mad max

[JayMcB]

Gotta work out also how many people are within a tank of gas of your area, and will be rushing to your area if the trucks stop.

it's false to assume they're all coming in 1 direction. More likely to disperse over an area. Wrong also to assume people will have a tank of gas. Normalcy bias will have them siphoning out gas from their gas tanks to run their box store generator until it's gone, because 'things will go back to normal'

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From what I have read on this, a loss of about 20% of the population would be devastating enough that our technological society would be thrust into the dark ages. Forget the constitution when it's everyone out for themselves for whatever food or fresh water is left.

It depends on which 20%. I could see a 20% reduction in population which would be very beneficial to this country. Start with the FSA. If the 20% that produced zero were removed, the remains who do produce wouldn't be thrust into anything but sustainability.

It might be enough for a reset.

What could be more interesting to us individually is what happens when we default on the loans from China and they come to collect.

What do they collect? All of the federal lands, without firing a shot? An aircraft carrier or 2?

 

[Varmint]

What could be more interesting to us individually is what happens when we default on the loans from China and they come to collect.

Well, China only has $1 trillion in US debt (out of $24 trillion). The US Federal Reserve could create that payoff out of thin air.

That's probably not how it'll go down - you'll see massive corporate defaults and bank failures, and the US will be on the hook for trillions more.

 

[just jim]

So really, what is most apt to happen for a SHTF?

 

[namedpipes]

So really, what is most apt to happen for a SHTF?

In the unlikely event you survive, you'll be hungry, cold and exhausted. All the time. (But no mortgage to pay!)

Not thirsty. You guys have a lot of rain, right?

 

[the_shootist]

So really, what is most apt to happen for a SHTF?

If you have any money in the bank you can forget about it....Bank bail ins will be the order of the day. Also, any wealth you have in electronic form or wealth instruments like stocks, bonds, ect.will be gone

 

[In God We Trust]

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[just jim]

If you have any money in the bank you can forget about it....Bank bail ins will be the order of the day. Also, any wealth you have in electronic form or wealth instruments like stocks, bonds, ect.will be gone

Are you saying everyone loses their money in the bank or just certain banks will crash? I know gooberment has made our deposits now part of the bank as an investment so if the bank fails your money is legally stolen.

 

[In God We Trust]

Are you saying everyone loses their money in the bank or just certain banks will crash? I know gooberment has made our deposits now part of the bank as an investment so if the bank fails your money is legally stolen.

The bad thing about money in a bank is that it is just electric numbers that can be stolen with a few key strokes.

I think the biggest indicator of a mad max financial collapse will be when retirement funds are fiddled with by government. They will probably not be out right confiscated, but rather forcibly converted to government bonds. "We are not taking it, just borrowing it." At first. It will quickly become apparent that no matter how the spin it, the money is gone.

When they make their first serious move against retirement funds, it's time to cut losses and head to your bug out location. It is the last gasp of a failed economic policy

 

[Varmint]

A lot of this talk about the government confiscating this, or converting 401k's to bonds - is misguided - the US would love to do this, but can't, because the moment people lose faith in the US Treasury as a safe investment, the US government will collapse under a mountain of debt when Treasury interest rates go to 20%.

So they can't do anything that would endanger the Treasury bond - like confiscate your money. No one will buy a US Treasury if they think the US might take their money.

 

[browncoat]

A lot of this talk about the government confiscating this, or converting 401k's to bonds - is misguided - the US would love to do this, but can't, because the moment people lose faith in the US Treasury as a safe investment, the US government will collapse under a mountain of debt when Treasury interest rates go to 20%.

So they can't do anything that would endanger the Treasury bond - like confiscate your money. No one will buy a US Treasury if they think the US might take their money.

They don't need to anyway. They can just keep inflating the value away over time to get the result without the panic.

 

[SKS Ray]

Does anyone have a scenario that they believe is going to happen?

Yep. Watch or read The Road.

That's what it'll be like after an apocalypse. At least until the govt crawls out of their bunkers, gets their shit together, and rounds up survivors for a restart on their terms.

 

[Duxprep]

There are really two questions being asked. What is the most likely SHTF scenario and what would it look like if the economy crashes. I think well either see massive inflation if the dollar is dropped as the reserve currency or a deflationary depression as the gov continues to screw with things.

For SHTF I think that pandemic or a cyber attack are the most likely. Both result in trucking and shipping grinding to a halt as well as a grid down scenario. The just in time economy can't handle any disruption from either of these. The 20% is high Though. You'd only need a 2% fatality rate to grind the world to halt. Picture 2% of all infected perish worldwide. Fear will do the rest. H5N1 a current and active birdflu has a 65% CFR. Case fatality rate for humans. If that goes pandemic we're talking mad Max.....