Gold and silver prices are down

[Trafficdiver]

Anyone seeing that a mine in China may have hit a 1000 tons or more of gold.

Geologists Uncover One of the Largest Gold Reserve Ever, Worth 78 Billion Euros

A hidden deposit, long buried beneath the earth, has just been uncovered, revealing an astonishing amount of gold. Experts are still piecing together the full scale of this discovery, but early estimates suggest its value is beyond expectation. The implications for the industry are only...

dailygalaxy.com

I would bet this is a cover story so China can explain where the extra gold they have came from. There are estimates that China has 20,000 more tons of gold than they are admitting to.

 

[richc]

I just inspected a 1 oz gold Krugerrand and I am sad to say that the $2900 version is no different from the $1800 version produced 2 years ago.

It is different, however. Its buying power is different...

 

[richc]

In January of 1980 gold hit a high of $850 or so. On an inflation adjusted basis that would be about $3250 today.

Will be interesting to see if we clear that level.

 

[Varmint]

Anyone seeing that a mine in China may have hit a 1000 tons or more of gold.

Geologists Uncover One of the Largest Gold Reserve Ever, Worth 78 Billion Euros

A hidden deposit, long buried beneath the earth, has just been uncovered, revealing an astonishing amount of gold. Experts are still piecing together the full scale of this discovery, but early estimates suggest its value is beyond expectation. The implications for the industry are only...

dailygalaxy.com

I saw that article but it was pure hype. 2000-3000m down is really deep, the ideal gold mine has the deposit at surface. So it may not be very economical.

 

[Varmint]

In January of 1980 gold hit a high of $850 or so. On an inflation adjusted basis that would be about $3250 today.

Will be interesting to see if we clear that level.

Is that real inflation or funny government inflation? I’d guess the latter.

 

[KBCraig]

In January of 1980 gold hit a high of $850 or so. On an inflation adjusted basis that would be about $3250 today.

Will be interesting to see if we clear that level.

I was a high school junior, and we had ordered our senior class rings in October 1979. The price of gold put a serious crunch and delay in delivery.

 

[Varmint]

Gold is $2913. $3000 next?

Now $2925.

 

[DJBrad]

Gold is $2913. $3000 next?

Now $2925.

Seems to be the indomitable move. The delivery delays from bullion banks should continue for sometime as gold flows into NY due to tariffs. Among many other events too.

 

[richc]

Seems to be the indomitable move. The delivery delays from bullion banks should continue for sometime as gold flows into NY due to tariffs. Among many other events too.

$3000 is symbolic. I expect some ups and downs before it completely and firmly crosses $3000.

I think it did the same at $2000.

Kinda like a religious war... back and forth.

 

[Freddy Q]

In January of 1980 gold hit a high of $850 or so. On an inflation adjusted basis that would be about $3250 today.

Will be interesting to see if we clear that level.

How do you get the inflation-adjusted numbers?

When I graduated college in 1999, I made about $2000 in graduation presents. I took half of that and bought gold eagles. Gold at the time, was around $400/oz IIRC. I REALLY wish I had dumped that whole little windfall into gold then and there, oh well
Curious how much that was, inflation adjusted. A thousand dollars was a ton of money for a recent college grad in 1999. At least, for this college grad and his $1800 ride it was.

 

[richc]

How do you get the inflation-adjusted numbers?

When I graduated college in 1999, I made about $2000 in graduation presents. I took half of that and bought gold eagles. Gold at the time, was around $400/oz IIRC. I REALLY wish I had dumped that whole little windfall into gold then and there, oh well
Curious how much that was, inflation adjusted. A thousand dollars was a ton of money for a recent college grad in 1999. At least, for this college grad and his $1800 ride it was.

I asked 3 different AI agents and they all came up with a close answer.

 

[richc]

Seems to be the indomitable move. The delivery delays from bullion banks should continue for sometime as gold flows into NY due to tariffs. Among many other events too.

Could you please use small words that I don't have to lookup?

 

[Varmint]

Gold is $2954. Wake me up at $3000.

Gold miners still asleep. Typical AISC for a gold miner is $1400, some are as low as $800. That’s insane margins at $3000 gold.

