prepping to survive. Bugging in VS bugging out

[alphawolf]

Dave,
I know my survival skills......Next to nothing, no matter how much I practice. Trying to survive with Wife and 3 kids in tow, I assume I have better chances of staying put with my arsenal and dogs. And I know most of my neighbors are not gun owners, advantage me. I will take all their possessions as needed to have my family survive. My wife can shoot, My oldest boy can shoot, I have 2 dogs for "alarms' and an inground pool for water.

Im staying put as long as I can.

 

[AlwaysBeClosing]

Dave,
And I know most of my neighbors are not gun owners, advantage me. I will take all their possessions as needed to have my family survive.

 

[Silverguns6]

Dave,
I know my survival skills......Next to nothing, no matter how much I practice. Trying to survive with Wife and 3 kids in tow, I assume I have better chances of staying put with my arsenal and dogs. And I know most of my neighbors are not gun owners, advantage me. I will take all their possessions as needed to have my family survive. My wife can shoot, My oldest boy can shoot, I have 2 dogs for "alarms' and an inground pool for water.

Im staying put as long as I can.

Good perspective lol.
Sadly, my fiance is not a gun person, but she can shoot pretty well. We have a daughter on the way, shes due in August..Hopefully she will take an interest in daddys scary-awesome warhammers.
We have two cats..Yay us..nothing they can contribute when SHTF..Meat..Thats about it. When we are out of food for a few days and we need to eat..Those cats will start to look like rabbit. Yumm.
Because I know I could never hold my own group going solo in a SHTF scenario, that is why I really wanted a group. One other member is married and has a young daughter but he has skills and nothing but endless knowledge and skills. He had spent 2 years living homeless and 100% self sufficent and self reliable/sustainable.
I wish I had a pool......my neigbor does though so that saves me some cash.

How long do you believe you will be able to stay in your home once all hell breaks loose? Are your kids younger (under 15)? Reason being is kids grow, do you have 1-3 years of clothes stored away for them to grow into? Food wise, whats your plan there? do you have seed banks or any means to grow and produce fresh food? I guess everthing in that extent depends on how long you think you will need to bug in for. Then again, a true TRUE prepper would be prepared to live self-reliant for 10+ years and have the gear, knowledge and means to do so. I am set up for a 3 year scenario right now, if when SHTF I take to the streets and snatch what I need/want, I could extend my "doomsday time" to 4-5 years.
-Dave

 

[Projectile]

Some interesting toughts in this thread. I have a place in NH that is about 100 miles from where I live here in MA. With two kids and a wife, the ability to navigate to our "bug out" location will be highly dependent on the type of SHTF scenario that unfolds. My base case scenario, that is the scenario I view as having the highest probability of occuring relative to other SHTF events, would be some sort of economic collapse/upheaval that unfolds quickly, but gives people a chance to mobilize safely. The classical survivalists claim that the cities will be the worst place to be, while modern surivival writers, (FerFal, for example) argue that rural areas will be death traps. The argument against a rural bugout location in this regard is based off of what happened in Argentina, where rapes and murders were more prevalent in the rural farming areas due to lack of police, etc. Roving gangs took over these areas fairly easily. In my case, IF safe travel is possible north, then we bug out, as I have family literally next door, along with local knowledge having grown up there.

The difficulty lies in trying to allocate resources to each location given various constraints. I know fully well that IF safe travel is not possible staying put is the ONLY option, so I can't put 100% of my resources into our NH place. I have a decision tree framework that I use to help plan for a variety of scenarios, but even then you can't plan for everything.

 

[Rider]

I will take all their possessions as needed to have my family survive.

Seriously? How do you think your wife and kids will deal with the inevitable end-result of this? I assume you want your family to be both mentally and physically sound, which typically requires maintaining some semblance of humanity.

 

[alphawolf]

Ok, since we like to role play, SHTF. We bug out for X amount of time, and we run out of food. We ate the dogs, and there is nothing left. Magen in the streets like the LA riots, looters everywhere. Kids are crying from hunger. What would you do?

