The most likely end times scenario

[matt]

OK, I get a kick out of reading some of the threads in this forum. Some make me think. Some make me laugh a little. But when I read about the thought going in to preparedness for disaster (more on other forums than here) I have to wonder how much energy gets put into preparing for the collapse of society vs preparing for the most likely outcome: You work a long hard life, get to the age of 65-75 and retire quietly to Main St, America.

Do you invest (money and time) in your 401k/IRA and your bug out bag in proportion to their likelihood of being used?

I don't mean to suggest that being prepared is unreasonable or a waste of time or only for the tin hat crowd. I'm just wondering how many people serious about preparing for the worst are preparing for the most likely outcomes?

Do you agree with me that retirement is far more likely than societal collapse?

 

[ranger4-7]

I agree wholeheartedly. I see this every day in my work (benefits outsourcing). People simply fail to understand that without planning, retirement will suck. Folks who don't plan won't have to worry about a "one gun per month" limit, as they'll be unlikey to afford the basics, let alone the fun stuff.
I wouldn't even think of hitting Zero Hour Arms (the black hole of my disposable income) before knowing I'd maxed my 401(k) contributions, funded the IRA's, and contributed to 529 plans for the three kids.

 

[Adam_MA]

It's all about balance. Yes, I prepare for all types of disasters. I contribute to my retirement fund, have a couple of CD's and an IRA, even stocks, as well as regular monthly savings. My budget includes money for preps, and still allows me to pay all of my bills.

The largest portion of money I use in my preps goes to food. But the way I look at it, is even if nothing bad happens at all, I still have something I can use!

 

[dixidawg]

OK, I get a kick out of reading some of the threads in this forum. Some make me think. Some make me laugh a little. But when I read about the thought going in to preparedness for disaster (more on other forums than here) I have to wonder how much energy gets put into preparing for the collapse of society vs preparing for the most likely outcome: You work a long hard life, get to the age of 65-75 and retire quietly to Main St, America.

Do you invest (money and time) in your 401k/IRA and your bug out bag in proportion to their likelihood of being used?

I don't mean to suggest that being prepared is unreasonable or a waste of time or only for the tin hat crowd. I'm just wondering how many people serious about preparing for the worst are preparing for the most likely outcomes?

Do you agree with me that retirement is far more likely than societal collapse?

Fantastic point!!!!

It is all about probabilities.


On the ohter hand, if I had bought a bunch of AK's back before the ban instead of putting that $ into the 401k, I think I might have actually been further ahead today. Of course the same could be said if I had bought Microsoft, or Cisco or Google back in the day

 

[Rob Boudrie]

An interesting study proportional absurdity is listening to someone explain why they would never go anywhere without a gun and a spare mag - while smoking a cigarette. It doesn't fit with their "tactical mindset" when one points out that that statistically speaking giving up smoking has a greater probability of prolonging their life than carrying a weapon.

 

[matt]

An interesting study proportional absurdity is listening to someone explain why they would never go anywhere with a gun and a spare mag - while smoking a cigarette. It doesn't fit with their "tactical mindset" when one points out that that statistically speaking giving up smoking has a greater probability of prolonging their life than carrying a weapon.

and leaves more money for ammo!!

 

[M1911]

Do you invest (money and time) in your 401k/IRA and your bug out bag in proportion to their likelihood of being used?

I just received my balances in the mail today, as a matter of fact. It's been a bit over a year since I reviewed my portfolio with my financial adviser. Time to do it again.

Mrs. M1911 and I have been saving in 401k/IRA since we were eligible (a disturbingly long time ago). The best way for me to save is for the money to be gone and out of my grubby little fingers before I can spend it.

At the moment, we seem to be on track for a comfortable retirement, knock on wood. Not as comfortable as I'd like, of course -- alas, waterfront property on Martha's Vineyard will likely be beyond our budget.

 

[M1911]

An interesting study proportional absurdity is listening to someone explain why they would never go anywhere without a gun and a spare mag - while smoking a cigarette. It doesn't fit with their "tactical mindset" when one points out that that statistically speaking giving up smoking has a greater probability of prolonging their life than carrying a weapon.

Same with not wearing a seat belt.

 

[drgrant]

IMO I think most of the time there is a law of diminishing returns with this
stuff.

Preparing for a week long disaster, for instance, is probably very likely to
pay good dividends at some time in the future. The chances that sort
of a "blowout" are a lot more likely than full blown TEOTWAKI, etc. And
if the "event" is a lot shorter than that you still are covered.

Of course, someone's ability to prepare is going to differ... and a lot of times
some parts of "being prepared" don't cost a lot once you have the ground
work in place. And since a lot of items last a long time, the up front
cost is static and "maintenance" costs very little for what you get in
return.

Some parts of the survival game are not that expensive, eg, bug out bags,
etc.... other parts, like buying a year worth of nonperishable food for 4
people, are probably pretty expensive. Of course, there is more than
one way to deal with that problem, too. If one can hunt, grow food, and
has a well on their property that works, that part gets a lot cheaper.

