Gold and silver prices are down

[Coyote33]

$599.50/roll of 25 2022 Maples on Ebay from Modern Coin Mart...
$23.98/coin before tax...
Roll of 25 2022 Canada 1 oz Silver Maple Leaf $5 Coins GEM BU SKU66244 | eBay
View attachment 675376

Remember this price?

 

[steven grammont]

Silver creeping back up

 

[steven grammont]

Silver creeping back up

And then went below $30 again

 

[DJBrad]

I wonder if going to cash is a good thing for miner positions. It seems any banner financials will be overshadowed by recession fears.

 

[meh]

Puzzles:

1. Why is PSLV down 2% and SLV up slightly (at the time of this writing)?
2. Why did treasury yields go up so much today? Liquidity issues?

 

[Freddy Q]

Puzzles:

1. Why is PSLV down 2% and SLV up slightly (at the time of this writing)?
2. Why did treasury yields go up so much today? Liquidity issues?

I cannot understand for the life of me the movements of PSLV and SLV the past few days/weeks

 

[DJBrad]

Puzzles:

1. Why is PSLV down 2% and SLV up slightly (at the time of this writing)?
2. Why did treasury yields go up so much today? Liquidity issues?

I think a liquidity crisis is at hand meh.


I can’t fathom the amount of debt burden out there and the need to refinance (particularly the Federal government) in the next 3-6 months.

 

[meh]

I cannot understand for the life of me the movements of PSLV and SLV the past few days/weeks

Sometimes one will be up or down by a half percentage point difference, but I haven't seen a discrepancy this large before. Sometimes people know things I don't. Just wondering if I'm missing something important there. Otherwise, I expect they'll come back together before long.

 

[Individualist]

.

Sometimes one will be up or down by a half percentage point difference, but I haven't seen a discrepancy this large before. Sometimes people know things I don't. Just wondering if I'm missing something important there. Otherwise, I expect they'll come back together before long.

Yeah, on any given day they can be a bit wacky, but longer term they will track pretty well. Close enough to capture the trend.

 

[Varmint]

I cannot understand for the life of me the movements of PSLV and SLV the past few days/weeks

It’s the volatility. You can have investors buying SLV at the same time silver futures and spot are going down, or vice versa so that causes distortions.

PSLV buys physical only when the price goes up - so if silver drops and then pops, they end up paying more for silver than their stock ticker’s value reflects. It should even out over time.

 

[richc]

It’s a beautiful day in the neighborhood…

 

[steven grammont]

 

[meh]

Trump pauses tariffs, probably just to isolate China and for no other reason, and everything rips higher. The NASDAQ is up 11.5%. Even crude oil is up over 5%. So basically, the market still believes the US economy is strong and resilient, and stocks only went down in the first place because of the tariffs. OK, whatever. Just goes to show that, for the markets, the perception of reality matters more than reality itself.

 

[DJBrad]

Trump pauses tariffs, probably just to isolate China and for no other reason, and everything rips higher. The NASDAQ is up 11.5%. Even crude oil is up over 5%. So basically, the market still believes the US economy is strong and resilient, and stocks only went down in the first place because of the tariffs. OK, whatever. Just goes to show that, for the markets, the perception of reality matters more than reality itself.

It’s based on this and the volatility that I have a large cash position now.

 

[DJBrad]

With the volatile swings is this not clearly a bear market environment with face ripping rallies? I can’t see another scenario to explain it. Not the same history but it rhymes.

 

[Varmint]

Trump pauses tariffs, probably just to isolate China and for no other reason, and everything rips higher. The NASDAQ is up 11.5%. Even crude oil is up over 5%. So basically, the market still believes the US economy is strong and resilient, and stocks only went down in the first place because of the tariffs. OK, whatever. Just goes to show that, for the markets, the perception of reality matters more than reality itself.

The Treasury market was collapsing, the 10 year rate has never moved up 0.7% in two days, at a time when rates should be dropping as stocks crash. It’s why gold was up $100 before the announcement.

The stock market went down cause the tariffs were going to cause a global recession. Now they’re relieved of course.

 

[Varmint]

With the volatile swings is this not clearly a bear market environment with face ripping rallies? I can’t see another scenario to explain it. Not the same history but it rhymes.

I see it as Trump threatened to crash the global economy and then backed off when it was clear he might crash the Treasury market.

So at this point do we go back to normal? I think temporarily we do, but the elephant in the room is still there, the interest on the debt.

 

[meh]

The Treasury market was collapsing, the 10 year rate has never moved up 0.7% in two days. It’s why gold was up $100 before the announcement.

The stock market went down cause the tariffs were going to cause a global recession. Now they’re relieved of course.

The treasury market is the story, IMHO, and I suspect it is a story that has only tangentially to do with tariffs insofar as the tariffs made the stock market decline.

