richc
NES Member
ahem... what about ammo and reloading supplies...
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Gold and silver prices are down
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ahem... what about ammo and reloading supplies...
Varmint
NES Member
Yeah, maybe ammo, lumber and video cards are just way up cause of the huge jump in demand, plus some supply chain issues. I guess we'll see when the lockdowns get lifted.
But there's other things like oil - there's certainly abnormally low oil demand, so why's it going up so much? And when lockdowns do get lifted, you'll have huge inflation in other things - I think this could all turn into - not hyperinflation, but just high inflation - if people start to think it's a good idea to convert their dollars to things which will go up in price. That's all inflation is, people's mentality changing. And it's already happened in bitcoin, stocks, fine art, collectibles etc.
I am in the wholesale lumber industry, 30+ years. The crazy high prices, all time record highs on most items, are being driven by the perfect storm, of low interest rates allowing new house buyers into the market, solid demand for homes out of inner cites, Remodel and repair business as people where stuck at home and nothing to do, supply side disruptions, including but not limited to, COVID keeping workers out of mills, transportations spikes including ocean freights going thru the roof on imports, containers that where moving from China and other SE Asia ports jumping from $2400 per container to $7000 and higher, increases in costs of glues etc in plywood, MDF and particle board manufacturing. And the winter weather this past week has shut down logging in most of the south.
Mills today really don't need many people to run, but several weeks ago I was told by a sales guy for an OSB mill that the plant lost 2 weeks production due to all of the guys trained on the finishing end of the mill testing positive for COVID. All 5 of them.
My company had the best sales year in the 63 years it has been in business last year. The prices are not going to crash down like other cycles. They will come down but not to lows of the past.
Mills today really don't need many people to run, but several weeks ago I was told by a sales guy for an OSB mill that the plant lost 2 weeks production due to all of the guys trained on the finishing end of the mill testing positive for COVID. All 5 of them.
My company had the best sales year in the 63 years it has been in business last year. The prices are not going to crash down like other cycles. They will come down but not to lows of the past.
Thanks for the perspective 07Mustang.
A few days ago I saw two large flatbed tractor trailers filled to the brim with PT lumber.... I thought to myself, if I was going to hijack a truck those would be them! Ha.
Note on silver
au.finance.yahoo.com
BlackRock Silver ETF Adds Warning on Shortages as Investors Bail
(Bloomberg) -- The Reddit crowd may not have taken full control of the silver market in the end, but they did enough to rattle the biggest exchange-traded fund tracking the metal.The ETF at the heart of a recent day-trading storm -- BlackRock Inc.’s $17 billion iShares Silver Trust (ticker SLV)...
richc
NES Member
Varmint
NES Member
Think the November low was $1767, long as we hold that it's good. If that gives I think $1690-1700 will hold. Silver will probably join the selloff if gold doesn't hold $1767.
Miners are still 5-10% above the November lows which is bullish gold.
This is all just a healthy correction after the massive 2020 gains.
Varmint
NES Member
Bears will try to drive gold down tonight - my gut feel is the Nov low won’t hold - but it held up well today.
Varmint
NES Member
Heard a podcast where they had talked to Miles Franklin, SD Bullion and another gold/silver broker, and all three said that they can't buy 1000 oz silver bars right now. The Comex says they can't deliver til Mid March, due to lack of trucks. All said they'd never seen that before, normally you can get $1000 oz bars whenever you want. They also said they offered to pay way over spot and were refused. They all suspect the truck shortage is just an excuse, that the reason is they don't have any 1000 oz bars to sell, but don't want to admit that cause the spot price would skyrocket.
This is huge, cause it means the silver shortage is not due to production limits on retail coins and bars, but includes the entire physical silver market.
It's also proof the spot price is manipulated, for with any other commodity, if supply doesn't exist and demand is huge, the price should go up, look at lumber.