FWIW, I think a lot of people probably have more money tied up in
retirement than they do in survival gear. The other thing is some
investments (like a second house/cottage/property out in the boonies)
can be used for recreation as well as survival needs, if you play your cards
right. Even if the 2nd property is NOT in the boonies, it can still
work out. Most disasters, statistically speaking, are localized.

Things only start to get nutty and really expensive when you are trying to
protect against -EVERY- eventuality... and even then, I'm sure those guys
invest to a point, and then crank back and maintain what they have.


-Mike

 

[drgrant]

An interesting study proportional absurdity is listening to someone explain why they would never go anywhere without a gun and a spare mag - while smoking a cigarette. It doesn't fit with their "tactical mindset" when one points out that that statistically speaking giving up smoking has a greater probability of prolonging their life than carrying a weapon.

I think the reason people carry a gun is probably because of what I refer to
as the curse of the individual... eg, the actual or perceived notional of feeling
even slightly empowered by being able to better defend oneself. (or their
family, for that matter)

Additionally, some might argue that there is a difference between allowing
someone else to divert one's existence (eg, death via being
beat/stabbed/shot) as opposed to self-inflicted punishment like smoking or
eating unhealthy food. One could argue that at least in the case of
someone dying from the latter, that they at least didn't give the criminal the
satisfaction of turning them into a victim. If you poison yourself with
cigs, booze, or trans fats, at least you still chose your own fate.

I agree that, if we're going soley by the numbers, the guy who carries the 5
extra mags who smokes 2 packs a day, and never wears a seatbelt or a
motorcycle helmet is being an idiot, but I guess my point is that the issue
sometimes extends far beyond just numbers, and has a distinctly human
element to it as well.

-Mike

 

[Duxprep]

Matt said - Do you invest (money and time) in your 401k/IRA and your bug out bag in proportion to their likelihood of being used

Excellent question Matt - I do both. My 401K is maxed and my preps are to a point to where I need them to be and now it's just a matter of rotation.

I view my preps as insurance, like life or homeowners. What is good is saving for retirement if you can't weather the storm? At least you can eat this insurance. I have a model where 60% is long term "don't touch" storage and the rest is a revolving pantry. Having a well stocked pantry is what our ancestors did , and I can tell you it's a great way to live. It's also much more economical as you tend to buy in bulk (or on sale)

Another reason I prep is that by my being prepared I become less of a burden to society, and hopefully whatever resources are availble at that time go to the Power, water, trucker or healthcare worker who was not able to prep thereby improving my and everyone elses chances of survival.

I'd also add the having the ability to defend myself and my family is a key component of being prepared. Many, likely most, won't be prepared and would likely look to take advantage of those who are.

 

[MegaPlinker]

Do you agree with me that retirement is far more likely than societal collapse?

Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if the two came at the same time. From what I have heard social security is projected to dry up right about when I'm due to retire.

 

[MassMark]

Excellent question Matt - I do both. My 401K is maxed and my preps are to a point to where I need them to be and now it's just a matter of rotation.

I view my preps as insurance, like life or homeowners. What is good is saving for retirement if you can't weather the storm? At least you can eat this insurance. I have a model where 60% is long term "don't touch" storage and the rest is a revolving pantry. Having a well stocked pantry is what our ancestors did , and I can tell you it's a great way to live. It's also much more economical as you tend to buy in bulk (or on sale)

Another reason I prep is that by my being prepared I become less of a burden to society, and hopefully whatever resources are availble at that time go to the Power, water, trucker or healthcare worker who was not able to prep thereby improving my and everyone elses chances of survival.

I'd also add the having the ability to defend myself and my family is a key component of being prepared. Many, likely most, won't be prepared and would likely look to take advantage of those who are.

Some good points which in many ways mirror my own. I suppose there are extremes to both sides of the coin - I have seen many. On another forum I belong to, some are so obsessed with prepping for SHTF, that I wonder what they do for a living....Still others live with this ostrich in the sand mentality that leaves me scratching my head. All the 401k's and IRA's on the planet won't help you when you're hungry, nor will a bunker full of goodies when 67 comes and the parachute is forced on you...

It's all about balance for me. I have a wife in medical school and a child with hobbies. I have bills to pay, mouths to feed and hobbies of my own - all while planning to retire in a future that's growing ever-closer, (I'm 41). With a Roth, Vanguard and 401k running, I sleeep fairly well at night. I buy what I can - when I can and have built up enough stores to feel pretty comfortable for a good stretch. Looking out my window, I see plenty of food as well, so if disaster strikes, I'm fairly well positioned to defend and feed my family. I also pay close attention to what's happening out there - from global warming, to hurricanes, to earthquakes, to political climate, to terrorism. I live with the belief that anything is possible and it's better to be with a plan just in case. I also believe there's a fin line between being paranoid and prepared. I like to think I follow the prepared way of life...

As much as I scratch my head at the obsessed survivalist, I also am bewildered at those who aren't prepared at all - or even a little. I am especially amused by those who scoff at those of us who prep - as it will likely be you banging on the door if and when shit goes down....Don't worry, you can use your 401k to get a fire going....