Gold and silver prices are down

djbradles said:
I hope so Chris. I’m afraid gold will take a tumble hardcore soon as risk on stays the theme. I wanna console myself that my mutual fund FSAGX with a ytd -17% is a good bet to keep pouring employee and employer money into with the outlook that I’m buying the dip like its a mini 2015-16 bear season.


Meanwhile ytd for energy, semiconductors, and housing have been +50-75% 🤦
Click to expand...

I think it’s a dangerous market because there are so many powerful forces pushing things around. We have massive inflation but energy and commodities have been going down, not up, as the transitory narrative goes away. I think that’s because it’s a different inflation from the 70s. We don’t have strong growth we have the opposite, so demand for things like copper is not there like when China was going gangbusters. And so much of what goes up and down these days is pure momentum trading. Just like gold, I think commodities and energy have great fundamentals and long-term prospects, but short term they aren't paying attention to fundamentals. If momentum traders lose interest in something it'll go down hard. Housing is probably the safest to keep going up since it's so hard to manipulate supply or demand like you can with commodities, energy or PMs.
 
Varmint said:
I think it’s a dangerous market because there are so many powerful forces pushing things around. We have massive inflation but energy and commodities have been going down, not up, as the transitory narrative goes away. I think that’s because it’s a different inflation from the 70s. We don’t have strong growth we have the opposite, so demand for things like copper is not there like when China was going gangbusters. And so much of what goes up and down these days is pure momentum trading. Just like gold, I think commodities and energy have great fundamentals and long-term prospects, but short term they aren't paying attention to fundamentals. If momentum traders lose interest in something it'll go down hard. Housing is probably the safest to keep going up since it's so hard to manipulate supply or demand like you can with commodities, energy or PMs.
Click to expand...
Well said and reasons why we should be careful to hedge appropriately.
 
djbradles said:
Can I make a bold assumption and say gold might go down to $1400-$1500’s in Q1 2022 with one last opportunity to make a “back up the truck” purchase? Not saying wait for it but if we see it you know what to do.
Click to expand...

If you look back at Jan 2020, nobody was saying stocks/gold/oil etc was going to have a massive crash and great buying opportunity. I think great buying opportunities are never forecasted by large numbers of analysts, which is why gold won't go that low. In August 2020 when everyone was buying up gold miners and gold at record highs, nobody was predicting a 60% drop in miners and $700 drop in gold. Yet now after that huge drop, lots of people are predicting a big drop. I don't think there are any sellers left - tax loss selling is done by now after the last couple days. Retail and institutional investors aren't even in gold or miners.
 
djbradles said:
Even the bears are bullish long term but a short term capitulation is not out of the cards yet.
Click to expand...

I think we already had the capitulation in miners - gold futures are another story, very different animal. You could still have the big banks come in and dump a billion in contracts at key support levels to manipulate gold down. Gold is testing $1800 right now - I expect another $2 billion surprise attack in the early morning if gold breaches $1800.
 
Varmint said:
If you look back at Jan 2020, nobody was saying stocks/gold/oil etc was going to have a massive crash and great buying opportunity. I think great buying opportunities are never forecasted by large numbers of analysts, which is why gold won't go that low. In August 2020 when everyone was buying up gold miners and gold at record highs, nobody was predicting a 60% drop in miners and $700 drop in gold. Yet now after that huge drop, lots of people are predicting a big drop. I don't think there are any sellers left - tax loss selling is done by now after the last couple days. Retail and institutional investors aren't even in gold or miners.
Click to expand...
Volume being so farcically low in miners does prove that to some degree but if, if we get some crash I would expect everything even the miners to take a further dive. How long if it does happen though? Who knows but timing the markets is a loss accelerator and I personally am not to trying to time such an event.
 
