Gold and silver prices are down

I was wondering why gold and silver were moving so much but I now see it’s due to the ECB cutting rates again and lowering growth forecasts.
 
Win said:
It's nearly time for me to FOMO and spend all my cash on gold just before there's a pullback [laugh]
Click to expand...

To be honest it’s very hard for me to stomach paying $2600-2700 for a single gold coin. That’s like a new camera or an upper tier rifle. Whereas my 401k is just funny money so I’ll blow that on sketchy gold miners no problem.
 
This feels to strong a reaction for anticipated rate cuts.

We'll be the last to know, of course. Information is power.

I don't believe this is consumer purchases. There are no shipping delays mentioned at the online bullion dealers. Markups over spot are not outrageous.

Central banks? Maybe? Hedge funds? Maybe?

There's a disturbance in the force.

Sum Ting Wong... and why do I expect it has to do with China???
 
richc said:
This feels to strong a reaction for anticipated rate cuts.

We'll be the last to know, of course. Information is power.

I don't believe this is consumer purchases. There are no shipping delays mentioned at the online bullion dealers. Markups over spot are not outrageous.

Central banks? Maybe? Hedge funds? Maybe?

There's a disturbance in the force.

Sum Ting Wong... and why do I expect it has to do with China???
Click to expand...

I think there’s a lot of momentum traders that have jumped on the train. Gold is way overbought but it doesn’t go down cause it keeps attracting new buyers.
 
With the volatility we've seen over the whole year, you can be sure it's an overreaction to something. I don't think anybody knows what gold is going to do over the span of several weeks, but the geopolitical and economic environment favors it right now. Nothing goes up in a straight line, but my bet is that buy-and-hold will work out very well here. Just don't sell into a dip.

Silver is another matter. I made a bet on Sept 6 in PSLV that silver would be above 30 again within a couple of months. At some point I should lock in my gains, because if you wanted to convince me that silver, unlike gold, was going to break out without looking back, it would a harder sell. At least, it would be hard to sell me on the idea that it was going to occur without multiple buying opportunities between. Yeah, I know, this time it's going to moon. Silver is always about to go to the moon.
 
meh said:
With the volatility we've seen over the whole year, you can be sure it's an overreaction to something. I don't think anybody knows what gold is going to do over the span of several weeks, but the geopolitical and economic environment favors it right now. Nothing goes up in a straight line, but my bet is that buy-and-hold will work out very well here. Just don't sell into a dip.

Silver is another matter. I made a bet on Sept 6 in PSLV that silver would be above 30 again within a couple of months. At some point I should lock in my gains, because if you wanted to convince me that silver, unlike gold, was going to break out without looking back, it would a harder sell. At least, it would be hard to sell me on the idea that it was going to occur without multiple buying opportunities between. Yeah, I know, this time it's going to moon. Silver is always about to go to the moon.
Click to expand...
1726247441820.png 1726247590700.png Which would you rather be holding in your possession when things collapse? The choice is pretty simple.
 
I was once watching an interview with EB Tucker and he said, and I'm paraphrasing here, "People will get rich with silver. The problem is that nobody knows when." That rings with a lot of truth to me. Personally I'm still buying silver.
 
meh said:
With the volatility we've seen over the whole year, you can be sure it's an overreaction to something. I don't think anybody knows what gold is going to do over the span of several weeks, but the geopolitical and economic environment favors it right now. Nothing goes up in a straight line, but my bet is that buy-and-hold will work out very well here. Just don't sell into a dip.

Silver is another matter. I made a bet on Sept 6 in PSLV that silver would be above 30 again within a couple of months. At some point I should lock in my gains, because if you wanted to convince me that silver, unlike gold, was going to break out without looking back, it would a harder sell. At least, it would be hard to sell me on the idea that it was going to occur without multiple buying opportunities between. Yeah, I know, this time it's going to moon. Silver is always about to go to the moon.
Click to expand...

Silver has a few problems. It’s 1/10th the market cap of gold, which means JP Morgan and the other bullion banks can control the price. We’ve been in a supply deficit for two years now yet the price doesn’t go up, cause JP Morgan and the metals exchanges can pull physical silver from their stockpile to meet excess demand.

Silver is always confusing because it’s an industrial metal and monetary metal, unlike gold which is primarily a monetary metal. So you have opposing trends pulling on silver at all times. It’s also primarily a byproduct of industrial metal mining, which means mine supply goes up in good economic times, hurting the silver price.

Silver is most closely correlated to junior gold miners, which have been showing signs of life, watch if major gold miners break out, juniors and silver will follow.
 
Junior gold miners didn’t move at all the last two days, but the juniors who are actually producing or close to it moved a lot, many up a combined 10-20% the last two days.

Silver juniors also moved quite a bit. Need to keep gold up here, everyone is expecting a gold correction to $2400 or $2450 so nobody wants to jump in.
 
Varmint said:
Junior gold miners didn’t move at all the last two days, but the juniors who are actually producing or close to it moved a lot, many up a combined 10-20% the last two days.

Silver juniors also moved quite a bit. Need to keep gold up here, everyone is expecting a gold correction to $2400 or $2450 so nobody wants to jump in.
Click to expand...

It may correct. It likely will correct.

But the long term, intrinsic problems with the US dollar and massive US debt seem to make sure prices will march higher.
 
richc said:
It may correct. It likely will correct.

But the long term, intrinsic problems with the US dollar and massive US debt seem to make sure prices will march higher.
Click to expand...

Look at how much gold has gone up when we have very high real rates (+2.5%) and on paper at least a strong economy. If rates go down and we go into stagflation that’s ideal for gold.
 
1 year gold chart and chart of one of my 401k’s which is all junior miners. I’ve done little rearranging on this account so it shows how poorly junior miners are doing relative to gold. Many hold gold in the ground valued at $25/oz. Even the recent acquisition of Osisko Mining, a late stage developer, valued their gold at $220/oz. This acquisition was at a 50% premium to the stock price.

at the height of the 2011 miner bull market, developers were getting bought at $900/oz.

IMG_7578.jpeg

IMG_7577.jpeg
 
I'm guessing a 1/4% drop in rates by the fed. 1/2% will make it appear they are concerned.

I'm also of the opinion that the current gold price has run too far too fast. Some of that is people wondering if the Fed will cut by 1/2%.

Ergo, I suspect that we'll see a pull back in gold prices.

For the record I'm usually wrong about these things. So act accordingly.
 

Similar threads

Homemade buns and rolls
Replies
1
Views
284
grey
grey
Calcium Hypocholite - local and cheap water sanitizer!
Replies
6
Views
395
240Geezer
2
Gold Question from Newbie
Replies
23
Views
1K
Varmint
Varmint
FREE….seed starting and basic garden planning & questions seminar. 4/6/24 Hardwick MA
Replies
7
Views
268
mousegunguy
mousegunguy
Problem with my ExPed DownMat 7...
Replies
9
Views
505
Andy in NH
Andy in NH
Back
Top Bottom