NYT: “The Tipping Point” - Yet Another Gun Story

MaverickNH

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” While a majority of gun owners are white, conservative, male and from rural areas, some surveys have detected an uptick in those who are not. One by Harvard researchers found that among people who purchased their first gun between 2019 and 2021, 20 percent were Black, 20 percent were Hispanic and approximately half were women...”

And then they tell the stories of five new gun owners, all chosen to lead to the conclusion we’re near “The Tipping Point”. Silly liberals don’t even know it’s called “Go Time”. Don’t tell them our secret code…

“It’s Go Time!”

“Yeah? Where are we going? Am I dressed right?”

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Blacks and Hispanics are each less than 20% of the population. The article says that Black new gun owners were 20% of buyers and Hispanics were also 20%.

What are new gun owners?

Is that a thing?

Of do they mean that 20% and 20% are of all gun buyers on those years.

No matter, I can imagine more “minorities” - Blacks, Hispanics, and women arming themselves.

That is what I call common sense.
 
Blacks and Hispanics are each less than 20% of the population. The article says that Black new gun owners were 20% of buyers and Hispanics were also 20%.

What are new gun owners?

Is that a thing?

Of do they mean that 20% and 20% are of all gun buyers on those years.

No matter, I can imagine more “minorities” - Blacks, Hispanics, and women arming themselves.

That is what I call common sense.


Research funded by RW Johnson, a foundation with declared anti-gun intentions, with authors from JHU Center for Gun Violence Solution - no bias declared, of course.

Opt-in online panels have their known flaws. But the authors commit a cardinal sin in asking leading questions that match their desired conclusions - did you buy your first gun due to concern about racial or political violence? While positive responses were flat across Dem/Ind/REP respondents for the racial violence question, Dems were double Reps for the political violence question, with ~1/3rd of Dems responding positively.

Confidence Intervals for minority populations (Black, Hispanic, Asian) were huge on Odds Ratios, spanning an order of magnitude for Blacks/Racial Violence, despite over sampling. Were I a reviewer, this article wouldn’t get published in a top-tier journal - and it wasn’t (Impact Factor 2.5 compared to 96 for New England J of Medicine).

If they did the same study today and broke out Jews as a category, I’m sure they’re see those numbers skyrocketed. But progressive academics would never do such a study.

Overall, 11% of respondents reported purchasing a gun since 1/1/20, 35% for the first time. Among recent purchasers, larger proportions of Democrat, Black, Asian, and Hispanic respondents were new gun owners than Republican or white respondents. Compared to prior owners, odds were 4.5-times higher that new gun owners’ recent purchase was motivated by racial violence and 3.2-times higher for political violence.
Majority support was found for protective gun policies, with few differences by purchase recency or motivations. The only policy for which support by new and prior gun owners differed significantly was the permit-to-purchase policy (76% v. 63%, respectively). Similarly, few significant differences in support were observed when stratifying by purchase motivation. Notably, both those who reported recent purchase motivations of racial violence and of political violence expressed significantly higher support for a “stand-your-ground” policy compared to those who did not report such motivations.


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