Gold and silver prices are down

I think it’s analogous to the normal hypothesis in statistical analysis. If the unaccounted for factors are both numerous and random, a normal distribution tends to model the aggregate effect fairly well. However, when there is “something going on”, few factors unaccounted for which are not random and not understood, it doesn’t. Charting is less scientific, but at least if there are enough analysts singing the same tune, you get traders acting on it, a self fulfilling prophecy effect in the short term. But until you account for whatever is really driving demand, charting in a vacuum can’t yield long term insights.
 
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Varmint said:
I’m listening to Christopher Aarons who’s a gold chartist, talking about how the charts say gold may top out at $2750 and the bull market is over.

Has anyone heard a gold technical analyst who called the recent rally? I haven’t heard a single one who predicted when or how fast and how high gold would go the last 6 months. I question the usefulness of gold technical analysis these days for anything but short term trading (1-3 months). Maybe the Fed has broken the charts as well as everything else?
Click to expand...

Charts don't do a good job of predicting central bank activity...
 
I go away for a week’s vacation and look what happens to PM prices.

You guys really let me down. How could you let this happen???

😊
 
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yogi said:
Does anybody see Gold consolidating below $2,000?
Click to expand...

Nope, because Trump is just as guilty as the rest of them of deficit spending and driving up the deficit further.

Does anyone think he's really going to unleash Elon Musk to cut $2 Trillion in government spending? Will the Replican party let him do so and cause immense pain in the economy? They know it would crush any hopes the party has for winning again anytime in the near future.

Now that the election and rhetoric and done, we'll find out what he really intends to do. Yeah, he'll shake things up and put things back into an order he prefers. And it should be easy with Congress having his back. But no president wants to be known as the guy who created a great economic upheaval that puts millions out of work and crushes voter prosperity.
 
Well, tell me where I'm wrong.

* Despite all the talk about the demise of the dollar, the dollar has been stronger for the last two years than it was during most of Trump's presidency. It's more likely that we see weakening of the dollar versus other currencies over the next four years. I don't see how Trump's tariff ideas will prevent that.

* Wars and other tensions do not drive the price of gold so much as introduce a changing background of distortion. The price shifts upwards briefly because gold is perceived as a safe haven, but the tensions invariably ease, or at least investors become inured to them, after which it drifts back down to whatever price the more consistent market forces dictate.

* Money is rotating out of PMs and bonds into equities in a euphoric response to the promise of prosperity under Trump, but even Trump will tell you that it will take time before his economic policies start to bear fruit. And he's not even president yet.

* The jobs and economic data on which the Fed and the markets have been basing policy has been garbage for two years now, with headline numbers overshadowing massive revisions. It is impossible to say whether this has been intentional in order to bolster the chances of a Biden, then Harris election. It may very well be the result of crappy methodology. At any rate, there is no longer any upside to intentional fudging, and be that as it may, the latest jobs data was both bad and had a very poor response rate. There will be more bad news over the next few months even without the situation actually worsening.

* Equities are in a bubble, and AI is not going to prevent it from bursting. For two years, good news has been good news and bad news was good news, also. This trend has weakened somewhat as every now and then bad news gets treated as bad news.

* We're heading into a disinflationary recession. Manufacturing has been cutting hours and working through backlogs. It is likely we will see substantial layoffs in the next several months.

Bottom line: capital will be rotating back out of equities soon enough.
 
meh said:
Well, tell me where I'm wrong.

* Despite all the talk about the demise of the dollar, the dollar has been stronger for the last two years than it was during most of Trump's presidency. It's more likely that we see weakening of the dollar versus other currencies over the next four years. I don't see how Trump's tariff ideas will prevent that.

* Wars and other tensions do not drive the price of gold so much as introduce a changing background of distortion. The price shifts upwards briefly because gold is perceived as a safe haven, but the tensions invariably ease, or at least investors become inured to them, after which it drifts back down to whatever price the more consistent market forces dictate.

* Money is rotating out of PMs and bonds into equities in a euphoric response to the promise of prosperity under Trump, but even Trump will tell you that it will take time before his economic policies start to bear fruit. And he's not even president yet.

* The jobs and economic data on which the Fed and the markets have been basing policy has been garbage for two years now, with headline numbers overshadowing massive revisions. It is impossible to say whether this has been intentional in order to bolster the chances of a Biden, then Harris election. It may very well be the result of crappy methodology. At any rate, there is no longer any upside to intentional fudging, and be that as it may, the latest jobs data was both bad and had a very poor response rate. There will be more bad news over the next few months even without the situation actually worsening.

* Equities are in a bubble, and AI is not going to prevent it from bursting. For two years, good news has been good news and bad news was good news, also. This trend has weakened somewhat as every now and then bad news gets treated as bad news.

* We're heading into a disinflationary recession. Manufacturing has been cutting hours and working through backlogs. It is likely we will see substantial layoffs in the next several months.

Bottom line: capital will be rotating back out of equities soon enough.
Click to expand...
Thank you for articulating a post I was intending to make but didn’t have time and I agree 100% with this.
 
beltedKingFisher said:
Less war, lowered taxes, and a rise in the security of the dollar, all things associated with trump, seem to me as things that will hurt gold prices for the next 4 years.
Click to expand...

But those things didn’t cause gold to go from $2000 to $2700. In fact they had no effect. I think the only thing that could affect gold is if Trump addresses the government spending.
 
meh said:
Well, tell me where I'm wrong.

* Despite all the talk about the demise of the dollar, the dollar has been stronger for the last two years than it was during most of Trump's presidency. It's more likely that we see weakening of the dollar versus other currencies over the next four years. I don't see how Trump's tariff ideas will prevent that.

* Wars and other tensions do not drive the price of gold so much as introduce a changing background of distortion. The price shifts upwards briefly because gold is perceived as a safe haven, but the tensions invariably ease, or at least investors become inured to them, after which it drifts back down to whatever price the more consistent market forces dictate.

* Money is rotating out of PMs and bonds into equities in a euphoric response to the promise of prosperity under Trump, but even Trump will tell you that it will take time before his economic policies start to bear fruit. And he's not even president yet.

* The jobs and economic data on which the Fed and the markets have been basing policy has been garbage for two years now, with headline numbers overshadowing massive revisions. It is impossible to say whether this has been intentional in order to bolster the chances of a Biden, then Harris election. It may very well be the result of crappy methodology. At any rate, there is no longer any upside to intentional fudging, and be that as it may, the latest jobs data was both bad and had a very poor response rate. There will be more bad news over the next few months even without the situation actually worsening.

* Equities are in a bubble, and AI is not going to prevent it from bursting. For two years, good news has been good news and bad news was good news, also. This trend has weakened somewhat as every now and then bad news gets treated as bad news.

* We're heading into a disinflationary recession. Manufacturing has been cutting hours and working through backlogs. It is likely we will see substantial layoffs in the next several months.

Bottom line: capital will be rotating back out of equities soon enough.
Click to expand...

Damn, I know Kamala had a plan for all these issues and now we're stuck with Trump...

[rofl]
 
Made back over half of yesterday's losses in PM's. There was just a temporary glitch in the force.

IMHO Trump will want to drive rates down further. Although not his decision certainly he has influence. That's good for PM's. Good for businesses and consumers. Bad for inflation.
 
FWIW, the Thai Baht (THB: my currency now) appreciated about 13% against the USD from 1 May 2024 to 30 Sep 2024. The USD has come back some since then. 37.2098 to 32.3737; now 34.0774
None of this affects the price of gold in Massachusetts.

Common item (.965 fine): ทองแผ่น น้ำหนัก 1 บาท
 

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