Varmint said:
I think we already had the capitulation in miners - gold futures are another story, very different animal. You could still have the big banks come in and dump a billion in contracts at key support levels to manipulate gold down. Gold is testing $1800 right now - I expect another $2 billion surprise attack in the early morning if gold breaches $1800.
Click to expand...
Mid to upper 1700’s have been holding very very well. Overnight toxic dumps of paper need to be curbed for sure.
 
djbradles said:
Volume being so farcically low in miners does prove that to some degree but if, if we get some crash I would expect everything even the miners to take a further dive. How long if it does happen though? Who knows but timing the markets is a loss accelerator and I personally am not to trying to time such an event.
Click to expand...

I think we'll get a 10-20% correction in stocks sometime next year, now that the Fed is committed to tapering - meaning they won't be jumping in to the rescue unless we get a 20% drop. I think that's what the market will give them.
 
Varmint said:
Last time they did it Sunday night so maybe that’s the plan. We really need to close above $1825 today.

Ok more of a want than a need.
Click to expand...
I believe the day of value stocks has finally arrived. Seeing the direct correlation of crypto and the Nasdaq is positive for us resource investors.
 
Varmint said:
Great Bear hasn’t done a PEA cause the deposit is too large, a PEA at this juncture didn’t make sense for it would vastly underestimate the value of the property. Kinross was smart, the naysayers just don’t know much about Great Bear.

It’s why they went ballistic when the rest of the gold market is in the toilet.
Click to expand...

I am going by what my two sources in the mining field tell me. They are the sources who got me into KL, PAAS very early. I trust their judgement when they tell me KGC made a mistake with this one. Time will tell.
 
Win said:
Funny. The investing shows I watch are starting to get bullish on PMs for 2022
Click to expand...
Varmint said:
I think we'll get a 10-20% correction in stocks sometime next year, now that the Fed is committed to tapering - meaning they won't be jumping in to the rescue unless we get a 20% drop. I think that's what the market will give them.
Click to expand...

Fed is not committed to the tapering. They are simply "talking" about it. It will continue to go on and at the slightest market turbulence the printers will go brrrrr even harder.
 
djbradles said:
Can I make a bold assumption and say gold might go down to $1400-$1500’s in Q1 2022 with one last opportunity to make a “back up the truck” purchase? Not saying wait for it but if we see it you know what to do.
Click to expand...

If gold goes down to $1400 range it's because we have a huge market correction and gold/miners are being sold off hard for liquidation/margin call purposes. Any other way, I doubt we get that big of a drop.
 
sacksjacked said:
Fed is not committed to the tapering. They are simply "talking" about it. It will continue to go on and at the slightest market turbulence the printers will go brrrrr even harder.
Click to expand...

The Fed is extremely careful about the wording, and the wording has changed from transitory and no rate hikes til 2023, to faster taper and 3 hikes next year. So they can’t go back without some justification or they’ll look like fools. I think it’ll take a 20% correction in stocks or a recession to make them bail on the taper.
 
sacksjacked said:
I am going by what my two sources in the mining field tell me. They are the sources who got me into KL, PAAS very early. I trust their judgement when they tell me KGC made a mistake with this one. Time will tell.
Click to expand...

Did these guys recommend Great Bear at 25 cents? $1? $3? $11?

If not then what makes you think they know Great Bear now? Kinross spent 3 years looking over the GBR drill results and geology, I doubt many analysts have done that.

They may have overpaid when you consider most other stocks are way underpriced right now. But there’s nothing else even close out there and they knew it.

I should add I wouldn't buy Kinross after this purchase, since they already paid GBR for a lot of the exploration upside.
 
Last edited:

Similar threads

Homemade buns and rolls
Replies
1
Views
286
grey
grey
Calcium Hypocholite - local and cheap water sanitizer!
Replies
6
Views
397
240Geezer
2
Gold Question from Newbie
Replies
23
Views
1K
Varmint
Varmint
FREE….seed starting and basic garden planning & questions seminar. 4/6/24 Hardwick MA
Replies
7
Views
269
mousegunguy
mousegunguy
Problem with my ExPed DownMat 7...
Replies
9
Views
506
Andy in NH
Andy in NH
Back
Top Bottom