People are worried about an outright near-term reversal of
Heller, the way SCOTUS reversed
Bowers v. Hardwick (upholding state sodomy laws in 1986) with
Lawrence v. Texas less than 20 years later, in 2003.
If SCOTUS ends up swinging more liberal, as a result of an appointment by Obama or a (D) successor, I doubt you'll see an outright reversal of
Heller, but you will see the Court countenancing more laws that chip away at 2A around the edges and make it a right that's more difficult to exercise. Especially at the state and local level, in the usual crop of "anti-" states. You also won't see major decisions invalidating things like state-level AWBs, onerous license-to-own systems, or expanding the right to carry.
At risk of
I think it's entirely appropriate to draw an analogy to
Roe v. Wade.
Heller is to gun rights what
Roe v. Wade was to abortion. Both are controversial decisions that firmly establish rights in a particular area, and that have provided a lightning rod for opponents of those respective rights, who think the decision is founded on questionable legal theories and constitutes "legislating from the bench". It's theorized by many that
Roe kickstarted political activism among evangelical Christians. My own
ex-recto theory is that the Left's current focus on gun control as their next big social issue, is a result of
Heller and
McDonald.
It's been 42 years since
Roe. The court has swung conservative since the mid 1980s--about 30 of those 40 years--but we've seen no signs of a reversal of
Roe. What we have seen is an increase in the number of restrictions around abortion that have made it harder to get one. Bans on late-term abortions. Waiting periods. Requirements for invasive ultrasounds. Requirements that doctors have admitting privileges at a nearby hospital. All sorts of laws chipping away at the right to an abortion around the margins, such that in a few states it's become a right that's impossible for many, especially the impoverished, to exercise. (
E.g. you need to spend the better part of a day traveling to a big city that may be hundreds of miles away and spend the night in a motel room waiting out a waiting period, then have the procedure, then travel home. All while losing 2-3 days' pay.)
Similarly, the antis are going to spend the next half-century trying to chip away at
Heller around the edges.