Gold and silver prices are down

[Rob Boudrie]

It's REALLY important to watch the premiums when buying or selling. If you look at my post #10060 in this thread, you'll see that on 5/28/23 silver halves were at a premium of +$8.35. Silver was around $23.20 then, so 90% halves were wholesaling around 22.6 x face value. Now, with silver at $31.48 the premium is zero, so 90% silver halves are wholesaling at 22.5 x face, just about the same as when silver spot was $23.20. So, you could have bought back then, had silver go up around 35%, and you're back where you started. BTW, silver dimes/quarters are wholesaling at a NEGATIVE premium right now, around -$0.40 vs +$7.00 a year ago.

But at retail, sell below wholesale and pay ordinary income, no capital gains, tax when selling. PMs have to seriously outperform the market to beat that alternative.

The next someone tells you "gold is up X% while stocks are only up Y % over the past N years", ask "What is the percentage gain compared to stocks after factoring in the buy premium I must pay, the sell discount I must take, and paying ordinary income rather than capital gains on the profit"?

 

[Varmint]

View attachment 882279

Mainstream Wall St financial press doesn’t understand gold, they’re confusing a lot of things in that video. They’re conflating central bank (comex etc) buying and retail (Apmex bars and coins) buying which are two very different markets. Retail gold and jewelry is a relatively small part of the gold market, compared to the futures market, which is what's driving this price move, not central banks or Indian retail customers.

But Wall St. wants investors to think this is just stupid scared retail investors in India or Costco bidding up gold, cause they don't want investors buying gold, they want them buying their fee-based products.

 

[Varmint]

But at retail, sell below wholesale and pay ordinary income, not capital gains, tax when selling. PMs have to seriously outperform the market to beat that alternative.

The next someone tells you "gold is up X% while stocks are only up Y % over the past N years", ask "What is the percentage gain compared to stocks after factoring in the buy premium I must pay, the sell discount I must take, and paying ordinary income rather than capital gains on the profit"?

If the IRS knows how much gold you have and what you paid for it, you're doing it wrong. There shouldn't be any tax on PM gains at all.

 

[Rob Boudrie]

If the IRS knows how much gold you have and what you paid for it, you're doing it wrong. There shouldn't be any tax on PM gains at all.

Easy to do with small quantities where it's gold for cash, no ID.

Tougher selling off-books if you have investment quantities ($100K or more) you need to liquidate. Sell a half mil stock to buy a house - easy, reported and frequently caoptal gains. Liquidate $500K in gold, do it off books, and leave no trace that can be used to nail you for tax evasion - not that easy.

 

[richc]

OK, what am I missing here:

2009 300-Coin American Silver Eagle Monster Box | eBay

Find many great new & used options and get the best deals for 2009 300-Coin American Silver Eagle Monster Box at the best online prices at eBay! Free shipping for many products!

www.ebay.com

300 silver eagles for $5300. Should be over $10K.

Is it just the empty box? Are coins included? Is my math screwed up?

 

[DJBrad]

OK, what am I missing here:

2009 300-Coin American Silver Eagle Monster Box | eBay

Find many great new & used options and get the best deals for 2009 300-Coin American Silver Eagle Monster Box at the best online prices at eBay! Free shipping for many products!

www.ebay.com

300 silver eagles for $5300. Should be over $10K.

Is it just the empty box? Are coins included? Is my math screwed up?

Looks gtg

 

[Duxprep]

OK, what am I missing here:

2009 300-Coin American Silver Eagle Monster Box | eBay

Find many great new & used options and get the best deals for 2009 300-Coin American Silver Eagle Monster Box at the best online prices at eBay! Free shipping for many products!

www.ebay.com

300 silver eagles for $5300. Should be over $10K.

Is it just the empty box? Are coins included? Is my math screwed up?

Likely fake - Backdated Type 1 Eagles are also far more expensive than current spot prices - Roughly $48/ounce - What the pictures show is a monster box which is 500 ounces not 300 - so even the pics aren't of what you'd actually be getting

 

[richc]

Likely fake - Backdated Type 1 Eagles are also far more expensive than current spot prices - Roughly $48/ounce - What the pictures show is a monster box which is 500 ounces not 300 - so even the pics aren't of what you'd actually be getting

But the seller has 1500+ reviews and 100% rating.

I wonder if the account was hacked?

 

[Win]

It's sold now. I don't know what the deal was.

 

[Rob Boudrie]

I don't think the US Mint offered or offers 1oz silver eagles in 300 coin monster boxes.

 

[Varmint]

OK, what am I missing here:

2009 300-Coin American Silver Eagle Monster Box | eBay

Find many great new & used options and get the best deals for 2009 300-Coin American Silver Eagle Monster Box at the best online prices at eBay! Free shipping for many products!

www.ebay.com

300 silver eagles for $5300. Should be over $10K.

Is it just the empty box? Are coins included? Is my math screwed up?

So few details maybe buyers didn’t trust the ad enough to bid it up.

 

[DJBrad]

Prices are more like $20k+ for these after a search.

 

[Varmint]

We’re entering the period where all junior mining boats are lifted. Novo Resources is up 25% this week, you can’t get much worse than that stock. The bad stocks are now outperforming the good ones.

 

[DJBrad]

We’re entering the period where all junior mining boats are lifted. Novo Resources is up 25% this week, you can’t get much worse than that stock. The bad stocks are now outperforming the good ones.

All the turkeys are flying. Still these stocks are like 2016 prices.

 

[Varmint]

All the turkeys are flying. Still these stocks are like 2016 prices.

They won’t go back to their highs after all the dilution they’ve been doing. I think people are still better off buying quality stocks.

