Gold and silver prices are down

richc said:
I wonder if we'll see "preban" gold and silver at some point. I could see a Biden administration banning gold "for the greater good".

:-(
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I think that's very possible.

If gold keeps going up, you'll have everyone trading in their dollars for gold - not from the US vault this time, just from the Comex and from retail outlets. They could ban gold sales for that reason, and ban redemption of futures for physical. They'll search you at the airport to make sure you're not buying gold overseas, and they'll offer a buy back program after which gold is banned. It wouldn't work, the dollar collapse would continue anyway, but the US government is known for failed policies so they might try it anyway.
 
Varmint said:
If gold keeps going up, you'll have everyone trading in their dollars for gold - not from the US vault this time, just from the Comex and from retail outlets. They could ban gold sales for that reason, and ban redemption of futures for physical.
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-- Edited for clarity --

Personally, I doubt anything like this (a ban/confiscation) will happen, in part because there's enough paranoia (after they tried it once!) for either ban or confiscation to be "go time" for some folk, and also because there's simply not enough gold in circulation for a move from dollars to physical gold to make a difference to the valuation of the dollar -- consumers and 1%ers can move all the money they want into gold, it's a drop in the bucket.

Varmint said:
They'll search you at the airport to make sure you're not buying gold overseas, and they'll offer a buy back program after which gold is banned. It wouldn't work, the dollar collapse would continue anyway, but the US government is known for failed policies so they might try it anyway.
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For an example of how this would work (and fail) in practice, look at India.
 
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Kevin_NH said:
Personally, I doubt anything like this will happen, in part because there's enough paranoia around this for that to be "go time" for some folk, and also because there's just not enough gold in circulation for a move from dollars to physical gold to make a difference to the valuation of the dollar.
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The US wouldn't need to match M1 money supply 1 to 1 with gold, it would just need enough gold in reserves so that people didn't lose complete faith in a gold-backed dollar.

But it's kind of a moot point cause the world would never move to gold backing unless forced to, and they would only be forced to do that by a global currency collapse.

This imo is why gold has gone up so fast, cause people and central banks aren't worried about inflation, or covid, they're worried about a currency collapse.
 
Varmint said:
If gold keeps going up, you'll have everyone trading in their dollars for gold - not from the US vault this time, just from the Comex and from retail outlets.
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Pssst.... (quiet mode on) That's what is happening right now.

Varmint said:
The US wouldn't need to match M1 money supply 1 to 1 with gold, it would just need enough gold in reserves so that people didn't lose complete faith in a gold-backed dollar.
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Don't forget silver. The US has been minting $1.00 .999 silver coins since 1986. The purchase price has risen but the denomination remains the same. The mint is required to purchase US silver for the coinage.

Varmint said:
This imo is why gold has gone up so fast, cause people and central banks aren't worried about inflation, or covid, they're worried about a currency collapse.
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I dunno.... I look at it more of saving a value of my dollar today than a currency collapse. I continually refer to value of a dollar today in terms of silver as compared to the value of the dollar in years past. My prime example is the 1963 Chevy Impala convertible with a 327 V8, 4 speed, air conditioning, deluxe interior and best tire/wheel combination with a sticker price of $3,600. You could go to the bank and get 3600 SILVER dollars (90%) and buy that car. That's around $108,000 today calling a silver dollar at $30.00. Silver stores better than a car and has no maintenance.

The SHTF scenarios don't mean anything to me, I am storing my money in a property that holds value in comparison to inflation and any other influences. If the price of silver drops like a stone in USD, I can still buy stuff with my dollars until it comes back. Hell, I held it when the 1980's hit $40.00 silver. If it drops to 16 as it recently has, I will plow dollars into it.

Varmint said
how the US required Americans to sell their gold back to the government at like $15/oz, and the next year raised the price of gold to $35. Suckers.
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Yea, my grand father lived through that and said chuck foo yardly and kept his gold. He bought all the way through the turn in. It was black market but you could buy US gold coin at $15-20$ an ounce. FDR screwed the people and many made serious money because of it. You wonder why I hold metals?
 
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So what's the deal with buying gold and silver with ebay? It won't let me checkout. I've tried unlinking my paypal, changing quantities -- nothing works and they won't tell you how to fix it. Of course their CS is nonexistent. Do I need to get some sort of preauthorization? I swear I bought gold and silver from them earlier this year.

This is the error: Sorry, we can't complete your checkout at this time. Please try changing your item quantity or check your account status.
 
new guy said:
So what's the deal with buying gold and silver with ebay? It won't let me checkout. I've tried unlinking my paypal, changing quantities -- nothing works and they won't tell you how to fix it. Of course their CS is nonexistent. Do I need to get some sort of preauthorization? I swear I bought gold and silver from them earlier this year.

This is the error: Sorry, we can't complete your checkout at this time. Please try changing your item quantity or check your account status.
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Not sure, mine works normally. Did you try App and desktop versions of Ebay?
 
Varmint said:
Not sure, mine works normally. Did you try App and desktop versions of Ebay?
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Yes. Got on the phone with CS and everything they couldn’t figure it out after looping in a couple of different departments so we all gave up. Just can’t complete the transaction.
 
new guy said:
Yes. Got on the phone with CS and everything they couldn’t figure it out after looping in a couple of different departments so we all gave up. Just can’t complete the transaction.
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You try multiple vendors? That's odd. Some vendors have asked for verification, I think it's vendor dependent, but not sure.
 
Yeah, at least three different vendors, and with amounts on either side of $1k. tried disconnecting my paypal account. Nothing.

I bought a decent qty of silver on eBay in August but had seen this same error before that. I wonder if I’m limited to a certain number of purchases over some period of time.
 
