Gold and silver prices are down

Coyote33 said:
Hey, slow down hotshots. :)
Can you guys dumb this down for people who are not as up to snuff on their stock trading lingo?
Thank you.
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So we just think gold mining stocks are a great buy right now.
- I don't like to recommend junior (small or microcap) mining stocks to people who don't follow it religiously, cause they're not buy and hold stocks and you need to stomach 70% drops, which few can do.
- so if you're interested in mining stocks I'd just buy GDX, GDXJ or something like djbradles is buying FSAGX, which is Fidelity's large cap mutual fund I think.
- I don't really recommend buying individual large cap names you might know like Newmont or Agnico Eagle cause there's a lot of risk in individual mining stocks, especially the producers. An ETF like GDX or GDXJ will spread out that risk.
- I think best case return in a GDXJ is like 100-200% (buying at today's extreme low prices). If you are Mister Vegas and want 1000%, I can recommend some junior mining stocks.
 
Almost looking like we might get another month or few of strong dollar silliness. I’m going to hold on buying anything past the next fed rate hike. The biggest bargains may be yet to come.
 
Win said:
Almost looking like we might get another month or few of strong dollar silliness. I’m going to hold on buying anything past the next fed rate hike. The biggest bargains may be yet to come.
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Yeah since we keep raising rates and Europe and Japan are still basically at 0%, the dollar index keeps rising. But inflation shows how much the dollar is losing value.

Stock market is still in buy all dips mode. We won’t bottom til that dies a horrible death. I don’t think the Fed will pivot til something breaks, although that could happen before the stock market bottoms.
 
I can see another sell off in stocks with investors pushing the dollar up past 110 towards 115. That’s going to bring PMs down.
 
Win said:
I can see another sell off in stocks with investors pushing the dollar up past 110 towards 115. That’s going to bring PMs down.
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Europe just raised rates from 0% to 0.75% so that will probably halt the dollars rise.

Tuesday’s CPI is the big factor, the stock market is probably expecting a dropping CPI which takes pressure off the Fed to raise. If Aug CPI is up, stocks will probably sell off.
 
djbradles said:
Is the fomo going to happen soon? Is the mainstream going to adopt? It could be happening now…..

www.cbsnews.com

When should you buy gold?

Gold has historically been a solid hedge against the rising costs of inflation.
www.cbsnews.com www.cbsnews.com
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To me that reads more like an advertisement than sound financial advice...

For some of us have a bit of gold and silver is like an insurance policy. We believe in the future of PM's in a world of fiat currencies.

Of course it always takes longer for the rest of the world to catch up to our thinking. Or maybe we're just effing wrong??? I don't think so but we all recognize that a powerful market in PM's can be problematic for those issuing fiat currencies. They gain a lot of power and control as issuer of the currency. So their interests are not aligned with those of us who are fearful of the future of currencies.
 
Rob Boudrie said:
Find ANY gold article that mentions the lack of capital gains treatment or discusses in detail the buy/sell spread (buy a retail, sell at wholesale or below)
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Or advertisements from shysters who talk about the spectacular investment opportunities provided by gold and then charge 50% above market prices.

It's a dog eat dog world.

In my late teens I worked for a stock broker. At first I was a messenger. Sometimes I'd run to someone's house and they'd give me bearer bonds and I'd stick them in my pocket and bring them back to the office. Or stock certificates. Or whatever. No one knew who owned these. Where they were stored. Often they would go to children and grandchildren without a hint of asset tracking. Yes, they were subject to theft, loss or destruction. But massive amounts of wealth were sitting out there under the mattress.

With the advent of the tech age there are so few investments that the government does not track. Almost every investment vehicle transaction is stored in a computer system and many have mandatory reporting requirements to the government. Like any cash transaction exceeding $10,000 from a bank.

How many investment vehicles fly below the government's radar? Potentially gold and silver. For now anyways. But what else? Collectibles perhaps? But there are not many that can retail their value and still have an essence of privacy.
 
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richc said:
Fractional gold coins (anything under 1 ounce) typically sell for higher premiums over spot. This is indeed a decent deal.
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When fractional is close to full oz pricing it is always a good idea to grab some. Much more versatile. Back when the premiums were very low I picked up some 1/10, 1/4, 1/2’s and am glad I did.
 
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Rob Boudrie said:
Find ANY gold article that mentions the lack of capital gains treatment or discusses in detail the buy/sell spread (buy a retail, sell at wholesale or below)
Click to expand...

