 1990s

According to the company, ATK is the world’s largest manufacturer for small-caliber ammunitions. Its armament systems division includes both small and medium-caliber ammunitions, medium-caliber gun systems, sport shooting accessories and reloading supplies along with advanced propellant and energetics.

Sporting ammunition and accessories are manufactured on site at Federal. Brands produced at the Anoka plant includes Federal Premium Ammunition, CCI, Speer, Fusion, Estate Cartridge, American Eagle and Blazer.

 

[clinotus]

The ammo manufacturers cannot make enough because their suppliers are backlogged too. I heard from a not so reliable source that one bullet company is 15 Million units backlogged and can only produce 5Mill per month full tilt. Many companies will be playing catch-up for months to come.

Indeed, demand is pretty high at the moment. We also have to consider the price of the commodity components and what speculators are doing to those markets.

 

[JuergenG]

At least we see the prices for U.S. made bullets coming down a bit over here.
The Sierra's skyrocketed in price when the Euro was at U.S. $ .80 and kept a high level pricing up until now - where the Euro is around U.S. $ 1.30 ( and it was 1.60 in summer....).
About time for the ammo prices to get back to an acceptable level.
Talk about a brick of CCI .22 SV for $ 31

 

[Cherokee_Outlaw]

Good theory. I believe that on the other end of this "recession", there is going to be another "boom". Prices for ammo will go even higher. My own approach is...get what you can afford now and hang onto it. (IMHO)

Wouldn't this be cutting there throats?

I would bet that with the high prices of ammo the past few years.. more and more people has pretty much "retired" from shooting or even found something else to do instead of guns.

I have no clue.. just thinking out loud.. but something keeps telling me something else is involved...

 

[drgrant]

With Copper, Lead, Fuel and other Raw Materials going down. When should we start to see a decline in Ammo Prices?

Fat chance of that happening anytime soon.

Demand is stiff, between two wars and Obama scare fun, among other things.

"UN Gun pussy" treaties are not helping things either, which limits milsurp imports from a lot of places.

-Mike

 

[Ray-500]

Wouldn't this be cutting there throats?

I would bet that with the high prices of ammo the past few years.. more and more people has pretty much "retired" from shooting or even found something else to do instead of guns.

I have no clue.. just thinking out loud.. but something keeps telling me something else is involved...

Don't think so. Shooters are shooters. This is our hobby/sport/interest...put any name on it you want. I did not even mention self defense. Anyone who has more than a "passing interest" is not going to go away.

 

[Blitz1]

Well I think all of you people need to stop buying ammo.

 

[Ray-500]

Well I think all of you people need to stop buying ammo.

I agree. More for me that way.

 

[supton]

Probably makes sense for the ammo makers to cut workers. If the economy stays tanked, eventually demand will shrink--but with a backlog they have work for months ahead, especially if they reduce capacity. If the economy rebounds, it shouldn't be that hard to rehire.

 

[z0mbi]

I was under the impression that the reason prices haven't come down is because manufacturer's buy their raw materials in bulk. If they bought 6/mo to a years worth of stock when the prices were ridiculous, you're not going to see prices come down until they run through those materials.

 

[Blitz1]

I agree. More for me that way.

Exactly.




Hey wait...

 

[Ray-500]

Exactly.




Hey wait...

 

[cookingaway]

more reloaders wont make a differance?

 

[Ray-500]

more reloaders wont make a differance?

Grin, look at gas and oil. Right now oil is below $40 bbl. Yet gas prices are going up. Why? Oil is being stopped from being offloaded. Tankers are going around in circles and not docking.

Refineries are cutting back on production. They are going into "extended maintenance". The object is to dry up supply so prices will rise. OPEC is just another piece of the picture.

More reloaders will bring prices down....but can they make money? If not, why bother? No point doing something if you can't make a profit on it. Would you work for free or next to nothing?

 

[cookingaway]

i see,i thought i read that dillions are on back order so i was thinking more people are loading their own ammo. maybe stocks on shelfs and prices would level out?but if ammo makers are holding back thats bogus.id like to learn more about loading,ive been saving my brass for a long time.