Recent gold to silver ratio has been 80:1. If we just return to that silver will be $37.50 at $3000 gold. Currently 91:1, we don’t usually stay at that high a ratio for long.

 

[Individualist]

Ratios have fluctuated quite a bit over time. It does seem like it is poised for a drop. How significant, only time will tell.

 

[richc]

Something is happening. Yup another $30 after hours

 

[Varmint]

Ratios have fluctuated quite a bit over time. It does seem like it is poised for a drop. How significant, only time will tell.

View attachment 963306

There’s huge silver resistance at $33, not much above that so the bears are trying to hold the line. I think they’ll fail if gold tops $3000. Then you’ll probably see silver go to $37-38, which is the last resistance level before $50.

 

[Varmint]

Something is happening. Yup another $30 after hours

View attachment 963307

Central banks don’t buy gold future in the middle of the night. So I think it’s simply institutional investors and hedge funds jumping on the gold bandwagon. It’s the best performing sector in 2025.

 

[Individualist]

Interesting article from October making a speculative case for $150+ silver if the ratio really drops to historic levels. However that was based on gold at $2600. I think a more realistic scenario is in a couple more years with gold at $5000 the ratio drops to 50:1 and we have silver st $100. At 40:1 it’s $125.

Silver Worth $150-$170? - Facts To Make The Case For A Major Price Surge

Between the inflation-adjusted historical highs, the tightening gold-silver ratio, and the momentum, silver is the most exciting opportunity on the market right now.

talkmarkets.com

 

[Varmint]

Interesting article from October making a speculative case for $150+ silver if the ratio really drops to historic levels. However that was based on gold at $2600. I think a more realistic scenario is in a few more years with gold at $5000 the ratio drops to 50:1 and we have silver st $100. At 40:1 it’s $125.

Silver Worth $150-$170? - Facts To Make The Case For A Major Price Surge

Between the inflation-adjusted historical highs, the tightening gold-silver ratio, and the momentum, silver is the most exciting opportunity on the market right now.

talkmarkets.com

Yeah I think the ratio is really only an indicator of sentiment, and there’s no interest in silver right now among investors. If gold gets going and retail investors wake up, they’ll start buying silver cause gold is too expensive. Then you’ll get that spike to 50:1 kind of ratios, probably followed by a bear market.

Silver miners will be exploding then as well.

 

[Varmint]

Gold hit $2968 before pulling back $20.

 

[Individualist]

Gold hit $2968 before pulling back $20.

That’s it. I’m out.

 

[Varmint]

Gold and silver have seemingly weathered yet another overnight attempt by the banks to drive them down.

Get ready to pay up banksters. Gonna be some huge short covering if silver can break above $33.

 

[Trafficdiver]

Gold and silver have seemingly weathered yet another overnight attempt by the banks to drive them down.

Get ready to pay up banksters. Gonna be some huge short covering if silver can break above $33.

I have this pit of my stomach feeling that BOA is going to get disemboweled only to have the government run in and say "To big to fail" and print out another 10 Trillion to cover them.

Because of this I don't think $2900 is a terrible deal. I don't see how we avoid $50K per oz gold?

 

[Varmint]

I have this pit of my stomach feeling that BOA is going to get disemboweled only to have the government run in and say "To big to fail" and print out another 10 Trillion to cover them.

Because of this I don't think $2900 is a terrible deal. I don't see how we avoid $50K per oz gold?

Or not just BOA but all banks. Yes I think a massive global bailout is inevitable, the question is can they do a global reset without blowing up the gold price. I don’t think a gold backed currency is at all possible, it’s just too impractical, but gold will explode anyway if there’s an anticipation of a global or dollar reset.

 

[Varmint]

Interesting that gold and silver sold off like everything else on the hot inflation news, but now have completely reversed, while the rest of the market has not.

 

[Trafficdiver]

I can't see any reason not to buy a lot of physical silver. It's $32 per oz!?! That's two McDonalds meals. Why not have a stash?

 

[Parker Schreiber]

I can't see any reason not to buy a lot of physical silver. It's $32 per oz!?! That's two McDonalds meals. Why not have a stash?

Here's a reason. Note "bid" price of $31.85. In effect, you're facing a "house edge" of over 15%. On other silver products, the bid/ask spread can top 20%.


