My brother in law and I were looking into buying a indexing press for handgun/rifle rounds (he reloads shotguns) and were pricing the stuff out. Admittedly I don't know much about reloading but he does. He looked at everything, made a list and we priced it. Circa $800 for the press and a few die kits. Assuming zero cost for brass, we looked at common prices for ball rounds, assumed some fractional $ value for powder per round, and ran the math. It saved ~.01 per round, without rolling in much of the cost of the press. I think based on our volume, payback on the press would have been in ~15 yrs. Forget about the time we would have spent in loading, that was not even considered. I have a barn on my property and it would have been the perfect place for it. It just made no sense for the volume when compared to a run to Walmart in NH.
He still reloads shotgun shells but that is because he has bags of lead he paid less than $10 for (going for more than $50 now). He will not be buying more lead when he runs out. That is one way reloading makes sense, if you pre-buy, but you can do that with loaded ammo too. Now, reloading definitely makes sense if you are a serious target shooter and/or want to play with ballistics, then reloading makes a whole lot of sense. Because that cost of time and press are then applied to the value of playing with loads and other benefits of reloading.
The numbers depend on the quantity you shoot. Cost recovery is fast if you're expending over 1000 rounds a year in any one given caliber. It's not so good if you're one of the guys that only gets to sneak out to the range once in a blue moon.
IIRC awhile ago NES member TonyDedo did a good breakdown on this somewhere else on the forum; and he (correctly) calculated that even if you threw in a low end labor rate for you time, you'd still end up ahead. He even threw in things like the cost of the press, etc, etc. (IIRC he used a Dillon 650 in his example, which is even relatively overkill to get started with)
Currently I reload .45 ACP at a cost of $9.25 for 50 rounds, using 230 gr CMJ bullets. This stuff is as good, or better than factory. What I was using was CCI Blazer Brass, which is excellent ammo for the money- but
even at rock bottom, that stuff still costs about $15 a box unless you have an "IN" with a distributor/FFL buddy that can get it for less...
FWIW, the more expensive calibers to reload (eg, .44 mag on up) you start to save a lot of money, real fast. A reloading setup for .500 S+W, for example, will easily pay for itself inside of a year, because commercial ammo is so expensive otherwise.
IMO the only way reloading doesn't pan out very well is in a few limited circumstances, like not having ANY spare time (understandable) or not having the willingness to learn how to do it. For the longest time I was in this latter category, but it turned out to be a lot easier than I thought.
It also might not be viable if you don't shoot a lot. There are some guys I know that -might- get to sneak out to the range 1-3 times a year, and they're well under a case a year. If you're like me though and find you blow through 1-2+ cases a year of .45 or something like that, then it starts looking a LOT more attractive.
Edit: One other way to look at it, (as most reloaders do) if you spend, say, $900 on components instead of
$900 on commercial ammo, you'll still get more reloaded ammo for the same amount of money. In the example
above, $900 gets me 3 cases of blazer brass .45. If I reload with $900 worth of components, I get 4.8 cases of
ammo instead. That's almost 2 extra cases of ammo.
-Mike