So what are the investing gurus thinking here? Au is on an absolute tear.
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Finalygotabeltfed
Really?
Thats an actual historical gold price graph from Kitco.com from 1995 to the date posted, how could it possibly NOT apply? It has already happened and appliedand its even steeper now.
Thats like saying a picture of your smashed up car after an accident isn't evidence of the car being damaged.
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It's more like showing a picture of a smashed up car is evidence it will get smashed again. It may happen; it may not.
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Finalygotabeltfed
Given the historical and future certainty of the devaluation of the dollar I'll take my chances with gold, it hasn't failed yet and doubtful that it will. If countries are buying it by the ton, I can't go wrong with a few ounces.
IMHO gold is a way to preserve your assets as opposed to paper money. In a down ecomony, gold will have value whereas fiat currency will not. And, inflation will eat way at the value of paper money, propelling gold further. However, I also don't think gold will be a good currency to have to use in an inflated economy. Silver, otoh, will be.
Right now a silver dime is worth about $3.00 in paper currency. So, if I need a loaf of bread, a dime would buy that with change. A silver quarter is worth about $7.50 today. That will buy a steak. A silver dollar is worth about $32 now. The point is that when fiat currency devalues, silver coins will be the currency not based on their face value but in thier silver content. Silver has finally begun to break free of that $40 barrier and looks to continue to finally climb on the markets. Right now, today, there are store that advertise that they will accept silver coins as payment. You hand the coins to the clerk, they weight it, calculating value against the current price per troy ounce. That, to me, confirms the place that silver will have in the very near future.
After much discussion, my wife and I decided to purchase silver with some of our savings and have it stashed in our safe. Of course the lower you can purchase it, the more you'll gain as silver begins to climb to the "typical" spread against gold. Historically speaking, that ratio was 16:1. With gold at almost $1900 an ounce, silver should climb to over $118 an ounce. At that price, a silver dollar will trade at over $100 a piece.
Is it a gamble? Only if you're uncertain about the future of our current ecomony and the economy's of Europe and those countries that are tettering on bankrupcy. I, for one, don't want to wake up and find out that it will take $1000 in paper dollars to buy a gallon of milk. If the economy stablizes (doubtful) then we sell the silver at market if we need to.
Rome
Right now a silver dime is worth about $3.00 in paper currency. So, if I need a loaf of bread, a dime would buy that with change. A silver quarter is worth about $7.50 today. That will buy a steak. A silver dollar is worth about $32 now. The point is that when fiat currency devalues, silver coins will be the currency not based on their face value but in thier silver content. Silver has finally begun to break free of that $40 barrier and looks to continue to finally climb on the markets. Right now, today, there are store that advertise that they will accept silver coins as payment. You hand the coins to the clerk, they weight it, calculating value against the current price per troy ounce. That, to me, confirms the place that silver will have in the very near future.
After much discussion, my wife and I decided to purchase silver with some of our savings and have it stashed in our safe. Of course the lower you can purchase it, the more you'll gain as silver begins to climb to the "typical" spread against gold. Historically speaking, that ratio was 16:1. With gold at almost $1900 an ounce, silver should climb to over $118 an ounce. At that price, a silver dollar will trade at over $100 a piece.
Is it a gamble? Only if you're uncertain about the future of our current ecomony and the economy's of Europe and those countries that are tettering on bankrupcy. I, for one, don't want to wake up and find out that it will take $1000 in paper dollars to buy a gallon of milk. If the economy stablizes (doubtful) then we sell the silver at market if we need to.
Rome
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A couple of items I find appealing about the metals:
- There will be, for practical purposes, a floor price - it will never to go "zero", or 10% of current value - something that has even happened to fortune 500 firms.
- The asset exists outside the system. I wonder how many seniors on a medacaid spenddown for long term care wish they had squirreled some of their assets away in gold years ago.
However, the sellers ALWAYS have few standard arguments as to why now is the time to buy:
- Metal A is selling for less than the current cost of producing it from the ground.
- The ratio for Metal A vs. Metal B is out of historical whack, so B is underpriced (A is never overpriced; B is always underpriced)
>Is it a gamble?
ALL investing is a gamble. Even US securities carry inflation risk. Anyone who claims to have identified an investment that offers above market returns without about market risk does not understand the concept - even though their personal prediction for future price movement may very well turn out to be absolutely true.
- There will be, for practical purposes, a floor price - it will never to go "zero", or 10% of current value - something that has even happened to fortune 500 firms.
- The asset exists outside the system. I wonder how many seniors on a medacaid spenddown for long term care wish they had squirreled some of their assets away in gold years ago.
However, the sellers ALWAYS have few standard arguments as to why now is the time to buy:
- Metal A is selling for less than the current cost of producing it from the ground.
- The ratio for Metal A vs. Metal B is out of historical whack, so B is underpriced (A is never overpriced; B is always underpriced)
>Is it a gamble?