I'm going out to find food no matter what I need to do. Right or wrong?

 

[Rider]

Eat the looters.

Your post made it sound like looting the neighbors was the first choice. I'm sure that there are many people out there who have no qualms about that. I'll reserve judgment, and when you are desperate and starving, you do what you have to do. I'm just pointing out, as came around early in this thread, that many people are not mentally equipped to deal with the reality you are painting.

If you are somewhat prepped and you are out of food, your neighbors are probably out of food, all the dogs are eaten, and you're getting to that special point where you go hunting and come back with meat, not animals.

I've got 20 bottles of barbeque sauce on the back shelf, so I'm good to go.

 

[AllaSnackbah]

subbing for later

 

[MisterHappy]

The big problem that I see with the theoretical SHTF stuff is that most of the "fiction" predicates the end of society on a massive, nearly instant, die-off.

This is not the likely scenario.

The real problem is that people, as a whole are too complacent. When the MWRA water pipe had the little oopsie a couple of years back, the fact that there might be a boil order for Boston was a big, big deal.

And there was no real problem, only inconvenience.

If there is a real, severe interruption of services, the people that are not "prepped" will be quite good at tracking down the sound of generators, the smell of wood smoke from a chimney, and windows that are not dark at night.

Cities will suck; rural areas will suck. Travel will be hell, and so will sitting in place. When one of the neighbors comes knocking asking to borrow a can of Beef-A- Roni, what will you do? When 15 of the neighbors show up, what will you do?

They don't want your brains, just your beans. And they're willing to do whatever they need to do, to get it.

It's always borderline using fiction for planning, but the old Twilight Zone with the fallout shelter is instructive. If the bombs had fallen, all would have died, as the shelter was ruined by the have-nots.

Years ago, I came up with the Committee for Fair Distribution, that will become operational in the Aftermath. It consists of me. I'll take what I want; I think that's fair.



Lots of people will do the same. Hell, people can't even be civil at the mall at Christmas, for Christ's sake (irony intended).

 

[Executive]

Excellent points. Especially the "where are you going to go?" question. Many/most here on NES have families. Relocating a family of four to parts unknown is just a bad idea. Same goes for the infamous "bug out bag". I do have a bag, but its a "get home bag". My priority is to get home to my family and insure their immediate safety. The extent of our prepping is some extra food, water, generator and fuel, and a plan based on a rallying point. My sons know that in any bad situation, their priority is to get home safely, or get in touch. We will deal with things together after that.


Chris

 

[P-14]

Bugging out: Where are you going to go on only one tank of gas? If you have a retreat, it had better be within range of the vehicle you are driving plus any fuel you are carrying in cans. Otherwise, bug in, make allies of the neighbors, pool resources, and repel all boarders.

I am planning for the 2-4 week SHTF and not the Book of Eli - EOTW scenario. Think economic collapse in Argentina.

 

[Projectile]

Bugging out: Where are you going to go on only one tank of gas? If you have a retreat, it had better be within range of the vehicle you are driving plus any fuel you are carrying in cans. Otherwise, bug in, make allies of the neighbors, pool resources, and repel all boarders.

I am planning for the 2-4 week SHTF and not the Book of Eli - EOTW scenario. Think economic collapse in Argentina.

My base case scenario is the same. I don't agree with everything FerFal writes, but I think his approach combined with others is the right way to go.

 

[Rider]

My base case scenario is the same. I don't agree with everything FerFal writes, but I think his approach combined with others is the right way to go.

Sure, as the degrees of intensity increase, so does your discomfort. The question isn't just "will you do whatever it takes to survive?" but also "Do you want to live when everything you care about is gone?"

It's a completely different picture if you are a sngle person facing the world than if you have a family and have to deal with the effects of your actions on them.

 

[Silverguns6]

The big problem that I see with the theoretical SHTF stuff is that most of the "fiction" predicates the end of society on a massive, nearly instant, die-off.

This is not the likely scenario.

