Second half of the year is a common timeframe for further downside. We could see it earlier than that after Q1 reports come out. It’s possible earnings are still strong but guidance weak. A boiling frog.
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Gold and silver prices are down
- Thread starter Rider
- Start date
richc
NES Member
IMHO no one can predict timelines. Simply not possible.
PM's react inversely to the strength/weakness of the US Dollar. But they also react to unpredictable world events. They are considered a "flight to safety" investment during volatile times.
There are organizations with departments full of Phd's with the best super computers and programmers available, and they are unable to predict such things.
Us mere mortals are not worthy.
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Let me preface this by reminding everyone that I don't know what I'm talking about. I'm just thinking "out loud".
Q2 is not looking good for the economy. Of course what that will do to the market will depend on how investors process it all. Supposedly there's a lot of cash waiting to ambush a crash. Some of it is mine
, but what was it Berkshire Hathaway has over $130B in "cash" right now? Something like that. Just thinking this through, if enough investors have the same idea, once a big correction does arrive, there should be lots of volatility, oscillations of rallies followed by profit-taking fallbacks, until all that potential energy from the dam bursting gets dissipated. Like I said, I don't know what I'm talking about, but will investors rush into PMs during all that, when everybody thinks they're the smartest guy in the room? Maybe after. Somehow the market has a way of luring the greatest possible number of people into making the wrong decisions.
Q2 is not looking good for the economy. Of course what that will do to the market will depend on how investors process it all. Supposedly there's a lot of cash waiting to ambush a crash. Some of it is mine
, but what was it Berkshire Hathaway has over $130B in "cash" right now? Something like that. Just thinking this through, if enough investors have the same idea, once a big correction does arrive, there should be lots of volatility, oscillations of rallies followed by profit-taking fallbacks, until all that potential energy from the dam bursting gets dissipated. Like I said, I don't know what I'm talking about, but will investors rush into PMs during all that, when everybody thinks they're the smartest guy in the room? Maybe after. Somehow the market has a way of luring the greatest possible number of people into making the wrong decisions.
Hi, I'm very late to this, and am now considering buying some gold/silver. Can someone let me know the best places to buy from? Is it through the US Mint, APMEX, or someplace else? For now, I will be looking to buy coins. I will go back to the beginning of the thread and see what I can find out, but it will take forever to go through the 8k+ responses. Any help is appreciated.
Win
NES Member
For common gold and silver coins I’ve had good experiences with apmex and Liberty coin. You can occasionally find modest deals on heritage auction as well as stacks and bowers auctions. There are a number of other reputable dealers in this area that I just don’t have experience with.
yogi
NES Member
For coins, I’ve had luck with Apmex but my best buys have been getting new, proof editions of from the US Mint of both silver and gold coins. Demand has been high for physical coins and most times the mint sells out, especially with fractional gold and silver eagles. Others on here (like RichC) get good deals on eBay but I have no experience. I am no professional, just a dude that started dollar cost averaging over 12 years ago to diversify my retirement portfolio and have some cool looking coins
. Good luck, do your homework, and post good deals here!
PM's. I wouldn't turn away a good deal on a collectible, but that is not my primary reason for buying.
Varmint
NES Member
Technicial analysis is about probabilities, but many of them sort of omit that language and say “this is what will happen” cause it gets them attention. They should say “this is the most likely scenario” it better yet, “if this happens, this is the likely scenario.”
Varmint
NES Member
I’ve heard him talk occasionally on podcasts for the last 5-6 years and his predictions aren’t very good. He’s one of those analysts who sounds really good and reasonable but he makes big predictions that don’t pan out. But he’s bullish gold for reasons that make sense.
I don’t really worry about when gold will make its next bull run, I think it’s more important to figure out what are the likely levels gold is going to go to. 4 months ago gold broke through $1700 and everyone was predicting gold was going to $1500, and it fooled most people by bottoming at $1630 and moving up $350.
There is huge support around $1780-1800 and in the unlikely event that breaks there’s $1680-1700 where central banks will step in again and buy up cheap gold.
On the upside $2000 and $2070 are major ceilings cause if we break above that there’s literally no resistance above.
Also look at gold miners and silver to predict gold moves. They both predicted that gold would fail to break out and would return to $1780-1800 or below. I was posting that here back in January when gold was moving up and silver and the miners were not.
SLV continued to struggle today, and I don't much like the shape of that curve. Since I'm new to PMs, I wasn't primed to read the signs. When it rallies again, I'm going to pay more attention to the warning signs and take profits. I should have done that with GLD, too, but at least I got in at the right time there.
Varmint
NES Member
I haven’t bought gold in several years, but like rich and some others I like EBay cause you can use a credit card and still get the cash price if you watch for sales. Apmex has weekly sales on their eBay store front that I used to watch.
