Gold and silver prices are down

We'll see. Only 1/4% seems inappropriately low to me, but I guess they'd be eating their own dog food (making decisions on data that usually gets revised downward later). I'm not budging on my PHYS and GLD shares, but I did sell all my PSLV today. That was probably premature, but I'm satisfied with the return I got on a short-term trade that never seemed very risky to begin with. Time to look for another situation like that...or just wait for silver to drop so I can do it again. :)
 
richc said:
I'm guessing a 1/4% drop in rates by the fed. 1/2% will make it appear they are concerned.

I'm also of the opinion that the current gold price has run too far too fast. Some of that is people wondering if the Fed will cut by 1/2%.

Ergo, I suspect that we'll see a pull back in gold prices.

For the record I'm usually wrong about these things. So act accordingly.
Click to expand...

I’m leaning that way too. Not in the gay sense.
 
Varmint said:
I saw this article pop up on 321gold, have no idea who this company is, but in the future I definitely want to find a company from which you can buy physical gold and have it stored overseas, and the Cayman Islands or Switzerland seem like great options. I'd like to have some assets overseas for when the US government goes full retard and tries to confiscate or tax your assets into oblivion. If my bet on gold and silver miners pans out, I plan to rotate the money into physical gold before that bull market peaks.

Sep 11, 2024 Why You Should Consider SWP for True Offshore Precious Metals Storage SWP 321gold

321gold.com ...takes no prisoners!
www.321gold.com
Click to expand...
I think it will be difficult, this time around, for the government to confiscate gold.
In the past 10 years, 12 states have passed laws that proclaim gold is legal tender.

I feel much safer storing my gold at home, compared to having a company in another country store it.

Recently in the news was a story about people losing their life savings because the company that held their gold IRA account went out of business due to fraud.
 
clampett said:
I think it will be difficult, this time around, for the government to confiscate gold.
In the past 10 years, 12 states have passed laws that proclaim gold is legal tender.

I feel much safer storing my gold at home, compared to having a company in another country store it.

Recently in the news was a story about people losing their life savings because the company that held their gold IRA account went out of business due to fraud.
Click to expand...

I wasn't really thinking about that - but rather the government or big banks (they're really the same entity) confiscating our digital assets (401ks, IRAs, brokerage accounts) via taxes or whatever scheme they come up to make it official. If your money is in a Swiss bank or gold depository, it's harder for them to just take it with a keystroke.
 
Varmint said:
I wasn't really thinking about that - but rather the government or big banks (they're really the same entity) confiscating our digital assets (401ks, IRAs, brokerage accounts) via taxes or whatever scheme they come up to make it official. If your money is in a Swiss bank or gold depository, it's harder for them to just take it with a keystroke.
Click to expand...
Well, there’s gold in the case, and the case in the hole, and the hole in the ground, and the green grass grows all around all around, and the green grass grows all around.
 
Individualist said:
Not so crazy. As the article says $2,500 to $10,000 is only 4X.
Click to expand...

Picture a gold miner under this scenario.

A typical gold miner spend $900-1200 to mine an ounce of gold to sell at $2500. Gold goes to $10k, their profit goes up 6.7X.

Now picture a junior miner with a gold deposit that costs $2000 to mine an ounce of gold. Not worth building that mine so the stock is dirt cheap. But at $10k their potential profit is 16x higher. That’s where you get 50x gains on junior miners.
 
Varmint said:
Picture a gold miner under this scenario.

A typical gold miner spend $900-1200 to mine an ounce of gold to sell at $2500. Gold goes to $10k, their profit goes up 6.7X.

Now picture a junior miner with a gold deposit that costs $2000 to mine an ounce of gold. Not worth building that mine so the stock is dirt cheap. But at $10k their potential profit is 16x higher. That’s where you get 50x gains on junior miners.
Click to expand...

Yup, all additional gold value goes to their bottom line. Unless they have sold their production in the futures market in which case they have limited their upside potential.
 
richc said:
Yup, all additional gold value goes to their bottom line. Unless they have sold their production in the futures market in which case they have limited their upside potential.
Click to expand...

Yeah in 2020-2022 the costs for miners went up faster than the gold price so profits took a beating. But this years costs have gone down while gold is up $600, so miners are doing really well now.
 
Individualist said:
Not so crazy. As the article says $2,500 to $10,000 is only 4X.
Click to expand...

In the past bull markets gold went from

1971 $35 to
1980 $850 (24x)

And
2000 $275 to
2011 $1900 (7X)

And the things that caused those two bull markets (excessive spending and money printing), we’ve done to exponentially larger degrees this time.

So if it’s only 4X we’re getting off easy. Although this bull market started at $1050 in 2016, so it’s already 2X.
 
I forgot to warn you guys that I did buy some gold this past weekend so that was likely the top for some time to come [laugh]

I went back to the Nashua show. It was less crowded than last month which surprised me. I had a nice conversation with Norman from Maine gold and silver located in South Portland Maine. I purchased some gold from him at a very reasonable price. Nice guy.
 
richc said:
I'm guessing a 1/4% drop in rates by the fed. 1/2% will make it appear they are concerned.

I'm also of the opinion that the current gold price has run too far too fast. Some of that is people wondering if the Fed will cut by 1/2%.

Ergo, I suspect that we'll see a pull back in gold prices.

For the record I'm usually wrong about these things. So act accordingly.
Click to expand...

I told you I'm generally wrong...

:-)
 

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