Win
NES Member
I have little doubt that the breakout is coming, I'm just skeptical that it's so soon. I think we see a larger selloff in the stock market and crypto dragging PMs down before the breakout.
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Gold and silver prices are down
- Thread starter Rider
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Varmint
NES Member
Yes, in fact if gold and miners have a big run and then the stock market tanks, you’ll have more sellers of PMs and miners.
Right now nobody owns miners so they won’t be dragged down too much. Institutional ownership of the sector is under 1%. Even a lot of mining bulls are mostly out of the sector.
The Saudi's tried that with silver with the Hunt brothers. If gold goes to $3600 the US will do something to counterbalance it. Maybe sell off a million ounces from Fort Knox and replenish our strategic oil reserves while paying down some national debt. (Nahhhh.. that won't happen)
Varmint
NES Member
Assuming there’s any actual gold in Ft Knox. It was last audited in 1974.
![[laugh]](/xen/styles/default/xenforo/smilies.vb/012.gif "Laugh [laugh]")
![[popcorn]](/xen/styles/default/xenforo/smilies.vb/043.gif "Popcorn [popcorn]")
His idea doesn’t make sense to me, why would Russia accept less gold for their oil? They supply like 14% of the world’s oil so not sure that’s enough to manipulate the gold price.
Maybe he’s just pointing out that Russia has monetary weapons it can use.
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Was just listening to that podcast with Trevor Hall on my way home last night. A plausible scenario.
richc
NES Member
Over six months gold is up 10.86%. But silver is up 28.99%.
Seems like gold has a long way to go to catch up to silver.
Which time span is more important? Is silver just taking a breather or about to take a dump?
richc
NES Member
Agreed
Varmint
NES Member
Silver probably taking a breather yes. It’s come a long way and needs to consolidate. That outperformance was a very bullish sign for the sector.
Varmint
NES Member
From Lobo Tigre’s free newsletter.
Varmint
NES Member
It’s not true though, gold bugs have been fully invested in miners all year and are at the bottom of the pool. Sentiment is poor and the rally has been very low volume.
Well, I'll open my mouth once again. I've said that silver will hit $30 before it hits $17 and silver did a dead cat bounce off of $17 for one day and has been pretty straight up since then. I'm looking at $30+ and a cash out.
Varmint
NES Member
Silver hitting $30 will be like a Trident missile breaking the surface of the ocean. You’ll have massive institutional investors piling in at that level.
View: https://youtu.be/1aPvGGvnAGQ
Varmint
NES Member
My other paid newsletter guy who’s a technical analyst, talking about whether gold is in a dead cat bounce or new bull market.
Subscriber Q&A
I don’t understand why you have rushed to make a call of “the end of the cyclical gold bear” and saying that gold is strong both fundamentally and technically. I mean, if you look at the monthly gold candle chart, it is technically very bearish: first there was a double top, then it broke the consolidation support and made a clear lower low. And now gold is potentially making a dead cat bounce to the resistance with aim to make a significant lower high. A perfect textbook case would be if it failed here around 1900, maybe with a big reversal candle, and then started to roll over to 1560 and 1450. Maybe even to 1370 since that 2016 consolidation roof was never tested. This gold correction has been so far quite muted (only 22 % compared to about 50 % in 1974-76) so a big leg down would strengthen the case for a potential huge move up later in this decade. Looking at gold in foreign currency, major indicators (MACD, RSI, stochastics) are making sharp monthly negative divergences which could indicate that this ongoing rally is just making a lower high before dropping to 200 week moving average?
All this being said pure technically without fundamental considerations, where can also be found significant potential headwinds to gold. But if we look at just the technical analysis now, do you disagree with above mentioned bear formation and if so, why?
Yes Gold made a double top but Gold also had a failed breakdown (at $1675) and now has retraced more than 62% of the decline. A dead cat bounce would entail Gold rallying from $1620 back to $1675-$1725 and then rolling over again. It has gone way too far for that and now it’s outperforming everything. This is a market that has gained strength. This is the opposite of failure behavior.