Maybe this chart was presented here before by @Varmint but the Barron Gold Mining Chart is worth looking at and also I’ll link this podcast with Rick Rule on Jay Taylor’s show released today. Start at 26:50 if you don’t want to cover the whole show. It’s a pretty compelling listen for PM investors.
podcasts.apple.com

The Gold Bull Market? Are We Nearing the End?

Podcast Episode · Turning Hard Times into Good Times · 10/13/2020 · 58m
podcasts.apple.com podcasts.apple.com

113B55A2-A882-4F2A-A203-22B98225EB78.png
 
smokey-seven said:
I dunno.... I look at it more of saving a value of my dollar today than a currency collapse. I continually refer to value of a dollar today in terms of silver as compared to the value of the dollar in years past. My prime example is the 1963 Chevy Impala convertible with a 327 V8, 4 speed, air conditioning, deluxe interior and best tire/wheel combination with a sticker price of $3,600. You could go to the bank and get 3600 SILVER dollars (90%) and buy that car. That's around $108,000 today calling a silver dollar at $30.00. Silver stores better than a car and has no maintenance.
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True, but lets look at some numbers.

Consider 1963 - 2020 to be 57 years.

See what your effective ROI is assuming your described silver price jump:

i = exp(ln(108,000/3600)/57)-1
i = .061486 = 6.1486% per year
3600*(1.06148^57)=$107,998 (close enough to 108K for NES work)

The S&P 500 has returned 10.2% on average since 1963 (S&P 500 Returns since 1963), so lets see what a market investment would have returned:

3600*(1.102)^57 = $913,383.98 or almost 8.5 times as great a return

So, historically a market index fund (or market equivalent basked of index funds did not exist back in 1963) had a higher rater of return, showing that such instrumentalities have in the past been a better store of wealth than silver over the long term. Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future behavior.

Furthermore, the gain on securities held long term is taxed at a favorable capital gains rate, whereas PMs are taxed at the "collectible" rate rather which far less favorable.

Of course securities do not offer the total privacy of PMs; are visible to debt collectors; nursing homes (Including your parents nursing home if you live in PA but I digress); must be included in your Vaughn declaration if one of your offspring gets divorced (yes, divorce courts can compel disclosure of parental assets and estate plans in MA); can put you over the $1M MA estate tax threshold; and are less useful for bribing invading troops if things go Red Dawn; go time arrives; the balloon goes up or whatever the end of times preppers like to call it these days. I doubt there will ever be go time - either it came and went and nobody noticed or everyone will be so busy with bread and circuses (facebook and the internet) that they will remain docile.

It is important to not just fall in love with the political statement of a non-fiat asset not under direct government control, but to also understand the investment, like any other, bears risk - even if the risk is simply underperforming non-PM assets.
 
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smokey-seven said:
With the exception that I have stepped in and out of silver multiple times with no tax issue. A few grand here a few grand there, you will never see a 1099.
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True, but try that with "investment quantities" (mid 5 digits and above) and we're in the realm when tax evasion charges are possible. Try going to Iggy & Ziggy's metals with 50K of metal in person to do an all cash deal, then find a way to store that cash that does not produce a paper trail.

It's like any of the tax issues. Nobody worries about tiny stuff in cash transactions - I've never heard of a criminal charge for buying a flat screen TV in NH and putting in your MA house. BUT... Kozlowski (of Tyco fame) was indicted for buying expensive paintings in a no-tax state and moving them to NYC without paying the NY sales tax.
 
Varmint said:
Not sure, mine works normally. Did you try App and desktop versions of Ebay?
Click to expand...

That has happened to me as well. IIRC I changed the quantity and proceeded. Then changed it back and it worked.

But eBay also started using two factor authentication for some purchases. I dunno.

I haven't bought anything in a while. But you're not alone having that problem.
 
Rob Boudrie said:
It's like any of the tax issues. Nobody worries about tiny stuff in cash transactions - I've never heard of a criminal charge for buying a flat screen TV in NH and putting in your MA house. BUT... Kozlowski (of Tyco fame) was indicted for buying expensive paintings in a no-tax state and moving them to NYC without paying the NY sales tax.
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He also went to jail for spending company money and using it for personal transactions... measured in the millions. The $6000 shower curtain? $2 million birthday party for his wife. Over $100 million looted from the company.

Kozlowski was a freaking crook.
 
Rob Boudrie said:
True, but try that with "investment quantities" (mid 5 digits and above) and we're in the realm when tax evasion charges are possible. Try going to Iggy & Ziggy's metals with 50K of metal in person to do an all cash deal, then find a way to store that cash that does not produce a paper trail.

It's like any of the tax issues. Nobody worries about tiny stuff in cash transactions - I've never heard of a criminal charge for buying a flat screen TV in NH and putting in your MA house. BUT... Kozlowski (of Tyco fame) was indicted for buying expensive paintings in a no-tax state and moving them to NYC without paying the NY sales tax.
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cough***silver mining stocks***cough.
 
richc said:
cough***silver mining stock names???***cough
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Easiest way would be:
SIL = the large cap silver miners, but some of these are not really silver miners, they're base metal miners who have some silver, but you're really buying base metal miners
SILJ = this is the ETF to buy, it contains most of the good silver juniors whose resource is primarily silver, or silver and gold. Not a cobalt mine with some silver in it.
But either is fine, I think 2/3rds of SILJ is also in SIL.

Individual favorites
MAG
USAS
AG
AXU
DSVMF
The first 4 are contained in SILJ and in SIL.

I own USAS, AXU and DSVMF. I also own some smaller riskier juniors but not going to post those.

If you buy silver stocks be prepared for a roller coaster ride.

PS I also own a lot of SILJ!
 
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