I don’t buy gold cause I bought up a decent amount of gold and silver back when they were cheaper and nobody was buying. Now even if the futures price of gold or silver is low, retail PM prices are still high cause there’s never enough supply to meet demand.
I also prefer to buy gold and silver miners who are currently valued at crazy cheap prices. Some of these companies have gold in the ground valued at $25/oz or silver at pennies per ounce. Look at oil stocks, some of the biggest names are up 1000% since 2020 when the same clueless investors thought oil companies were worthless.
Varmint
NES Member
I don’t even try to predict silver cause it’s so complicated (and easily manipulated) I just focus on gold and know that if gold breaks to new highs silver will follow eventually.
But if you see both silver and miners moving together and not following gold, it’s usually predicting a similar move in gold. Kind of like how the riskiest stock sectors often move first before the general stock market.
Varmint
NES Member
I know you’re talking about the stock market rather than PMs in case anyone was confused.
There’s lots of legitimate concern that if stocks crash gold will go down a lot due to margin calls etc. I don’t worry about this cause (a) stocks may not crash like 2008, they could just continue down in an orderly manner, and (b) such a sell off in gold would be very temporary and a buying opportunity like in 2008 and 2020.
Miners meanwhile have already crashed. There won’t be any margin call selling cause nobody owns miners anymore.
![[laugh]](/xen/styles/default/xenforo/smilies.vb/012.gif "Laugh [laugh]")
I do agree there may not be a capitulation selloff unless some really bad swans start flapping their wings. It has been orderly so far which gives the Fed a few pats on the back.I know you’re talking about the stock market rather than PMs in case anyone was confused.
There’s lots of legitimate concern that if stocks crash gold will go down a lot due to margin calls etc. I don’t worry about this cause (a) stocks may not crash like 2008, they could just continue down in an orderly manner, and (b) such a sell off in gold would be very temporary and a buying opportunity like in 2008 and 2020.
Miners meanwhile have already crashed. There won’t be any margin call selling cause nobody owns miners anymore.
Miners will do very well once we get the markets cleared up from all the zombies companies and trash stocks. Do we get to the point of everybody hating stocks? Probably not.
Now with gold there is just too much blue potential based on a plethora of macros.
Unless it's all lies, news from Fortitude Gold Corp is fairly positive: Fortitude Gold: News Releases
All I know is they are paying me 4¢ per share monthly.
All I know is they are paying me 4¢ per share monthly.
Win
NES Member
Anyone have thoughts/opinions on royalty companies? E B Tucker makes a compelling argument for them so I’ve bought a few shares of Metalla (MTA).
Varmint
NES Member
So royalty companies are probably the safest way to invest in miners, because their risk is spread out to many companies, so a mine explosion or worker strike or change in local government or permitting won’t wreck the stock like it would a single mining company.
For this reason, the gold royalty companies move first in an up market, then producers, then developers, and last the explorers. They also don’t crash in down markets.
But Franco Nevada, the biggest royalty company is only 20% off it’s all time high. So if you buy it today, what’s your upside? 20%? Maybe 50% if gold goes to $2500?
GDXJ would triple if gold goes to $2500, and good developers and juniors would be 5-10 baggers. That’s why I don’t buy the big name royalty companies or the big producers (Newmont, Agnico Eagle) etc. lots of people own Franco or Newmont, whereas few people own GDXJ and nobody owns junior miners.
Varmint
NES Member
Are you going to make us guess what the lines are?
Gold looks like gold, blue is S&P500?
Win
NES Member
Thank you for the insightful explanation. Much appreciated!
Varmint
NES Member
MTA would be my top choice for a royalty company, they have a nice portfolio including several junior miners I own.
I have a small bit in TFPM, SAND and GROY. Not having the associated risks of mining makes them an alternate play in the precious metals arena.
Lucus
NES Member
I watched that show on TV. My recall is that Rick paid spot for those 3K Oz and spot at the time was a fair deal. It certainly was not $110.00
This is interesting....
gab.com
Scottsdale Mint on Gab: 'Several questions on what they did, here’s some a…'
Scottsdale Mint on Gab: 'Several questions on what they did, here’s some answers: Perth used too much silver and copper to dilute their gold, and China’s exchange has very strict rules on what it can be diluted with. This wasn’t it. The total dollar amount of bad gold bars is almost $9...
Interesting AND criminal.This is interesting....
Scottsdale Mint on Gab: 'Several questions on what they did, here’s some a…'
Scottsdale Mint on Gab: 'Several questions on what they did, here’s some answers: Perth used too much silver and copper to dilute their gold, and China’s exchange has very strict rules on what it can be diluted with. This wasn’t it. The total dollar amount of bad gold bars is almost $9...
Win
NES Member
I'm having trouble deciding is this is a big deal or not. It was still .9999 gold but that last .0001 percent was something it shouldn't have been? I do own a couple of ounces of Perth mint gold. I'm not pleased but not outraged either.
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