Gold and silver prices are down

Varmint said:
Gold avoided a weekly close below $1675, that is bullish.
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Definitely still bullish but the price will meander around for the next several months especially If we see a 75/50/50 rate hikes. Big question is will miners lead the metal or metal lead the miners.
 
Varmint said:
I wonder if gold stocks can go negative like oil did?
Click to expand...
It’s hard to say but following oil so closely and by October ‘20 seeing the vaccine news cause oil to pop was eye opening. Those gains were massive too just like the gold complex. Some recent news is synonymous with an absolute bottom with bearishness which tells me it’s the right time to consider loading up if COT indicators show the trend is pointing in that direction. That commitment of traders seems to be a very reliable source of entry.
 
Hard to know where things go from here. One tidbit that resonates with me - I've heard commentators suggest that Powell is staying hawkish not because he hope the fed funds rate stops inflation (tho it's not hurting), but rather because he hopes a recession stops inflation. Scared people spend less money. Heck I spend less when I'm scared. My takeaway from this is that there are several disinflationary pressures now in play. The pivot may not be as far away as Powell is suggesting. JMHO which are more often false than true [laugh]
 
djbradles said:
It’s hard to say but following oil so closely and by October ‘20 seeing the vaccine news cause oil to pop was eye opening. Those gains were massive too just like the gold complex. Some recent news is synonymous with an absolute bottom with bearishness which tells me it’s the right time to consider loading up if COT indicators show the trend is pointing in that direction. That commitment of traders seems to be a very reliable source of entry.
Click to expand...

The last time gold futures traders were this bearish (extremely low long contracts and extremely high short contracts) was May 2019. In the 3 months that followed, gold gained 21% and GDX gained 51.6%.

Gold and mining stocks are getting close to their March 2020 lows as well, and there was a monster rally after that. I think the trigger will be a reversal in the extreme overbought dollar index. Hopefully we'll get that next week. The global central banks just all raised rates, so that could trigger a dollar selloff.
 
Win said:
Hard to know where things go from here. One tidbit that resonates with me - I've heard commentators suggest that Powell is staying hawkish not because he hope the fed funds rate stops inflation (tho it's not hurting), but rather because he hopes a recession stops inflation. Scared people spend less money. Heck I spend less when I'm scared. My takeaway from this is that there are several disinflationary pressures now in play. The pivot may not be as far away as Powell is suggesting. JMHO which are more often false than true [laugh]
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Definitely, he needs a reverse wealth effect and/or recession to reduce the demand side of the inflation equation. He needs the stock market to really correct - probably 3000-3200 on the S&P500. Even then he's not going to pivot, cause he wouldn't want it to shoot back up to 4000 in a few days and ruin his plans.
 
Varmint said:
The last time gold futures traders were this bearish (extremely low long contracts and extremely high short contracts) was May 2019. In the 3 months that followed, gold gained 21% and GDX gained 51.6%.

Gold and mining stocks are getting close to their March 2020 lows as well, and there was a monster rally after that. I think the trigger will be a reversal in the extreme overbought dollar index. Hopefully we'll get that next week. The global central banks just all raised rates, so that could trigger a dollar selloff.
Click to expand...
Buy the dip (if you can find it)
 
Win said:
Where might we be headed?
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I think most likely, gold will hold here (the small move below $1675 is a false breakdown), and if we can get back up into the $1700s by next Friday, you might see a big short-covering rally in the gold futures market.

The risk is $1675 fails and we head for $1550 or lower, doing major damage to the long-term gold bull market. I think it's unlikely, especially cause so many are predicting it. Gold usually fools the majority.
 
Varmint said:
Bears will try to dive it below $1600 in the thinly traded overnight market. I wouldn't worry about what happens at 3 am, I think there's a good chance we rally this week and finish the week and quarter above $1675.
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The FRN is a manipulated POS these days. I'll just keep stacking real money since it's on sale right now. In the end I think I shall not be sorry [rockon]
 
This is an OK deal. Common date $20 St Gaudens MS 63.

But I also got a 5% eBay bucks link this morning. So it became a much better deal.

www.ebay.com

$20 Saint-Gaudens Gold Double Eagle MS-63 PCGS/NGC Random | eBay

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