ALL investing is a gamble. Even US securities carry inflation risk. Anyone who claims to have identified an investment that offers above market returns without about market risk does not understand the concept - even though their personal prediction for future price movement may very well turn out to be absolutely true.
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Making the decision to move to either gold or silver is a hard one. As Rob says, it is a gamble of sorts. But, as Rob also says, everything you "invest" in is a gamble. Even if you put your money in your mattress, you're gambling on the chance that there will be no positive movement in the markets that might propel your money to work harder for you and you'll lose that lift by stashing it someplace stagnant.
Most of us suffer from what's known as the "normalcy bias". We're expecting that the economy will swing back to the way it has always done and that'll be that. Everything will return to normal once again. Unfortunately, however, this time there are huge factors and multiple variables that may preclude our ecomony from coming back in the forseeable future. What will happen then? Inflation? Deflation? No one really knows. So, you have to ask yourself what do you do in the meantime? Many big investors are recommending treasury bonds (a whoppint 1.6% over 10 years) or local CDs at your local banks (maybe a 2% rate there). In light of that, it makes sense to preserve what you've got using gold and/or silver until such time that the markets do stablize. If they don't then you've still got a good asset. If they do, you can sell. At least it's a good hedge to doing nothing. Remember that if you do nothing but try to ride this out, you've decided that you have full faith in our government and ecomony to keep your fiat money valueable. We decided that we had to do somthing and took the plunge and have not reconsidered our decision one time since. AAMOF we're probably going to invest further if we can afford it. To not do something was not an option. Want some history? Check out these charts. This is history that seems to be repeating itself.
Rome
Most of us suffer from what's known as the "normalcy bias". We're expecting that the economy will swing back to the way it has always done and that'll be that. Everything will return to normal once again. Unfortunately, however, this time there are huge factors and multiple variables that may preclude our ecomony from coming back in the forseeable future. What will happen then? Inflation? Deflation? No one really knows. So, you have to ask yourself what do you do in the meantime? Many big investors are recommending treasury bonds (a whoppint 1.6% over 10 years) or local CDs at your local banks (maybe a 2% rate there). In light of that, it makes sense to preserve what you've got using gold and/or silver until such time that the markets do stablize. If they don't then you've still got a good asset. If they do, you can sell. At least it's a good hedge to doing nothing. Remember that if you do nothing but try to ride this out, you've decided that you have full faith in our government and ecomony to keep your fiat money valueable. We decided that we had to do somthing and took the plunge and have not reconsidered our decision one time since. AAMOF we're probably going to invest further if we can afford it. To not do something was not an option. Want some history? Check out these charts. This is history that seems to be repeating itself.
Rome
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Finalygotabeltfed
I agree. All investing is a gamble. I'm a relatively small potatoes owner of PMs and I bought when it was far lower than today's prices with the intent of holding it. So far I'm ahead of the game and haven't lost a penny. I also don't see it ever falling back to or below my purchase prices. I don't personally know anyone thats in the stock market that has not taken large hits in their portfolios so far. The likelyhood is that they will continue to take hits as the market corrects itself to more realistic proportions.
It's not always an either or proposition. Stagflation, deflation in the things you want with inflation in the things you need, is also a very real possibility.
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If you're totally convinced you can do a leveraged buy of short positions and make a fortune as the market falls. If you're not confident of that, you're back that pesky "risk thing"
Gold fell off a cliff today. It's fallen; can it get up? LOL
u r full of it, dude. 1995, gold was $300 an oz, and now it's over $1900 an oz. 8% annual returns, rule of 72'sa says doubles your money in 9 years. 1995 to today is just 16 years, yet the price has gone up 6x. that means that it has doubled every 6 years, and it has now nearly doubled in ONE year. That means that MORE people overseas are wizing up about how we are "paying for" our wars, bailouts, etc. We are simply printing more money, with nothing to back it up. So they are DUMPING $ to buy gold, to protect themselves from our inflation. We will never again see gold for less than $1500 an oz, and I will be surprised if it ever again falls below $1700 an oz.
u get TAXED even on UNREALIZED "gains" on taxes and most other investments. Nobody needs to know about your dealings in gold. That is the primary value in it for many of us survivalists. I don't say to put money into gold as an investment. I say put money into it that you can afford to do without for many years. Until you have shtf skills, gear, and food, tho, wait on the gold buying. Buy 1/10th oz coins, no premium charged, at The Coin Shop, Farmington, NM> YOu can cut them in 1/2 with a chisel, they will still be accepted. use 1/2 to buy a bushel of grain, not a loaf of brain. Crack the grain and make porridge,it is far more efficient than making floor and bread, or noodles.
I have to disagree with some of what you say.