The real problem is that people, as a whole are too complacent. When the MWRA water pipe had the little oopsie a couple of years back, the fact that there might be a boil order for Boston was a big, big deal.

And there was no real problem, only inconvenience.

If there is a real, severe interruption of services, the people that are not "prepped" will be quite good at tracking down the sound of generators, the smell of wood smoke from a chimney, and windows that are not dark at night.

Cities will suck; rural areas will suck. Travel will be hell, and so will sitting in place. When one of the neighbors comes knocking asking to borrow a can of Beef-A- Roni, what will you do? When 15 of the neighbors show up, what will you do?

They don't want your brains, just your beans. And they're willing to do whatever they need to do, to get it.

It's always borderline using fiction for planning, but the old Twilight Zone with the fallout shelter is instructive. If the bombs had fallen, all would have died, as the shelter was ruined by the have-nots.

Years ago, I came up with the Committee for Fair Distribution, that will become operational in the Aftermath. It consists of me. I'll take what I want; I think that's fair.



Lots of people will do the same. Hell, people can't even be civil at the mall at Christmas, for Christ's sake (irony intended).

truth be told, humans will panic and basic instinct will be to look for food. The biggest difference between a prepper and a "lost soul" is that they are not mentally ready to fight people like me. If they are trying to break down my door because they smell Easy Mac, they are thinking about getting that food; not is anyone in there. Yes, I will be in there, and if they come in alive, they will not make it out alive. If someone gains entry into my "stronghold" and then manages to see what I have and then bolt, I am not taking chances of them regrouping and telling others that they found food and warm shelter.
but, on a more civil note, I have defensive deterance set up. Boards with nails and screws will be placed X feet away from all the windows and doors.

When the SHTF such as a civil chaos like we saw in Argentina and Greece and even Egypt happens, it will be a long situation; not a 24hour riot. IMO, look at the type of fighting we see in Syria right now. I believe that situations such as the following will be ones we will see within the next 3-7 years:
-Civil chaos due to economic collapse which will result in a martial law/military state followed by battles, riots, cities burning, death and destruction.
or
-A 2nd revolutionary war due to the Tyrannical US gov't.

When it comes down to the biscuts and gravy (pun intended) I will take what I need. The minute word gets out and the MSM mentions any state of emergency or economic collapse, I am putting the pedal to the metal and getting what I need by anymeans neccissary.
-Dave

 

[BeastlyAdams]

If there is a real, severe interruption of services, the people that are not "prepped" will be quite good at tracking down the sound of generators, the smell of wood smoke from a chimney, and windows that are not dark at night.

This is exactly why I never saw stock in generators. Being the only lit house making noise in a pitch black neighborhood that's dead quiet in the middle of the night will draw everyone...from the curious to the desperate to the ill intent.

 

[TonyDedo]

This is exactly why I never saw stock in generators. Being the only lit house making noise in a pitch black neighborhood that's dead quiet in the middle of the night will draw everyone...from the curious to the desperate to the ill intent.

Don't prep because there's a risk the neighbors might come and take it. Very logical.

That's like "don't carry a gun because the bad guy might take it and use it against you."

 

[P-14]

This is exactly why I never saw stock in generators. Being the only lit house making noise in a pitch black neighborhood that's dead quiet in the middle of the night will draw everyone...from the curious to the desperate to the ill intent.

Blackout drapes easily solve this issue. Gennys allow you some of the modern conveniences of the 21st century while your neighbors are in the dark ages. Besides, I share the genny with the neighbors (via their extension cords) and then they have a vested interest in protecting it, too.

 

[Cowgirlup]

This is exactly why I never saw stock in generators. Being the only lit house making noise in a pitch black neighborhood that's dead quiet in the middle of the night will draw everyone...from the curious to the desperate to the ill intent.

The do make mufflers for generators. Or a friend of our made his own. Not totally silent but maybe wouldn't draw as much attention.
And you don't have to run it 24/7. Just long enough to get some things done.

 

[Rider]

The do make mufflers for generators. Or a friend of our made his own. Not totally silent but maybe wouldn't draw as much attention.
And you don't have to run it 24/7. Just long enough to get some things done.

