Gold and silver prices are down

As we've been hammering inflation vs fed rate in the economic thread, I'll toss a corollary here. There is no way the gov manipulators allow gold to rise this year. If you want to do anything with gold stocks, I'd short them every time they approach 1840. The price of gold will not be allowed to go up above recent highs before Nov 3.

If Rs win in a giant red wave, you can bet with 100% certainty the price will then be allowed to skyrocket so inflation blame can be steered away from Biden and onto the House/Senate.
 
xtry51 said:
As we've been hammering inflation vs fed rate in the economic thread, I'll toss a corollary here. There is no way the gov manipulators allow gold to rise this year. If you want to do anything with gold stocks, I'd short them every time they approach 1840. The price of gold will not be allowed to go up above recent highs before Nov 3.

If Rs win in a giant red wave, you can bet with 100% certainty the price will then be allowed to skyrocket so inflation blame can be steered away from Biden and onto the House/Senate.
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We know the big banks manipulate gold prices (they've been convicted of it with a slap on the wrist) - and we see the manipulations work in the short or medium term.

But I don't think the manipulation works long term, cause you they can short gold all they want, billions of it, but if there are enough buyers they'll lose a lot of money and give up. This is why gold is $1800 now, instead of still being $1100.

So they could certainly stop gold at $1850 or $1900 and we go back to being bored, but eventually it'll break out.
 
Varmint said:
We know the big banks manipulate gold prices (they've been convicted of it with a slap on the wrist) - and we see the manipulations work in the short or medium term.

But I don't think the manipulation works long term, cause you they can short gold all they want, billions of it, but if there are enough buyers they'll lose a lot of money and give up. This is why gold is $1800 now, instead of still being $1100.

So they could certainly stop gold at $1850 or $1900 and we go back to being bored, but eventually it'll break out.
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Manipulation works until it does not. And when manipulation stops being effective there tends to be a lot of built up energy that pushes it in a direction opposite of the manipulation. I think it's called potential energy in physics.
 
So @enbloc should get back in the kitchen and bake us some silver cakes.

I’m really interested in how gold reacts after the first rate hike or if the market correction is a bit more robust than the Fed would like before that. It seems like March has been ripe for a big correction the last 2 years so 2022 should be interesting for some bottom fishing.

$3000 gold anyone?
$40 silver?
 
djbradles said:
So @enbloc should get back in the kitchen and bake us some silver cakes.

I’m really interested in how gold reacts after the first rate hike or if the market correction is a bit more robust than the Fed would like before that. It seems like March has been ripe for a big correction the last 2 years so 2022 should be interesting for some bottom fishing.

$3000 gold anyone?
$40 silver?
Click to expand...

Wouldn't rate hikes typically cause a drop in PM prices?
 
richc said:
Wouldn't rate hikes typically cause a drop in PM prices?
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Strangely enough the last 7 rate hike cycles saw gold and PM’s rocket higher right after the very first rate hike of each cycle save for one. I can’t remember the analysis of why but I think it takes away the uncertainty of gold price discovery and hurts capital markets just like we are seeing unfold.
 
djbradles said:
Strangely enough the last 7 rate hike cycles saw gold and PM’s rocket higher right after the very first rate hike of each cycle save for one. I can’t remember the analysis of why but I think it takes away the uncertainty of gold price discovery and hurts capital markets just like we are seeing unfold.
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Higher rates generally cause a stronger US dollar. And a stronger dollar generally results in weaker PM's.

Certainly other world fears can cause a flight to safety. Generally speaking, though, PM's represent an insurance policy for a weaker dollar.
 
richc said:
Higher rates generally cause a stronger US dollar. And a stronger dollar generally results in weaker PM's.

Certainly other world fears can cause a flight to safety. Generally speaking, though, PM's represent an insurance policy for a weaker dollar.
Click to expand...
Gold has risen with the dollar a few times. Not many, but a few times. Could happen again as this year pushes on. Could only find a chart going back 15 yrs or so.
Dollar blue
Gold yellow
FF91F6C6-0554-4BFD-8A74-BCE897342393.png
 
djbradles said:
Gold has risen with the dollar a few times. Not many, but a few times. Could happen again as this year pushes on. Could only find a chart going back 15 yrs or so.
Dollar blue
Gold yellow
View attachment 567862
Click to expand...