 

[Garys]

Grin, look at gas and oil. Right now oil is below $40 bbl. Yet gas prices are going up. Why? Oil is being stopped from being offloaded. Tankers are going around in circles and not docking.

Refineries are cutting back on production. They are going into "extended maintenance". The object is to dry up supply so prices will rise. OPEC is just another piece of the picture.

More reloaders will bring prices down....but can they make money? If not, why bother? No point doing something if you can't make a profit on it. Would you work for free or next to nothing?

The reason the tankers are going around is that all storage facilities in the US are full. The reason that refineries are cutting back production is that gasoline demand keeps falling as more and more companies close or cut back and more people are not working and thus are not driving to work or other places for recreation.

I think what we are seeing in rising gas prices is the leading edge of inflation. That's going to spread to other commodities as the porkulus bill becomes law and starts to further depress the economy. The Democrats are quite cynically manipulating the country into a deeper recession than it would otherwise experience for political gain. The porkulus law will do nothing to help the economy and will expand the number of people on welfare and other hand out programs significantly. At the same time, the bill contains language that will move the country to socialized healthcare without any debate on the provisions.

People who think that there is some sort of "big oil" conspiracy play right into the hands of people like Al Bore, Pres. Obama, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid. Once they get the OK to do things like ration profits, executive salaries, production levels, and healthcare, they will expand on that power. If someone thinks that it's OK to limit executive salaries, salaries of public employees, and salaries of doctors and nurses, that's fine. Just don't complain when they decide that IT people, carpenters, plumbers, and others are also making "too much" money and start to set those salaries too.

You can't have it both ways and tell me that you're a capitalist. The government setting salaries is Socialism, pure and simple.

Be very careful in what you ask for because you might get something other than what you thought you were asking for.

The people that were against the Patriot Act were right and people (like me) were wrong. Now that the Socialists have the keys to the kingdom we are going to see abuses of the like that the Republicans would never have dreamed of. Don't expect that the media will point that out because they will be protected as long as they don't criticize their friends in the Democratic Party.

 

[FiremanBob]

Not to hijack, but first an observation on the gas price: Gasoline demand must be up in the last few months due to changes in driving behavior. Last summer people slowed down alot - average traffic speed on Rt. 24 in eastern MA fell from 75 to 65 with very few people bombing down the road at 75+. Now I'm regularly being passed while going 75. That 15% speed increase probably equates to a 20% increase in fuel consumption.

As to ammo, everywhere I look HD-useful or .223 ammo is priced very high and snapped up as soon as available. Seems the minimum price for .223 on the net is $350/1000 and that doesn't last long. Higher-grade ammo is more like $500/1000 or more.

I do believe that people are stocking up due to fear of a government ban or at least much worse restrictions. I know I am. Whether those fears are reasonable or not is a separate thread.

 

[maee]

While the backlog is not completely cleared, said Covington, it has been reduced to a point where the company does not need the extra workers on the project.

My guess is that they are predicting a precipitous drop in demand related to the recession and maybe the winding down of activities in Iraq. Thus, they are preemptively cutting labor since they are "almost caught up" now.

My theory has always been that demand will eventually fall off after (1) people run out of money and (2) the Obama scare dies down.

 

[drgrant]

more reloaders wont make a differance?

While I am sure there are a lot more reloaders now, most people are still too lazy to reload, or some of them simply don't have the space for a
setup.

I know, because I used to be one of those people. Then after I started I was like "why the hell didn't I start doing this YEARS ago?"

-Mike

 

[TomH]

I laughed when I saw the post title!

 

[Bill Nance]

I just ordered some XXXXX 9mm bullets today at a sale price. They're back ordered til Feb 28th.

Between the 2 wars and the Obama Frenzy™ I think it will be a while.

 

[Bill Nance]

Good theory. I believe that on the other end of this "recession", there is going to be another "boom". Prices for ammo will go even higher. My own approach is...get what you can afford now and hang onto it. (IMHO)

Hang onto it? As in not shoot it? Are you CRAZY?