This is huge, cause it means the silver shortage is not due to production limits on retail coins and bars, but includes the entire physical silver market.
It's also proof the spot price is manipulated, for with any other commodity, if supply doesn't exist and demand is huge, the price should go up, look at lumber.
Scottsdale Mint on Gab: '"There is no silver grain in existence in the U.S…'
Scottsdale Mint on Gab: '"There is no silver grain in existence in the U.S. at this moment" - Josh Phair Scottsdale Mint CEO Our CEO is on the tour doing interviews almost every week. I think you'll like this one. This one breaks down: • Where Scottsdale sources their silver • How the spot...
Varmint
NES Member
Gold bears got gold down past the November low to $1760 overnight but it’s back above now at $1770. ![[smile]](/xen/styles/default/xenforo/smilies.vb/001.gif "Smile [smile]")
If bears can’t get it done we could have a big snapback rally, and with silver already at $27 it could be the catalyst to push silver over $30.
If bears can’t get it done we could have a big snapback rally, and with silver already at $27 it could be the catalyst to push silver over $30.One can hope for this outcome. I’m patiently waiting.Gold bears got gold down past the November low to $1760 overnight but it’s back above now at $1770.
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I saw this on a Novo discussion board. (language if you are at work)
If you buy three 2021 Silver Eagles from Apmex and use PayPal, you will get free shipping. But you will pay Spot + $17 on each coin!!!!!
I'm not sure I remember a higher premium. I'm going to have to check my records on the premiums when silver was crazy in 2011.
I'm not sure I remember a higher premium. I'm going to have to check my records on the premiums when silver was crazy in 2011.
Varmint
NES Member
It’s never been even close.
Love Machine
NES Member
Just buy from Kitco: Buy Silver Coins | Buy Silver Coins Online | KITCO
Feral
NES Member
Purchased AE (random dates) for $34 each...in person from a local shop.
I was researching for fun. I don’t buy from the online sources anymore, unless eBay is handing out big eBay bucks on gold.
I only buy from people (or shops) that I know, or know directly through a friend. I’m still buying a lot, but mainly gold right now. I’ve been selling a little silver over the last few months, testing the price points and trying to stay knowledgeable about the real physical demand. Long term investors are paying a ton for their PM’s right now.
I only buy from people (or shops) that I know, or know directly through a friend. I’m still buying a lot, but mainly gold right now. I’ve been selling a little silver over the last few months, testing the price points and trying to stay knowledgeable about the real physical demand. Long term investors are paying a ton for their PM’s right now.
richc
NES Member
Most of the gold and silver I own was bought with very low premiums over spot. I waited for sales or eBay bucks to buy. I bought many of my silver eagles at $1.99 over spot. Gold coins near spot with eBay bucks. I picked my spots, so to speak...
These premiums are nuts! When Apmex's silver premium over spot are almost 2/3's of the value of silver there's a serious underlying problem.
Will be interesting to watch what unfolds...
Varmint
NES Member
Maybe some buyers think silver is going GameStop on us?
It’s possible - if silver can break the paper price like palladium did. I expect they’ll try to drive silver down this week so try to shake off futures traders from taking physical delivery on Feb 25.
It’s amazing that you cannot pay a premium for 1000 oz silver bars - they won’t accept it cause that would raise the spot price. It’s the only commodity where a massive shortage and record demand won’t raise the price.
richc
NES Member
Which portion of the GME pricing are your referring to? The big spike up? Or the big crash down???
Timing is everything... and I'm not a market timer. I'm not that smart.
Varmint
NES Member
Which portion of the GME pricing are your referring to? The big spike up? Or the big crash down???
Timing is everything... and I'm not a market timer. I'm not that smart.
have to ask Wall Street Silver, which now has 31k members. Gonna need more than that to take on JP Morgan.