Something else to consider is how you plan to store that silver, and please don't answer that in a public forum. Suffice it to say that your typical gun safe isn't designed to withstand a planned attack. Safe deposit boxes cost money, and that assumes you can find a bank which still offers them. Nor, as we saw during COVID can you assume easy on-demand access. Insurance companies don't require additional riders to insure, say, sterling silver flatware, but the standard homeowners' policy typically covers only small amounts of bullion or rare coins. A specialized policy typically requires storage in a TL-15 or higher rated safe. Suffice it to say those don't come cheap.

Does that mean you shouldn't buy or hold physical silver? Well, given that I hold silver, including the coin below, it would be pretty hypocritical of me to say that. But given altenatives such as the SLV trust, I suggest thinking through why you want physical metal and if it's worth the costs and risks.

 

[richc]

There likely will be a huge tug of war when gold gets close to $3K.

I would that it could take months of back and forth before there's a final push above. Unless, of course, there's some major international incident that no one sees coming and sends the masses to seek a safe haven investment.

 

[Trafficdiver]

Here's a reason. Note "bid" price of $31.85. In effect, you're facing a "house edge" of over 15%. On other silver products, the bid/ask spread can top 20%.
View attachment 963774

Something else to consider is how you plan to store that silver, and please don't answer that in a public forum. Suffice it to say that your typical gun safe isn't designed to withstand a planned attack. Safe deposit boxes cost money, and that assumes you can find a bank which still offers them. Nor, as we saw during COVID can you assume easy on-demand access. Insurance companies don't require additional riders to insure, say, sterling silver flatware, but the standard homeowners' policy typically covers only small amounts of bullion or rare coins. A specialized policy typically requires storage in a TL-15 or higher rated safe. Suffice it to say those don't come cheap.

Does that mean you shouldn't buy or hold physical silver? Well, given that I hold silver, including the coin below, it would be pretty hypocritical of me to say that. But given altenatives such as the SLV trust, I suggest thinking through why you want physical metal and if it's worth the costs and risks.

View attachment 963784

Ok so it costs 3 McDonalds meals. An oz of gold costs 200 McDonalds Meals.

As for someone stealing them, sure, someone could steal them, someone could murder me. Life doesn't come with a guarantee, but I'll take my chances.

My dad had a gun safe for 40 years and we made it out alive.

SLV is a blackrock scam. When things break down, if you don't hold it, you don't own it. That SLV will get you a warm fart when the dollar tanks.

And I want to feel my money, not let some other a**h*** play with it.

 

[richc]

Here's a reason. Note "bid" price of $31.85. In effect, you're facing a "house edge" of over 15%. On other silver products, the bid/ask spread can top 20%.
View attachment 963774

Something else to consider is how you plan to store that silver, and please don't answer that in a public forum. Suffice it to say that your typical gun safe isn't designed to withstand a planned attack. Safe deposit boxes cost money, and that assumes you can find a bank which still offers them. Nor, as we saw during COVID can you assume easy on-demand access. Insurance companies don't require additional riders to insure, say, sterling silver flatware, but the standard homeowners' policy typically covers only small amounts of bullion or rare coins. A specialized policy typically requires storage in a TL-15 or higher rated safe. Suffice it to say those don't come cheap.

Does that mean you shouldn't buy or hold physical silver? Well, given that I hold silver, including the coin below, it would be pretty hypocritical of me to say that. But given altenatives such as the SLV trust, I suggest thinking through why you want physical metal and if it's worth the costs and risks.

View attachment 963784

The silver I have I've bought when premiums have been low. You are right that the premiums over sport for silver are high right now. But silver rounds can be had for spot at some places.

The other thing is the spread is really a function of supply and demand. During the last run up you could sell American Eagles to some dealers for $5 over spot all day long. The dealers were selling for $15 over spot.

A year ago I bought a mint box of silver eagles for about $12,500 with a very small premium over spot. They're selling now for about $18K.

Pro tip... historically January is a weak month for silver and gold, barring some major event that drives people towards a safe haven investment. Dealers say people often sell who need cash for the holidays, or to pay off their credit card bills in January.

Certainly YMMV. But deals do appear. And you can actually make money on the spread during times of big demand.