And some of the inverter types are so quiet that you can't hear them 50 feet away. Daisy chain a couple and you have enough power to cycle and run almost anything in your house.

 

[Projectile]

My Honda EU2000i is quiet as a mouse.

 

[OCB]

I hear this over and over again, and I can't figure it out. Where do you think you're going to go??? Is there some magical wilderness cornucopia that's better supplied and will better protect you from the population and the elements?

Even the most isolated land in New England is going to be easily accessible by the 10m people in the region. And New England isn't known for having particularly habitable or productive land. You have to really travel to find a place worth bugging out to, at a time when travel is going to be difficult and dangerous, if not downright impossible. And even if you found such land, it's not going to be habitable or productive overnight - it takes time and resources, which you're not going to have.

I think the point being, if you're planning to bug out, long term, then the first step is finding and preparing a place to bug out to.

My post wasn't implying that I plan on striking off on foot with the intent of living off the land. My plan is to head to NC where my parents have a good bit of land, established means for producing food, and neighbors they know and trust. Up here, I have none of that. You're absolutely right that it will likely be dangerous or impossible to make the trip after X amount of time if something goes bad. The trick will be knowing when to go, and I have no idea how I'm going to know when that time will be. I can be as well prepared as possible in my own house, but if some group out of the thousands of people that live within walking distance from me is intent on getting what I have, or at a minimum removing me from the equation, all they have to do is burn my house down. I would hope that if the need arose I could keep a low profile and not advertise my presence or the fact that I have stuff that others may want. Best case, that situation lasts as long as people don't start searching every house for supplies. I don't know any of my neighbors other than the people that live below me, and while they're nice people, I don't trust them to be anything more than two more mouths to feed without bringing any additional benefit to my situation. That's why I don't think bugging-in long term is a viable solution for me and my family.

 

[fubar]

What are we planning for ? Everyone running at once for the hills ? Or things sucking a bit slower while the people wait for FEMA to sort out the mess ?

Will there be .gov . mil road blocks and travel restrictions , or will they just go home like the NOPD did in Katrina ?

Is it possible to time ones bug out to just roll down the road when no one else has gas , but before they start eating each other ?

I have a bug out cabin. In the woods. On a river . With a well , full of critters , blueberries and hardwood for fuel. With a few neighbors who are friendly and known to me. Arriving there tired and sore and only carrying a 72 hour pack would suck.

Showing up with my 4wd packed to the gills with stuff from home would be a major upgrade.
If the World gives me another Summer and Fall to get my act together ill be better off.

It takes 3/4ths of a gas tank to get there in my SUV. I don't store fuel because I am stupid. I need to correct that.

The on site stores of stuff are very marginal. I am correcting that on an on going basis.

I am seriously contemplating the installation a a few fixed fighting positions for security , just for fun of course.

 

[JGstunt]

It takes 3/4ths of a gas tank to get there in my SUV. I don't store fuel because I am stupid. I need to correct that.

Like others have mentioned timing plays the biggest part. I lived in Texas at the time and it took people 30 hours to drive from NO to Houston when Katrina hit and that was leaving with plenty of notice 3 days prior to storm. Just something to keep in mind when comes to fuel and bugging out.

 

[rudiewhitebwoy]

Some interesting toughts in this thread. I have a place in NH that is about 100 miles from where I live here in MA. With two kids and a wife, the ability to navigate to our "bug out" location will be highly dependent on the type of SHTF scenario that unfolds. My base case scenario, that is the scenario I view as having the highest probability of occuring relative to other SHTF events, would be some sort of economic collapse/upheaval that unfolds quickly, but gives people a chance to mobilize safely. The classical survivalists claim that the cities will be the worst place to be, while modern surivival writers, (FerFal, for example) argue that rural areas will be death traps. The argument against a rural bugout location in this regard is based off of what happened in Argentina, where rapes and murders were more prevalent in the rural farming areas due to lack of police, etc. Roving gangs took over these areas fairly easily. In my case, IF safe travel is possible north, then we bug out, as I have family literally next door, along with local knowledge having grown up there.