At the end of the day, and I mean this with full respect, none of us are smart enough or informed enough to predict the price of gold and silver. We are bystanders who want the price to rise if we own some.

At the end of the day what we all hope for is a major set of circumstances that causes a massive flight to gold and silver. Where emotion exceeds reason. Where people fear holding currencies and want a different store of value.

Do I think that will happen? Yup, longer term I fully expect the repeated borrowing by the US caused by deficit spending year after year will make the dollar far less attractive to the international markets. Gold has been a store of value for thousands of years. I would expect the demand to increase at a point where holding dollars causes a substantial loss in buying power and future value.

Basically waiting on the lid to pop off, the wheels to come off the track, for the masses to fully realize the US dollar is a fake representation of value. When barter becomes as important as cash sales. When it all comes crashing down.
 
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richc said:
At the end of the day, and I mean this with full respect, none of us are smart enough or informed enough to predict the price of gold and silver. We are bystanders who want the price to rise if we own some.

At the end of the day what we all hope for is a major set of circumstances that causes a major flight to gold and silver. Where emotion exceeds reason. Where people fear holding currencies and want a different store of value.

Do I think that will happen? Yup, longer term I fully expect the repeated borrowing by the US caused by deficit spending year after year will make the dollar far less attractive to the international markets. Gold has been a store of value for thousands of years. I would expect the demand to increase at a point where holding dollars causes a substantial loss in buying power and future value.

Basically waiting on the lid to pop off, the wheels to come off the track, for the masses to fully realize the US dollar is a fake representation of value. When barter becomes as important as cash sales. When it all comes crashing down.
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Ain't that the truth. The last 2 years I have failed to read any market correctly. Nothing is following long standing trends for the economy, the stock market, housing, etc. I am now more uncertain as I have ever been. And I'm retiring in September so I need this market nonsense like a hole in the head.
 
ASHDUMP said:
What can you guys tell me about this nickel?

View attachment 568004
View attachment 568005
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It is 35% silver. During WWII the US government needed the element nickel for wartime purposes. So they substituted silver from 42-45 (I think.)

They contain about $1.35 worth of silver at today's prices. That does not include the loss from wear on that coin.
 
Are those sides photos of the same coin?

42-45 nickels were 35% silver, but they also had a large mint mark above the dome on the reverse. There was no "Default" mint designated by the absence of a mint mark on the4se nickles.

If this is a 35% silver war nickle with the mint mark missing, you might have a rarity. Or, they could be photos of different coins. Or I could be missing something.
 
Rob Boudrie said:
Are those sides photos of the same coin?

42-45 nickels were 35% silver, but they also had a large mint mark above the dome on the reverse. There was no "Default" mint designated by the absence of a mint mark on the4se nickles.

If this is a 35% silver war nickle with the mint mark missing, you might have a rarity. Or, they could be photos of different coins. Or I could be missing something.
Click to expand...

Good catch! I wonder if it's possible the mint mark wore off?
 
Varmint said:
It does just 6-12 months before, so the actual first hike is usually a buy the news event for gold.

Traders all know this so you may see gold take off early.
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There is no such thing as something widely known that beats the market long term, though many things have appeared to do so over shorter time horizons.
 
Varmint said:
The last 13 years have proved that wrong, with retail investors buying ETFs and beating the pros.
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Have the retail investors beaten the market (not the pros, the market) on a long term basis?

The only thing a pro can really do for you is advise to history, what beta means, and that there is no increase in expected reward without increase in risk, and the concept of diversification.
 
Rob Boudrie said:
Are those sides photos of the same coin?

42-45 nickels were 35% silver, but they also had a large mint mark above the dome on the reverse. There was no "Default" mint designated by the absence of a mint mark on the4se nickles.

If this is a 35% silver war nickle with the mint mark missing, you might have a rarity. Or, they could be photos of different coins. Or I could be missing something.
Click to expand...
No mint mark, but I'll give that website a view. Interesting stuff!
 
chris_1001 said:
These days it’s ammo and primers…
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Not really. Are you certain that you can buy primers and ammo today and sell them for above the Dow rate of return after transaction costs? All you can really know is that ammo and primers have recently spiked in price, not where they will go in the future.

What does come close is Forever postage stamps or pay per throw garbage bags but liquidating large quantities at near the current selling price is difficult or impractical.
 
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