Gold and silver prices are down

Over the past month US Dollar is down 3.16% against a basket of foreign currencies.

Bitcoin getting crushed today along with other cryptos. Bitcoin down 12.20% today.

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DJBrad said:
I believe smart money realizes that the Fed has played it’s hand. Or everyone is just dumb.
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There's a lot going on. Japan's been intervening the strengthen the yen (which brings the dollar down), China is talking about dropping the No-covid policy (gold up, dollar down on the news), and the 3 month to 10 year yield curve inversion is probably dollar bearish since it means recession.

The dollar weakness is probably temporary.
 
Varmint said:
There's a lot going on. Japan's been intervening the strengthen the yen (which brings the dollar down), China is talking about dropping the No-covid policy (gold up, dollar down on the news), and the 3 month to 10 year yield curve inversion is probably dollar bearish since it means recession.

The dollar weakness is probably temporary.
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Everyone also missed the Treasury announcement on Monday last week that A. The deficit will double in 2023 and B. The treasury market faces illiquidity. I realize many factors are at play and there are several worm holes to discover in this geopolitical quagmire. I do think the dollar faces a brief bearish sentiment. Almost every US note in inverted and I expect more proppant for foreign currencies, more price controls on gold, more balance sheet cleansing, more net sales of US treasuries from foreign central banks, and eventual Fed facing the music with only 2 options left: print or die. Do we really think they will reach a terminal rate of 5% or 6 % without completely ruining the global economy all for mere “confidence”? Insolvency is the end game at that level.
 
Just a reminder, sports fans, in the 1970s inflationary hell, gold dropped from $200 to $100 when the Fed started raising interest rates.

Then gold went from $100 to $850 despite rising interest rates. [popcorn]

A similar run would take gold from the $1000 low in 2016 to $8000. Make sure you take some profit by then. :)

gold-1970-2020.gif
 
Varmint said:
Just a reminder, sports fans, in the 1970s inflationary hell, gold dropped from $200 to $100 when the Fed started raising interest rates.

Then gold went from $100 to $850 despite rising interest rates. [popcorn]

A similar run would take gold from the $1000 low in 2016 to $8000. Make sure you take some profit by then. :)

gold-1970-2020.gif
Click to expand...
So it’s probably likely to pull back some more before it goes up again?

I’m starting to figure out that I’m glad I didn’t buy PM’s as an investment…though I’m up on silver still, I’m definitely in the hole on gold.

No plan to sell and just sitting on it all until if/when I ever really need it. Might still buy one more 1/2oz eagle to round out my collection but I don’t see myself buying much more for now. With my 401k portfolio and cash down a little, I think I’m a little heavy on PM’s percentage wise. Not a horrible thing if the scenario you mention plays out, but that would also likely mean the dollar goes to shit at the same time, right?
 
76Too said:
So it’s probably likely to pull back some more before it goes up again?

I’m starting to figure out that I’m glad I didn’t buy PM’s as an investment…though I’m up on silver still, I’m definitely in the hole on gold.

No plan to sell and just sitting on it all until if/when I ever really need it. Might still buy one more 1/2oz eagle to round out my collection but I don’t see myself buying much more for now. With my 401k portfolio and cash down a little, I think I’m a little heavy on PM’s percentage wise. Not a horrible thing if the scenario you mention plays out, but that would also likely mean the dollar goes to shit at the same time, right?
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Well, gold has been consolidating for over 2 years so it can certainly vascillate a little more before it makes the move to above $2100. We're not likely to see that before either the Fed starts cutting rates (not pausing but actually cutting) or restarting QE, or if the stock market crashes you could see a rotation into gold.

Right now the central banks are big buyers of gold, and retail investors are selling or shorting it.

Gold miners are an investment, gold is more like insurance or a currency (that doesn't constantly lose purchasing power).
 
Varmint said:
Well, gold has been consolidating for over 2 years so it can certainly vascillate a little more before it makes the move to above $2100. We're not likely to see that before either the Fed starts cutting rates (not pausing but actually cutting) or restarting QE, or if the stock market crashes you could see a rotation into gold.

Right now the central banks are big buyers of gold, and retail investors are selling or shorting it.

Gold miners are an investment, gold is more like insurance or a currency (that doesn't constantly lose purchasing power).
Click to expand...

An extraordinarily strong US dollar has driven down the price of gold. And personally I believe that a lot of "safe haven" buying of gold went to cryptos over the past few years. With recent upheavals in the crypto market it's possible we'll see any flight to safety move back to gold.
 
A few days ago some bozo on this forum (it was me [laugh]) said that they saw PMs declining in the near term. Now I'm not sure. What's your guys thoughts? Are the lows in? And bonus question: what's your confidence level in your opinion. I'll go first:

Lows might just be in. Confidence level 3%
 
Win said:
A few days ago some bozo on this forum (it was me [laugh]) said that they saw PMs declining in the near term. Now I'm not sure. What's your guys thoughts? Are the lows in? And bonus question: what's your confidence level in your opinion. I'll go first:

Lows might just be in. Confidence level 3%
Click to expand...
Gold is soley controlled by the paper markets which follow equities closely. Dollar down, gold up. Inflation down, gold up. Treasuries down, gold up. We have pretty much peaked in the usd, 10yr treasuries, and inflation…….for now. Gold needs to decouple from equity and paper markets for an appreciable change. When bad global economic news comes back we may get the decoupling we have longed for. Many unknowns still wrt to Fed policy but we are clearly in a mid term/ Santa Claus/ end of year rally which is taking gold up with everything else.

The things that matter most to me is the smart money moving into gold (ie, central banks buying recently) and real yields being negative.
 
Let me get this straight. The CPI drops to 7.7%, and based on that one positive indicator, investors decide we're not heading into a recession and start buying stocks like crazy? "Hey, the CPI dropped to 7.7%, all is well, recession canceled. Let's get back to the bull market!"
 
Well, you know the way things are today with the gov being so trustworthy, it might be. It's just such a strong reaction to 7.7 instead of 7.9 and the fed maybe raising rates 2 basis points instead of 3 in December. There are still some crazy ass inversions in the Treasuries market. What is this, Mardi Gras?
 
meh said:
Let me get this straight. The CPI drops to 7.7%, and based on that one positive indicator, investors decide we're not heading into a recession and start buying stocks like crazy? "Hey, the CPI dropped to 7.7%, all is well, recession canceled. Let's get back to the bull market!"
Click to expand...

Yes, exactly. This tells you we have not hit bottom, that the Buy the Dip bubble market mentality is still alive and well.
 

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