Gold and silver prices are down

[Varmint]

That's all I can think. Kind of thought that was already priced in. Guess I was wrong.

You weren’t wrong, gold shot from $2100 to $2450 with hardly any pullback or profit taking, and ignored geopolitical news during that run. The financial media always try to explain daily moves by tying it to whatever happened that day, it’s stupid.

Gold stalled out at $2450 so traders are taking profits. It could last a week or two, or maybe even less.

 

[Varmint]

Christopher Aaron’s says gold has never broken out without retesting the breakout level. So history says we should retest $2100.

I’m not in the $2100 camp. I don’t think the last 15 year chart of gold has anything like it in history, and that’s why it took off $350 after breaking out.

 

[Win]

Sorry guys - this is all my fault. I did my usual FOMO panic and bought at the top of the cycle. On the bright side I did pick up this treasure.

 

[DJBrad]

Christopher Aaron’s says gold has never broken out without retesting the breakout level. So history says we should retest $2100.

I’m not in the $2100 camp. I don’t think the last 15 year chart of gold has anything like it in history, and that’s why it took off $350 after breaking out.

I listened to that one on the plane home from Palm Beach late last night. Lots of good data and I’m in the camp a waterfall decline back to the beginning is possible once the stock market faces a correction from Fed policy. We just have to see what appears on the horizon for both fiscal and monetary.

 

[meh]

I listened to that one on the plane home from Palm Beach late last night. Lots of good data and I’m in the camp a waterfall decline back to the beginning is possible once the stock market faces a correction from Fed policy. We just have to see what appears on the horizon for both fiscal and monetary.

What about silver? Seems like silver has been following (and exaggerating) gold lately. But surely that pattern breaks at some point.

 

[Varmint]

What about silver? Seems like silver has been following (and exaggerating) gold lately. But surely that pattern breaks at some point.

Silver tends to correlate with junior gold miners as the more risky partner for gold. In a gold bull market it lags at first and then outperforms gold, as it was doing the last week or two when it almost touched $30.

If gold retests $2100, silver will probably go to $24.50 or so.

 

[DJBrad]

What about silver? Seems like silver has been following (and exaggerating) gold lately. But surely that pattern breaks at some point.

Pretty much what @Varmint stated and silver has a very hard ceiling at $30. That’s years of resistance and many who bought the peak over 12 years ago got trapped so that price level needs to be broken before the real bull run in miners helps us buy our lambos.

 

[Varmint]

Pretty much what @Varmint stated and silver has a very hard ceiling at $30. That’s years of resistance and many who bought the peak over 12 years ago got trapped so that price level needs to be broken before the real bull run in miners helps us buy our lambos.

I just heard a podcast where they were talking about investors who bought at $30 a decade ago, holding all that time and selling cause they broke even.

That’s the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard, nobody holds that long and then sells. $30 is a ceiling cause every single trader (and algo) knows it’s a ceiling and trades accordingly.

 

[DJBrad]

I just heard a podcast where they were talking about investors who bought at $30 a decade ago, holding all that time and selling cause they broke even.

That’s the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard, nobody holds that long and then sells. $30 is a ceiling cause every single trader (and algo) knows it’s a ceiling and trades accordingly.

This is for those who bought physical silver, not equities. I know a few personally who did and if that is a sample size then then there are many more. Two guys sold all their physical at around $22 and made that same claim about buying it too high. And now they regret it. Yes, it is stupid for sure.

 

[Varmint]

This is for those who bought physical silver, not equities. I know a few personally who did and if that is a sample size then then there are many more. Two guys sold all their physical at around $22 and made that same claim about buying it too high. And now they regret it. Yes, it is stupid for sure.

Yeah someone on NES was doing just that. But to think this tiny bit of selling is why gold or any asset sells off at a key level is silly. It’s because every trader is using the same charts and technical levels, and they set sell orders at major resistance levels.

 

[meh]

But to think this tiny bit of selling is why gold or any asset sells off at a key level is silly. It’s because ever trader is using the same charts and technical levels, and they set sell orders at major resistance levels.

A loaf of white bread in 2014 averaged about $1.39. Now it's about $2.00. So what you're telling me is that Silver used to have a resistance level at about 21.5 loaves of bread in 2014, but now it has a resistance level at only about 15 loaves of bread. Yeah, that makes perfect sense.

 

[Varmint]

A loaf of white bread in 2014 averaged about $1.39. Now it's about $2.00. So what you're telling me is that Silver used to have a resistance level at about 21.5 loaves of bread in 2014, but now it has a resistance level at only about 15 loaves of bread. Yeah, that makes perfect sense.