I think gold is going to $5000 at some point. When that happens I suspect you will have a tough time selling it without the .gov knowing about it. The "war on terror" already has given them the tools to find odd financial transactions....figure it out.
1/10 coins have a HUGE premium! 1/20 maples are going for $123.25 thats $2465/oz compare that to a 1oz maple which is $1908.
If you came to me post SHTF with a 1/20oz coin chiseled in half asking for a bushel of apples I would probably not take it since I have no idea how much gold is actually in the thing. I don't plan to have a gram scale in my BOB! Small transactions is what junk silver is for....a $100 face value bag can be had for $0.56 over spot per oz.
I think gold is going to $5000 at some point. When that happens I suspect you will have a tough time selling it without the .gov knowing about it. The "war on terror" already has given them the tools to find odd financial transactions....figure it out.
1/10 coins have a HUGE premium! 1/20 maples are going for $123.25 thats $2465/oz compare that to a 1oz maple which is $1908.
If you came to me post SHTF with a 1/20oz coin chiseled in half asking for a bushel of apples I would probably not take it since I have no idea how much gold is actually in the thing. I don't plan to have a gram scale in my BOB! Small transactions is what junk silver is for....a $100 face value bag can be had for $0.56 over spot per oz.
not at the shop I sent you to. I bought them there at spot price. I would take that 1/2 of a gold coin in a HEARTBEAT, if I had apples to spare. apples SPOIL, dude. Durability and readiness of carrying and durability are one of the main reasons metals were chosen as money.
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Finalygotabeltfed
Government will be irrelevant at that point in time. Any government enforcer that hasn't already been killed off by then will be in hiding in fear for their life.
Life has consequences.....government enforcers don't want to believe it.
I'd take a chiseled gold coin.......and shame on you if you don't have a beam scale on your counter. When Zimbabwe got to the point of weighing money instead of counting it, the beam scale and demand for gold dust only payment became the way of life.
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Finalygotabeltfed
I'll go with that, but I wouldn't turn down identifiable gold in any form as payment either.
I wont risk being shot, or catching a contagious disease, for something for which I won't give 1/2 of a 1/10th oz coin of gold . In fact, all my trading will be done by the dead drop method, for years after shtf starts, if I can possibly arrrange it, and I will be trading stuff that I can replace, if I can arrange it. Pelts, dried meat for fish, edible wild plant products and the like. Send them a message-arrow, where to look for a flag, note left under flag, leave products there. Start small, and WATCH them, to see if they poison anything, etc.
In fact, all my trading will be done by the dead drop method, for years after shtf starts, if I can possibly arrrange it, and I will be trading stuff that I can replace, if I can arrange it. Pelts, dried meat for fish, edible wild plant products and the like. Send them a message-arrow, where to look for a flag, note left under flag, leave products there. Start small, and WATCH them, to see if they poison anything, etc.Like Robin Hood?
I wont risk being shot, or catching a contagious disease, for something for which I won't give 1/2 of a 1/10th oz coin of gold .
In God We Trust
NES Member
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This thread has gone quiet but gold and silver have been very active. So whose buying what now that the President gave his speech today and Greece and Italy are starting to swirl down the bowl? I am broading my position in silver. QE3 or Twist or whatever you want to call it will drive down growth and the dollar along with the global debacle. $2,125 gold and $65 silver by end of year or its $1 menu McMuffins for everbody on me (you'll have to buy your own coffee i wont be able to afford it)! ![[crying]](/xen/styles/default/xenforo/smilies.vb/006.gif "Crying [crying]")
In God We Trust
NES Member
PMs are in a bit of a dip right now. I hope it goes down towards $35 again so I can buy some more. I am confident that in the long run, it will be a wise investment. If not, I'll melt it down into werewolf bullets.This thread has gone quiet but gold and silver have been very active. So whose buying what now that the President gave his speech today and Greece and Italy are starting to swirl down the bowl? I am broading my position in silver. QE3 or Twist or whatever you want to call it will drive down growth and the dollar along with the global debacle. $2,125 gold and $65 silver by end of year or its $1 menu McMuffins for everbody on me (you'll have to buy your own coffee i wont be able to afford it)!
ask and you shall receive... Silver is $30.80/oz right now. down 15% in one day!
In God We Trust
NES Member
Ugh. I bought 25 ounces this morning at around 35 bucks. I should have waited but recent history lead me to believe that it was going to stop before 34 and then head back up. Ill make up the diffence by buying more if it hits 25
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Billsail
NES Member
NOW might be the time to pull the trigger on gold or silver. They both tanked today. Of course all the gold I bought was about 12 years ago, mostly below $300 oz.
![[smile]](/xen/styles/default/xenforo/smilies.vb/001.gif "Smile [smile]")
Sorry, I seldom get a chance to gloat about anything with the luck I have.![[sad]](/xen/styles/default/xenforo/smilies.vb/004.gif "Sad [sad]")
