DC gun ban reversal?

Here's David Hardy's take on what to expect.

I'd guess DC will first try for an en banc rehearing (normally appellate cases are decided by a 3 judge panel; rehearing en banc means you get a hearing before the entire circuit, say 20 judges). Whoever loses there will go for cert.

And I'd give HIGH odds on a grant.

1. The last time a 2nd Amendment case went up, the Silvy.. Silvyera ... I forget how to spell it, the Supremes held a conference (private vote) and ordered the state to respond to the petition. Then they held a second conference and didn't take it. That tells me it was very close, there were enough fence-sitters to have granted it.

2. The Chief Justice in confirmation hearings showed a lot of interest and as much as said he'd vote for cert.

3. It's now two Circuits splitting for an individual right, not one.

4. The other Emerson, held for a right but found a way to uphold the statute. This time the statute was struck down, a much clearer conflict in terms of result.

5. It'll be all over the front page of the Washington Post tomorrow. Justices are human and read the papers.

As it stands currently, the majority of DC's handgun ban is gone; they have start issuing new handgun licenses and allowing licensees to have assembled, unlocked handguns in their homes when needed. None of this would preclude MA-type safe storage regulations or discretionary licensing. That will only change if DC appeals and gets a reversal, either by the entire circuit court, or the Supreme Court. Realistically, put this one down as "pending" until the Supreme Court either rules or refuses cert.

Ken
 
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