It does make sense, because the silver price is driven by the futures market, which is mostly just traders trying to make short term profits. They know everyone is going to sell at $26, that trade worked for years, buy at $19 or so, sell at $26. Once we broke through $26 they put their sell orders at $30, and that’s where silver bounced off and went back down.

Once we break above $30 they’ll jump on the train and sell at $50.

These guys all look at the same silver chart, they don’t care about it’s intrinsic value.

 

[meh]

It does make sense, because the silver price is driven by the futures market, which is mostly just traders trying to make short term profits. They know everyone is going to sell at $26, that trade worked for years, buy at $19 or so, sell at $26. Once we broke through $26 they put their sell orders at $30, and that’s where silver bounced off and went back down.

Once we break above $30 they’ll jump on the train and sell at $50.

These guys all look at the same silver chart, they don’t care about it’s intrinsic value.

I understand why they do it, but the question is not if but when does their unadjusted resistance level keep the inflation-adjusted price low enough that current production of the commodity falls behind demand.

 

[Varmint]

I understand why they do it, but the question is not if but when does their unadjusted resistance level keep the inflation-adjusted price low enough that current production of the commodity falls behind demand.

Silver is a weird metal because it’s primarily a byproduct of other mining. So it gets mined more when say a copper mine or nickel mine increases production. A copper mine isn’t going to increase production because silver demand is high. You will get more dedicated silver mines built eventually to meet higher demand but that takes years, and the industry doesn’t react to short term changes in demand.

It’s very different from the oil industry, where they can quickly adjust production if demand increases.

But eventually silver will break out and we are seeing that now I think. I’m heavily invested in silver junior miners and they’ve started moving recently.

 

[Varmint]

Gold options expire today so the bullion banks are predictably trying to drive gold down overnight. They do NOT want to pay out all those gold calls!

 

[Win]

Newmont is having a day! Up 13.4%

 

[DJBrad]

Newmont is having a day! Up 13.4%

Q2 will see over $6 billion revenue I bet.

Newmont Rallies After Better-Than-Expected Q1 Results; Settles Credit Facility for $330 Million​

BY MT NEWSWIRES — 1:24 PM ET
01:24 PM EDT, 04/25/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Newmont(NEM) rose almost 12% on Thursday after reporting improved Q1 financial results that also exceeded analyst projections.
The miner also announced the sale of a stream credit facility and offtake agreement back to Lundin Gold, the owner of a gold and silver mine in Ecuador, for total consideration of $330 million.
Lundin will make the payment in two tranches, $180 milliondue at closing on June 28 and the remaining $150 million by the end of September, Newmont (NEM) said. It has maintained its stake the mine through equity stake in Lundin.
Newmont (NEM) earned $0.55 per share during the three months ended March 31, as adjusted, up from $0.40 per share during the year-ago quarter, beating the consensus of $0.37per share polled by Capital IQ. Revenue jumped to $4.02 billion from $2.68 billion, also topping the $3.68 billionconsensus.
Price: 43.57, Change: +4.97, Percent Change: +12.86

 

[DJBrad]

AEM

AgnicoEagle just posted record Q1 ‘24 cashflow





“Building on a very strong close to 2023, we are reporting our second consecutive quarter of record operating margins and record free cash flow, on the back of solid operational and cost performance. With this strong start to the year, we are well positioned to achieve our production and cost guidance for 2024," said Ammar Al-Joundi, Agnico Eagle's President and Chief Executive Officer. "During the quarter, we continued to advance our key value drivers and project pipeline, and our exploration program yielded significant results at Hope Bay, Canadian Malartic and Detour Lake. We strengthened our balance sheet in the quarter and our focus remains on capital discipline and cost control, while investing in our projects pipeline and providing returns to shareholders," added Mr. Al-Joundi.”

First quarter 2024 highlights:

• Strong quarterly gold production – Payable gold production1 in the first quarter of 2024 was 878,652 ounces at production costs per ounce of $892, total cash costs per ounce2 of $901 and all-in sustaining costs ("AISC") per ounce3 of $1,190. Gold production in the first quarter of 2024 was led by record quarterly production at Canadian Malartic and strong production from Macassa and the Company's Nunavut operations
• Record quarterly cash provided by operating activities and free cash flow – The Company reported quarterly net income of $347.2 million or $0.70 per share and adjusted net income4 of $377.5 million or $0.76 per share for the first quarter of 2024. Cash provided by operating activities was $1.57 per share ($1.56 per share before changes in non-cash working capital balances5) and free cash flow5 was $0.79 per share ($0.78 per share before changes in non-cash working capital balances5)
• Strengthening investment grade balance sheet – In the first quarter of 2024, the Company increased its cash position by $186 million and reduced net debt. In addition, in March 2024, Moody's upgraded the Company's long-term issuer rating to Baa1 from Baa2
• 2024 gold production, cost and capital expenditure guidance reiterated – Expected payable gold production remains unchanged at approximately 3.35 to 3.55 million ounces in 2024, with total cash costs per ounce and AISC per ounce in 2024 unchanged at $875 to $925 and $1,200 to $1,250, respectively. Total capital expenditures (excluding capitalized exploration) for 2024 are still estimated to be between $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion

 

[Varmint]

Newmont is having a day! Up 13.4%

Their product is selling for $400 more than last quarter, while costs haven’t changed.

 

[Varmint]

AEM

AgnicoEagle just posted record Q1 ‘24 cashflow





“Building on a very strong close to 2023, we are reporting our second consecutive quarter of record operating margins and record free cash flow, on the back of solid operational and cost performance. With this strong start to the year, we are well positioned to achieve our production and cost guidance for 2024," said Ammar Al-Joundi, Agnico Eagle's President and Chief Executive Officer. "During the quarter, we continued to advance our key value drivers and project pipeline, and our exploration program yielded significant results at Hope Bay, Canadian Malartic and Detour Lake. We strengthened our balance sheet in the quarter and our focus remains on capital discipline and cost control, while investing in our projects pipeline and providing returns to shareholders," added Mr. Al-Joundi.”

First quarter 2024 highlights:

• Strong quarterly gold production – Payable gold production1 in the first quarter of 2024 was 878,652 ounces at production costs per ounce of $892, total cash costs per ounce2 of $901 and all-in sustaining costs ("AISC") per ounce3 of $1,190. Gold production in the first quarter of 2024 was led by record quarterly production at Canadian Malartic and strong production from Macassa and the Company's Nunavut operations
• Record quarterly cash provided by operating activities and free cash flow – The Company reported quarterly net income of $347.2 million or $0.70 per share and adjusted net income4 of $377.5 million or $0.76 per share for the first quarter of 2024. Cash provided by operating activities was $1.57 per share ($1.56 per share before changes in non-cash working capital balances5) and free cash flow5 was $0.79 per share ($0.78 per share before changes in non-cash working capital balances5)
• Strengthening investment grade balance sheet – In the first quarter of 2024, the Company increased its cash position by $186 million and reduced net debt. In addition, in March 2024, Moody's upgraded the Company's long-term issuer rating to Baa1 from Baa2
• 2024 gold production, cost and capital expenditure guidance reiterated – Expected payable gold production remains unchanged at approximately 3.35 to 3.55 million ounces in 2024, with total cash costs per ounce and AISC per ounce in 2024 unchanged at $875 to $925 and $1,200 to $1,250, respectively. Total capital expenditures (excluding capitalized exploration) for 2024 are still estimated to be between $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion

Wow, they’re making $1100/oz on gold.

 

[DJBrad]

Wow, they’re making $1100/oz on gold.

Yeah I was shocked to see the aisc.

 

[Varmint]

Gold’s making a run for it in the pre market.

 

[richc]

One ounce gold bars at Costco. If you have an Executive membership and use the Costco card, you save 4%. Less than spot price!

https://www.costco.com/1-oz-gold-bar-pamp-suisse-lady-fortuna-veriscan-new-in-assay.product.4000186760.html

 

[Varmint]

One ounce gold bars at Costco. If you have an Executive membership and use the Costco card, you save 4%. Less than spot price!

https://www.costco.com/1-oz-gold-bar-pamp-suisse-lady-fortuna-veriscan-new-in-assay.product.4000186760.html

Earlier this week Costco mistakenly had a $150 off jewelry coupon that worked on gold. People got gold Maples for $100 under spot and Costco seems to be honoring it. That’s why they’re a great company.

 

[richc]

View: https://youtu.be/iq0YQtdiptY?si=Yw1nqmfYi1T86rKd

 

[413guy]

https://youtu.be/iq0YQtdiptY?si=Yw1nqmfYi1T86rKd

Even Zimbabwe trying to go gold backed currency. Lot of the yellow metal being bought globally by central banks. Changes are aloof.

 

[DJBrad]

Sell in May and go away.

 

[Varmint]

Sell in May and go away.

I think that would be a mistake. The clock is ticking on the mining stock bargain sale.

 

[DJBrad]

I think that would be a mistake. The clock is ticking on the mining stock bargain sale.

Not miners. Just general equities. Major rotation happening.

 

[DJBrad]

Meh