Rich - I agree with you and I don't think anyone is that smart. That's why I'm a big believer in taking out some profits now and again. I hate seeing fellow PM guys (not you) watch their assets go up and then go down, without ever taking anything off the table. I can understand if someone is a "never sell" guy or if collecting/accumulating PM's is more of a hobby (I know you are more of a hedge against inflation guy).Which portion of the GME pricing are your referring to? The big spike up? Or the big crash down???
Timing is everything... and I'm not a market timer. I'm not that smart.
Silver was under $14/oz not too long ago, so if you bought at that price, taking ~100% profit by selling some silver (whether its 100oz or 1000oz) is not a major mistake. You can use the profits for something else, or just hold the cash and buy more PM's when the prices go down again. They always do!! That's the only guarantee that I can preach, prices will always go up and down.......
Varmint
NES Member
I think this is a great idea but should be done with PSLV, you won’t pay premiums buying and won’t lose premiums selling. PSLV was $4-6 last summer and hit $11 recently. I like physical silver and gold just as insurance that you don’t sell. The problem with physical is when spot hits $12, the physical is still $20. I never saw silver eagles at $14 last year, I’d have bought a ton.
I didn’t sell any long term mining stocks but I used the summer rally to sell ones I didn’t want to keep long term, or wasn’t happy with. When every thing in a sector is up, it’s a great time to sell your dogs or less desirable stocks, cause they’re just up with the rising tide.
richc
NES Member
My average cost is in the $15-$16/ounce range. I've not bought much since then.
I remember I bought a couple 100 ounce silver bars at about $1850 and worried I'd spent too much... DOH!
I'll wait until the big spike up. I don't know if or when that will happen. I think it will happen but don't know for sure. If not my kids will wait. It happens every decade or two.
In the meantime I'll wait it out. As you say, Ash, I do believe that inflation is on the horizon. The government will do all it can to either push inflation back, or simply lie to us about the level of inflation we're experiencing. But I do expect it. It's virtually impossible for a government to keep artificially low interest rates, pump trillions of liquidity into the economy, give free money to citizens and at the same control inflation. Those conditions are not compatible.
Of course if I had purchased ammo instead of silver I'd be WAY better off right now...
Guns and butter...
Rich
I remember I bought a couple 100 ounce silver bars at about $1850 and worried I'd spent too much... DOH!
I'll wait until the big spike up. I don't know if or when that will happen. I think it will happen but don't know for sure. If not my kids will wait. It happens every decade or two.
In the meantime I'll wait it out. As you say, Ash, I do believe that inflation is on the horizon. The government will do all it can to either push inflation back, or simply lie to us about the level of inflation we're experiencing. But I do expect it. It's virtually impossible for a government to keep artificially low interest rates, pump trillions of liquidity into the economy, give free money to citizens and at the same control inflation. Those conditions are not compatible.
Of course if I had purchased ammo instead of silver I'd be WAY better off right now...
Guns and butter...
Rich
Varmint
NES Member
Which portion of the GME pricing are your referring to? The big spike up? Or the big crash down???
Timing is everything... and I'm not a market timer. I'm not that smart.
Honestly we are lucky they didn’t succeed, or silver would have hit $100 on its way back to $12. We got the benefit of greater interest in silver without the return trip of GME. Now we just need to turn the screws on the Comex. Buy PSLV so they keep gobbling up $1000 oz bars and eventually we’ll break the link between paper silver and physical. Then we’ll get our $100 silver.
Agreed but with the caveat that they go up constantly in relation to going down.
I bought silver at $3.50 an ounce and sold shortly after that for $5.50
I bought silver at around $7.00 an ounce and sold shortly after that for $14.50
I bought silver at $8-9.00 an ounce and traded 100z bars for eagles with a 1.50 premium shortly after that and still hold.
I bought 90% us coin silver at $19.00 an ounce and hold that still.
My dollar cost average is around 12-14$ an ounce. I am awaiting a sell point.
Win
NES Member
I just hodl my PM and rare coins. My plan, God willing, is to bequeath them.
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