The difficulty lies in trying to allocate resources to each location given various constraints. I know fully well that IF safe travel is not possible staying put is the ONLY option, so I can't put 100% of my resources into our NH place. I have a decision tree framework that I use to help plan for a variety of scenarios, but even then you can't plan for everything.

You're way ahead of me, but I want to be 200 miles up in NH. When the SHTF I don't think travel will be unsafe initially. After a few weeks I'm sure there will be road blocks and organized marauders. Every time that I would go North, pre-SHTF, I'd take a different route. Make detailed notes of landmarks and the pro's and con's of each route. Make sure everyone in your group has a copy of your detailed bug out map ( aka manual GPS ), with all the notations, rally points & friendlies along the way. Maybe have several cashes of supplies strategically place along some of your potential routes. Get an old map so you can add old rail beds to your bug out map.

 

[Tracer1951]

Bug in or out....that is a question we all will have to think about and may eventually face. Level of prep, dry run through, stock pile, solo effort or band of brothers no one answer. I don't know what the answers is, but here is some of the principles I think about for my prepping!

By failing to prepare you are preparing to fail."

— Benjamin Fanklin


The tactical result of an engagement forms the base for new strategic decisions because victory or defeat in a battle changes the situation to such a degree that no human acumen is able to see beyond the first battle. In this sense one should understand Napoleon's saying: "I have never had a plan of operations."
Therefore no plan of operations extends with any certainty beyond the first contact with the main hostile force. Field Marshall Helmuth Carl Bernard Graf von Moltke Chief of Staff of the Prussian General Staff from 1857 to 1871


Murphy’s Laws of Combat

Planning
1.The important things are simple.

2.The simple things are very hard.

3.No plan survives the first contact intact.

4.Prefect plans aren't.


Tactics
1.Don't look conspicuous, it draws fire.

2.Never draw fire, it makes everyone around you nervous.

3.Try to look unimportant, they may be low on ammo.

4.If the enemy is within range, so are you.

5.Anything you can do can get you shot, including doing nothing.

6.If the enemy is in range, "SO ARE YOU!!!"

7.If you can't see the enemy, he still may be able to see you.


Techniques
1.If it's stupid but works, it's not stupid.

2.When in doubt, empty the magazine.

3.Never share a foxhole with anyone braver than you.

4.If your attack is going really well, it's an ambush.

5.The enemy diversion you are ignoring is the main attack.

6.The easy way is always mined.

7.When you have secured an area, don't forget to tell the enemy.

8.Teamwork is essential. It gives the enemy other' to shoot at.

9.Make it too tough for the enemy to get in, and you can't get out.

10.The only terrain that is truly controlled is the terrain upon which you're standing.

11.The easy way generally gets you killed.

12.If you take more than your fair share of objectives, you will have more than your fair share objectives to take.

13.You can win without fighting, but it's a lot tougher to do. And the enemy may not cooperate.


Casualties
1.Ammo is cheap; your life isn't.

2.It's easier to expend material in combat than to fill out the forms for Graves Registration.


Weapons
1.Always keep in mind that your weapon was made by the lowest bidder.

2.The law of the bayonet says the man with the bullet wins.

3.Tracers work both ways.

4.The best tank killer is another tank. Therefore tanks are always fighting each other... and have no time to help the infantry.

5.Armored vehicles are bullet magnets, a moving foxhole that attracts attention.

6.All five second grenades are three seconds.

7.The bursting radius of a grenade is always one foot greater than your jumping range.

8.If you can't remember, the claymore is pointed towards YOU.

9.Recoilless rifles, aren't.


Intelligence
1.The enemy side always looks stronger, especially when they are firing at you, to both sides.

2.The othersides weapons always seem to look better than you own.

34.The noisiest weapons always appear to the most powerful.

 

[MisterHappy]

You forgot, "Get there firstest with the mostest, and don't let them know you're coming," and "Nuke the site from orbit, it's the only way to be sure."