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Gold and silver prices are down

Win said:
I’m increasingly hearing traders dismiss the government CPI numbers as false when I watch kitco and other investing broadcasts on YouTube. It used to be, several months ago, that it was primarily Schiff that would ridicule the CPI numbers but now it’s pretty much everyone.

Whatever the case, I’m still firm in the belief that this is all a gift to investors in PMs to solidify their positions.
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The CPI is a highly manipulated indicator to minimize inflation and COLA increases. Read the history. When steak was expensive they substituted hamburger to moderate the CPI. When Johnson was president he'd insist that he be allowed to pick which CPI rate he wanted the public to see.

It's a bunch of BS...
 
Win said:
I’m increasingly hearing traders dismiss the government CPI numbers as false when I watch kitco and other investing broadcasts on YouTube. It used to be, several months ago, that it was primarily Schiff that would ridicule the CPI numbers but now it’s pretty much everyone.

Whatever the case, I’m still firm in the belief that this is all a gift to investors in PMs to solidify their positions.
Click to expand...

CPI is bogus but the problem is the Fed uses that (PCE really but it's similar) to set rates, and the market doesn't really care what inflation is, just what is the FEd rate and the bond rates. And those follow the CPI, bogus or not.
 
Win said:
I’m increasingly hearing traders dismiss the government CPI numbers as false when I watch kitco and other investing broadcasts on YouTube. It used to be, several months ago, that it was primarily Schiff that would ridicule the CPI numbers but now it’s pretty much everyone.

Whatever the case, I’m still firm in the belief that this is all a gift to investors in PMs to solidify their positions.
Click to expand...

I think you’re watching non mainstream analysts, if you watch CNBC they probably still spout the CPI party line. If bond investors start to think the CPI is bogus it’ll be a big problem for the Fed.
 
Interesting... another day where there was a lot of selling and downward price pressure before the US markets opened. And then a sharp reversal when the US markets opened. This happened last week.

Screen Shot 2021-06-14 at 10.01.30 AM.png


From last Thursday:


1623679609100.png
 
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$20 Liberty Gold Double Eagle MS-63 PCGS/NGC (Random) | eBay

Ancient Coins. Obverse: Lady Liberty surrounded by 13 small stars, representing the original colonies. Gold Bars 1 oz Gold Bars Fractional Gold Bars. Gold Rounds. Silver Bars 1 oz 10 oz Kilo 100 oz. Silver Rounds.
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ETA: sold out
 
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richc said:
Interesting... another day where there was a lot of selling and downward price pressure before the US markets opened. And then a sharp reversal when the US markets opened. This happened last week.

View attachment 492200


From last Thursday:


View attachment 492201
Click to expand...

You sell gold for one of two reasons, to get money for your gold, or to drive down the price. If the latter you sell when volume is low and you have your best chance to drive prices down through a major support level, like $1850.
 
Varmint said:
You sell gold for one of two reasons, to get money for your gold, or to drive down the price. If the latter you sell when volume is low and you have your best chance to drive prices down through a major support level, like $1850.
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To your point, there are very few having the volume of gold needed to drive the market price down like that. Or the financial wherewithal to manipulate the market with naked sales. These are generally governments, or giant financial institutions, many of whom are acting on behalf of a government entity. Or someone with a huge short position who's trying to limit the damage...
 
richc said:
Definitely worth a watch...

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Read that story earlier today. Imho he’s spot on. This is one of the greatest gambles in recent history. Hedge Fund managers should certainly consider a better hedge against inflation.

Side note: someone behind camera was shaking their pocket full of change. Maybe they had some Kruggerands in there.
 
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Good video. Here's what I think will happen (which means you can be sure that this isn't at all what will happen [laugh]). I think commodities are going to remain undervalued for another year or so. I think the fed is going to start talking more seriously about raising rates, maybe even raise rates a tiny amount while continuing their "transitory inflation" talk. It won't be enough to stop inflation but it will be enough for people to continue to think inflation isn't a major concern for longer than they should - a year or so.
 
Win said:
Good video. Here's what I think will happen (which means you can be sure that this isn't at all what will happen [laugh]). I think commodities are going to remain undervalued for another year or so. I think the fed is going to start talking more seriously about raising rates, maybe even raise rates a tiny amount while continuing their "transitory inflation" talk. It won't be enough to stop inflation but it will be enough for people to continue to think inflation isn't a major concern for longer than they should - a year or so.
Click to expand...

The Fed fears diminished business and economic activity more than they fear inflation.

Pick your poison...
 
richc said:
The Fed fears diminished business and economic activity more than they fear inflation.

Pick your poison...
Click to expand...
I would also add that the Fed is deathly afraid of raising rates. Like submitting its neck for a good ole Saudi beheading. Might be extreme but that’s what I think they are feeling.
 
Gold & silver spot prices are getting worked this morning (not that spot has any real correlation to the physical price of PM's right now.). But I always think there are profit opportunities around regardless of price volatility (up or down). I just like when there is movement, because I can usually buy or sell depending on the situation.

But over the last couple of days, I've been looking around at buying/selling opportunities on physical gold & silver and it's been more difficult than I can ever remember it being. If you want to buy, sellers demand incredible premiums, saying that inventory is impossible to replace. If you want to sell, purchasers demand to be as close to spot as possible regardless of any inventory issues. I'm not mad at it, as it's a free market and people are free to bid/ask whatever they want.

I can't make the math work in my head right now whether to buy or sell, so I'm sitting on the fence and rearranging the lounge chairs on deck a bit. While I personally like silver more than gold (as an amateurish collector/accumulator), I actually just traded a bunch of silver for a couple of handfuls of gold with a longtime precious metals friend. I may have paid a little too much for the gold, but my cost basis on the silver I traded (ASE's) was only $17/oz.

I know many of you concentrate more on the miners, and have much longer investment horizons. I don't have the time to do that research (and I'm probably not smart enough anyways), but I've had a decent amount of success with the physical side. It's not a perfect exercise, as sometimes my bets and decisions go the wrong way, but over the last 10ish years I've been pretty happy with the results. I don't recommend following my strategy if you are making decisions with important assets or retirement funds. If you are mainly using discretionary or fun money, though, you are able to basically gamble with much higher/better odds than you can get at the casinos.
 
I was looking for some deals this morning but it looked like only the paper market was on sale. In the physical market it looked like prices didn’t change much at all - the premiums just made up the difference in the paper price change.
 
Win said:
I was looking for some deals this morning but it looked like only the paper market was on sale. In the physical market it looked like prices didn’t change much at all - the premiums just made up the difference in the paper price change.
Click to expand...

images
 
US dollar surged higher last week after the interest rate announcements. It has reversed course and now losing ground against most currencies.

gold and silver are benefiting
 

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