I've chewed on this a bit, and in the end, I don't know how I DON'T go for my AR. For the moment, I put aside all the sub-discussions of "bug-in" vs. "bug-out" and just tried to focus on the best all around long gun for SHTF scenarios. Not one person on this board or elsewhere can convince me that I can fully defend my home from even a semi-motivated bunch of thugs of even a few individuals, for any worthwhile length of time. I know what I would do to smoke out someone from a typical stick-built sububan home if I had to, and like most of you, it doesn't require a whole lot of creativity. Just a few matches and a little gasoline, right? So having eliminated that as a concern (well, not concern, but maybe an issue) I tried to reduce it to the most likely problem set that has me reaching for a rifle, and 95% of the issues are related to defending myself and my family in the widest set of realistic circumstances.
Realistically, I am not going to be hunting for food either. I could break the rules of the OP and say that I'm gonna have my Ruger Mark III or my old Ithaca lever-action single shot .22 LR with me, but thats not playing fair regarding the OP.
I just totally removed hunting from the equation because it just ain't gonna happen for at least five reasons that I can think of. And no doubt there are more than that!
I'm very lucky (or cursed) in that I have the real world options of reaching into the safe for a variety of SHTF-type guns, including a SOCOM II, a loaded M1A, and an FAL clone (with an 7.62 ACOG rtg for either). I also have an M4 clone with Eotech and have a bunch of parts in a box that almost make up an SPR clone. I also have a WASR 10. And more ammo than I could carry for any one of these. So this is just a bit more than an academic exercise. (apart from the world ending part.
So, with hunting out, and playing the odds, and on a cost-benefit analysis, how much do I really have to worry having the ability to take a 500 yard shot to deal with a problem? In a SHTF scenario? If you're honest with yourself, not much. Same with defeating barriers like car doors and walls. I mean, whats the likelihood of needing to do any of that?
AR: Easier to carry both in terms of the gun and a respectable amount of rounds, easy to maintain, ammo should be almost as plentiful as .308 even if production stopped under SHTF conditions (given the huge surge in popularity of these guns in the past 10 years) and it does just about everything I can imagine needing a long gun for in a SHTF scenario.
No matter how I do the math, it keeps coming up 5.56.
Ozman