I'd guess DC will first try for an en banc rehearing (normally appellate cases are decided by a 3 judge panel; rehearing en banc means you get a hearing before the entire circuit, say 20 judges). Whoever loses there will go for cert.
And I'd give HIGH odds on a grant.
1. The last time a 2nd Amendment case went up, the Silvy.. Silvyera ... I forget how to spell it, the Supremes held a conference (private vote) and ordered the state to respond to the petition. Then they held a second conference and didn't take it. That tells me it was very close, there were enough fence-sitters to have granted it.
2. The Chief Justice in confirmation hearings showed a lot of interest and as much as said he'd vote for cert.
3. It's now two Circuits splitting for an individual right, not one.
4. The other Emerson, held for a right but found a way to uphold the statute. This time the statute was struck down, a much clearer conflict in terms of result.
5. It'll be all over the front page of the Washington Post tomorrow. Justices are human and read the papers.