I think there was already a globally synchronized recession going on before Trump's tariffs. Hell, China's economy has been in the crapper for more than a year now. The only question was whether the US would be able to sit this one out, and it hasn't been looking that good. What the tariffs threatened to do was to push a global recession into global depression. However, I argue that the global recession remains, and the early effect of it on the data is why the stock market has been moving mostly sideways YTD. That's why I think the market is showing its insanity with a rally of this magnitude. Investors should not be very much mollified by the pausing of reciprocal tariffs that were very likely going to be negotiated away within weeks or months, anyway. Hell, even the 10% that still remains on every country would be a disaster if it actually raised prices by that much, which is the usual oversimplified thinking. If they were right to be scared before, they should still be quite scared, IMHO.

 

[not new guy]

Don’t underestimate the effects of algorithms chasing headlines either.

 

[Varmint]

The treasury market is the story, IMHO, and I suspect it is a story that has only tangentially to do with tariffs insofar as the tariffs made the stock market decline.

I think there was already a globally synchronized recession going on before Trump's tariffs. Hell, China's economy has been in the crapper for more than a year now. The only question was whether the US would be able to sit this one out, and it hasn't been looking that good. What the tariffs threatened to do was to push a global recession into global depression. However, I argue that the global recession remains, and the early effect of it on the data is why the stock market has been moving mostly sideways YTD. That's why I think the market is showing its insanity with a rally of this magnitude. Investors should not be very much mollified by the pausing of reciprocal tariffs that were very likely going to be negotiated away within weeks or months, anyway. Hell, even the 10% that still remains on every country would be a disaster if it actually raised prices by that much, which is the usual oversimplified thinking. If they were right to be scared before, they should still be quite scared, IMHO.

I agree. I think it was the mother of all short covering rallies. I see it in my crappy junior mining stocks that no one would have bought today except panicking shorts.

So much of our economy is dependent on China. Imagine you have say, an MRI machine, that uses some small parts from a supplier who imports from China. That supplier stops importing cause he doesn’t want to pay 200% tariffs, and now you can’t build your MRI system without the missing parts. Our economy is completely intertwined with China. The ripple effect will be huge. Also China is the top market for many of our high tech companies.

And while individual tariffs aren’t inflationary, a blanket 10% tariff on every country is absolutely inflationary, at least short term, cause you can’t avoid the tariff by changing suppliers. Or companies could eat some or all of the tariff, which will tank earnings. Inflation or lower earnings are both negative for stocks.

Finally, this whole thing has been disruptive, so as you said, things weren’t good before the tariff adventure, they are worse now.

 

[Coyote33]

I cannot understand for the life of me the movements of PSLV and SLV the past few days/weeks

OK, I am not into this stuff like some of you guys. What is PSLV and SLV?

 

[Coyote33]

but the elephant in the room is still there, the interest on the debt.

China! Or is that the same thing?

 

[Varmint]

OK, I am not into this stuff like some of you guys. What is PSLV and SLV?

SLV is the big silver ETF. It's backed by physical silver but it also uses derivatives, so you can't really count on it if things get crazy. I wouldn't buy SLV long term, only as a trade.

PSLV is Eric Sprott's physical silver trust. PSLV cannot issue shares without owning the physical silver to back it. While it's in theory safer than SLV, it has some issues with it as well. Still, I'd buy that over SLV if the goal is long term. PSLV can be redeemed for physical silver but only in large amounts.

 

[meh]

I agree. I think it was the mother of all short covering rallies.

I hadn't thought about it that way, but that seems about right: a whole market short squeeze.

 

[Trafficdiver]

OK, I am not into this stuff like some of you guys. What is PSLV and SLV?

An IOU for an ounce of silver.

 

[In God We Trust]

Because the Maple Leaf is 99.99% silver , and the Eagle is 99.9%. That's what he states.........

Maple Leafs have a smaller mark up also in my experience. Spot silver is spot silver, so saving a couple bucks an ounce adds up.

However, there may be some value in owning the easily recognizable American Eagles, but it’s not like Maple Leafs are uncommon either.

 

[Coyote33]

An IOU for an ounce of silver.

Oh. So it is like a stock, not actual silver. No thanks. That seems to go against the premise of having actual silver you can hold.

 

[Win]

Maple Leafs have a smaller mark up also in my experience. Spot silver is spot silver, so saving a couple bucks an ounce adds up.

However, there may be some value in owning the easily recognizable American Eagles, but it’s not like Maple Leafs are uncommon either.

I’ve made room for both in my collection but I agree with your sentiment

 

[Trafficdiver]

Oh. So it is like a stock, not actual silver. No thanks. That seems to go against the premise of having actual silver you can hold.

If you have 10,000 ounces you can allegedly get delivery but no one ever has.

 

[Varmint]

Maple Leafs have a smaller mark up also in my experience. Spot silver is spot silver, so saving a couple bucks an ounce adds up.

However, there may be some value in owning the easily recognizable American Eagles, but it’s not like Maple Leafs are uncommon either.

Eagles are expensive cause the US mint always limits production for who knows what reason.

Oh. So it is like a stock, not actual silver. No thanks. That seems to go against the premise of having actual silver you can hold.

There are places where you can buy gold or silver and they'll store it in a vault for you. I haven't really looked into that but might someday if my mining stocks play out.