In fact I think it’s just that the short covering has moved to the worst stocks. I doubt anyone is buying Novo.

 

[yogi]

He was asking about purity of coin silver in a silver set, like silver flatware. That is 90%, same as pre-1965 silver coins.

Ah thanks….coin silver confused me

 

[DJBrad]

They won’t go back to their highs after all the dilution they’ve been doing. I think people are still better off buying quality stocks.

In fact I think it’s just that the short covering has moved to the worst stocks. I doubt anyone is buying Novo.

What data are you seeing that confirms this is short covering?

Dilution has certainly capped price action to the upside. We probably couldn’t count how many companies either changed their name for marketing purposes or disappeared after 2015.

 

[Varmint]

All the turkeys are flying. Still these stocks are like 2016 prices.

Here’s an example, it’s not even a turkey it’s a good stock and Erfle recommends it. It’s up 150% from its bottom but look at the 5 year chart, it’s barely moved.

 

[yogi]

Easy to do with small quantities where it's gold for cash, no ID.

Tougher selling off-books if you have investment quantities ($100K or more) you need to liquidate. Sell a half mil stock to buy a house - easy, reported and frequently caoptal gains. Liquidate $500K in gold, do it off books, and leave no trace that can be used to nail you for tax evasion - not that easy.

If I had $500k in precious metals, like @richc, my advisors would have it distributed across the world in safe deposit boxes and chateaus . Right Rich?

 

[Varmint]

What data are you seeing that confirms this is short covering?

Dilution has certainly capped price action to the upside. We probably couldn’t count how many companies either changed their name for marketing purposes or disappeared after 2015.

No data, just an assumption cause we know you can do naked shorts in Canada and a stock like this is probably heavily short.

I don’t understand this stuff - short interest data but I think the good stuff requires a subscription.

NSRPF - Novo Resources Corp. Stock - Share Price, Short Interest, Short Squeeze, Borrow Rates (OTCPK)

NSRPF - Novo Resources Corp. Stock - Share Price, Short Interest, Short Squeeze, Borrow Rates (OTCPK)

fintel.io

 

[DJBrad]

No data, just an assumption cause we know you can do naked shorts in Canada and a stock like this is probably heavily short.

I don’t understand this stuff - short interest data but I think the good stuff requires a subscription.

NSRPF - Novo Resources Corp. Stock - Share Price, Short Interest, Short Squeeze, Borrow Rates (OTCPK)

NSRPF - Novo Resources Corp. Stock - Share Price, Short Interest, Short Squeeze, Borrow Rates (OTCPK)

fintel.io

Good point. I had forgotten about Bay street.

 

[richc]

If I had $500k in precious metals, like @richc, my advisors would have it distributed across the world in safe deposit boxes and chateaus . Right Rich?

I buried it but forget where!

And you're way, way too low...

 

[Varmint]

What data are you seeing that confirms this is short covering?

Dilution has certainly capped price action to the upside. We probably couldn’t count how many companies either changed their name for marketing purposes or disappeared after 2015.

Yeah I mean maybe if the miner market turns into a friendly people will pile into even junk stocks if they’re going up.

But take Novo, it sat out the entire April/May move in miners so yesterday’s 25% gain still puts it way behind everything else.

 

[Varmint]

I buried it but forget where!

And you're way, way too low...

Well the value is going up daily. 4% a day in silver’s case.

 

[richc]

I posted a chart earlier showing gold consumption by country. China and India are way up. The US hasn't moved.

We're still not seeing the rush to buy PM's in this country. Where premiums over spot shoot up, and there are substantial premiums over spot when selling to a dealer. Where online dealers are saying they're behind on shipping and orders will ship a week or two after being placed. Where most items are out of stock. Where there are lines at LCS.

When you see reports on the news about panic buying of PM's. News reports about long lines.

IMHO this is not a US based phenomenon. It's central banks and consumers in other countries backing up the truck.

 

[Rob Boudrie]

If I had $500k in precious metals, like @richc, my advisors would have it distributed across the world in safe deposit boxes and chateaus . Right Rich?

$500k is no where near enouh to make that practical.

When I was a kid "millionaire" meant something. Now days you are in medium-deep kimchee if you are not a millionare by the time you retire (excluding those with large defined benefit pensions from entites backed by taxing authority, of course)

 

[Varmint]

I posted a chart earlier showing gold consumption by country. China and India are way up. The US hasn't moved.

We're still not seeing the rush to buy PM's in this country. Where premiums over spot shoot up, and there are substantial premiums over spot when selling to a dealer. Where online dealers are saying they're behind on shipping and orders will ship a week or two after being placed. Where most items are out of stock. Where there are lines at LCS.

When you see reports on the news about panic buying of PM's. News reports about long lines.

IMHO this is not a US based phenomenon. It's central banks and consumers in other countries backing up the truck.


View attachment 882440

Yes but institutional investors are buying up gold too. Hedge funds, family offices, even Wall St firms. They just using the futures market not Apmex or GLD.

 

[Varmint]

$500k is no where near enouh to make that practical.

When I was a kid "millionaire" meant something. Now days you are in medium-deep kimchee if you are not a millionare by the time you retire (excluding those with large defined benefit pensions from entites backed by taxing authority, of course)

7 figures is the new 6 figures.

 

[Varmint]

$500k is no where near enouh to make that practical.

When I was a kid "millionaire" meant something. Now days you are in medium-deep kimchee if you are not a millionare by the time you retire (excluding those with large defined benefit pensions from entites backed by taxing authority, of course)

My kids are like “Dad, are you a millionaire?” And I’m like “Sadly, yes.”

 

[Varmint]

GDX chart, note we have already broken above his $36 level and if the chart is right we're headed for $40 or $43.