A big down leg is not needed for a huge move up. Gold is at the same level of 12 years ago. Gold against many metrics a few months ago was close to 1970 and 2000 levels. The $1375 level does not need to be retested. From 2016-2018 Gold tested it three different times before breaking through. There does not need to be a retest.
Momentum indicators are derivatives of price and they will always show divergences coming off major bottoms. Momentum indicators are not important. RSI is the best, btw.
There was a lot of technical damage after the 30% decline in 2008 and Gold came right back up. There is more damage this time around so it will be interesting to see how long it takes Gold to get through $1900-$1950.
Subscriber Q&A
I don’t understand why you have rushed to make a call of “the end of the cyclical gold bear” and saying that gold is strong both fundamentally and technically. I mean, if you look at the monthly gold candle chart, it is technically very bearish: first there was a double top, then it broke the consolidation support and made a clear lower low. And now gold is potentially making a dead cat bounce to the resistance with aim to make a significant lower high. A perfect textbook case would be if it failed here around 1900, maybe with a big reversal candle, and then started to roll over to 1560 and 1450. Maybe even to 1370 since that 2016 consolidation roof was never tested. This gold correction has been so far quite muted (only 22 % compared to about 50 % in 1974-76) so a big leg down would strengthen the case for a potential huge move up later in this decade. Looking at gold in foreign currency, major indicators (MACD, RSI, stochastics) are making sharp monthly negative divergences which could indicate that this ongoing rally is just making a lower high before dropping to 200 week moving average?
All this being said pure technically without fundamental considerations, where can also be found significant potential headwinds to gold. But if we look at just the technical analysis now, do you disagree with above mentioned bear formation and if so, why?
Yes Gold made a double top but Gold also had a failed breakdown (at $1675) and now has retraced more than 62% of the decline. A dead cat bounce would entail Gold rallying from $1620 back to $1675-$1725 and then rolling over again. It has gone way too far for that and now it’s outperforming everything. This is a market that has gained strength. This is the opposite of failure behavior.
A big down leg is not needed for a huge move up. Gold is at the same level of 12 years ago. Gold against many metrics a few months ago was close to 1970 and 2000 levels. The $1375 level does not need to be retested. From 2016-2018 Gold tested it three different times before breaking through. There does not need to be a retest.
Momentum indicators are derivatives of price and they will always show divergences coming off major bottoms. Momentum indicators are not important. RSI is the best, btw.
There was a lot of technical damage after the 30% decline in 2008 and Gold came right back up. There is more damage this time around so it will be interesting to see how long it takes Gold to get through $1900-$1950.
Win
NES Member
Sentiment has also grown more positive over the last several months
Varmint
NES Member
I didn’t realize $1923 is the 2011 high. 
Neither did I actuallyI didn’t realize $1923 is the 2011 high.
Nor did I in reality
Varmint
NES Member
Seriously. It’s been many long years I’ve waited for this….$1931 highWhy wait, let’s get this test of $2000 over already.
When gold made its major run in ‘08-‘11 there was no net sales of us treasuries from foreigners. Cue the biggest move in history!
Varmint
NES Member
Well it hit $2000 back in March so don’t get too excited yet!
I’m looking beyond $2k. Little profit taking on the futures this am and I’m pretty sure we won’t see sub $1800 again.
richc
NES Member
If this guy's advice is spot on, why does he sell a newsletter? He'd be better off leveraged investing and making a fortune...
Varmint
NES Member
Cause (a) technical analysis is not an exact science, it is about probability, and (b) he says never use leverage with junior mining stocks.
Even if you’re a great investor (and his stocks picks aren’t that good) you still need a source of income, especially with the Fed keeping interest rates so low the last 20 years.
Usually he’s much more conservative, I’ve never seen him this certain about the gold bottom being in and the breakout coming soon. I find that interesting.
My other newsletter guy (Dave Erfle) is a lot better at stock picking but also costs 3X as much.
Varmint
NES Member
There’s a lot of people saying gold and gold miners need a final washout, which doesn’t make sense to me. Gold triple bottomed at $1680 and miners saw completely bombed out decade low levels this summer and fall.
The market doesn’t give you endless opportunities.
Looks like a wash out to me :/
richc
NES Member
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