Don’t have to go far, the same vendor explains both.

www.jmbullion.com

Buy Gold & Silver Bullion Online | Free Shipping - JM Bullion

Buy Gold, Silver, and Platinum bullion online at JM Bullion. FREE Shipping on $199+ Orders. Immediate Delivery - Call Us 800-276-6508 - BBB Accredited.
www.jmbullion.com

www.jmbullion.com

Buy Gold & Silver Bullion Online | Free Shipping - JM Bullion

Buy Gold, Silver, and Platinum bullion online at JM Bullion. FREE Shipping on $199+ Orders. Immediate Delivery - Call Us 800-276-6508 - BBB Accredited.
www.jmbullion.com
 
richc said:
To me that reads more like an advertisement than sound financial advice...

For some of us have a bit of gold and silver is like an insurance policy. We believe in the future of PM's in a world of fiat currencies.

Of course it always takes longer for the rest of the world to catch up to our thinking. Or maybe we're just effing wrong??? I don't think so but we all recognize that a powerful market in PM's can be problematic for those issuing fiat currencies. They gain a lot of power and control as issuer of the currency. So their interests are not aligned with those of us who are fearful of the future of currencies.
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Yeah, it’s not linked for that purpose Rich. It’s foresight for when institutional and retail investors will begin to crowd the space. Those times are when gold and silver equities are going to explode. That’s a partial play on my part not related to holding physical.

The time to buy more physical is really being squeezed as there is not too much physical available, particularly silver. Central banks have only increased their buying of physical gold. The only time in the last few years they weren’t were right after the Covid crash. They’re smart enough to load up at cheap prices.

Cash is still sloshing around in equities and crypto. I find that is about to change as the Fed continues rate hikes, geopolitical risks abound, and fiat currencies take a hit from extremely debt laden nations/corporate/personal portfolios where we are bound to see a deleveraging event with a currency reset.

I have not observed in my lifetime nor in the past 90 years of history anything that looks like where we are today. Besides everything not being right, it also doesn’t feel right.
 
As much as I believe in my heart that the long term case for precious metals is undeniable, the immediate term environment appears muddled. I don't think we've seen the bottom of the markets and because of that I don't think we've seen the top in the dxy. When we do see the bottom of the market and the top of the dxy I think we'll be looking at the new floor for precious metals. From there I would expect a long uptrend for precious metals with some big days.
 
Win said:
As much as I believe in my heart that the long term case for precious metals is undeniable, the immediate term environment appears muddled. I don't think we've seen the bottom of the markets and because of that I don't think we've seen the top in the dxy. When we do see the bottom of the market and the top of the dxy I think we'll be looking at the new floor for precious metals. From there I would expect a long uptrend for precious metals with some big days.
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A very good point and DXY could make another run to 1.15 and much higher.
 
djbradles said:
Yeah, it’s not linked for that purpose Rich. It’s foresight for when institutional and retail investors will begin to crowd the space. Those times are when gold and silver equities are going to explode. That’s a partial play on my part not related to holding physical.

The time to buy more physical is really being squeezed as there is not too much physical available, particularly silver. Central banks have only increased their buying of physical gold. The only time in the last few years they weren’t were right after the Covid crash. They’re smart enough to load up at cheap prices.

Cash is still sloshing around in equities and crypto. I find that is about to change as the Fed continues rate hikes, geopolitical risks abound, and fiat currencies take a hit from extremely debt laden nations/corporate/personal portfolios where we are bound to see a deleveraging event with a currency reset.

I have not observed in my lifetime nor in the past 90 years of history anything that looks like where we are today. Besides everything not being right, it also doesn’t feel right.
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Fully agree on things not feeling right.

This winter will be cruel for many. Food prices will continue to skyrocket. I suspect oil, and thus gasoline and heating fuel, will head back to their prior lofty levels. This will crush so many already living paycheck to paycheck.

If we see further layoffs, that will be the icing on the cake. It's frightening what this country will look like if/when that happens.

I may not always be right but I'm never wrong... often said by my Dad.
 
Win said:
As much as I believe in my heart that the long term case for precious metals is undeniable, the immediate term environment appears muddled. I don't think we've seen the bottom of the markets and because of that I don't think we've seen the top in the dxy. When we do see the bottom of the market and the top of the dxy I think we'll be looking at the new floor for precious metals. From there I would expect a long uptrend for precious metals with some big days.
Click to expand...

There needs to be far more demand for PM's than any government or country is able to fight.

And when people wake up and realize that the government knows about virtually every single asset one owns, to their detriment, then assets that are basically untraceable will become more valuable.

In the beginning part of the allure for cryptos was their identity protection, making them perfect for illegal transactions. But these days that benefit has basically been eliminated. There is no anonymity...
 
richc said:
There needs to be far more demand for PM's than any government or country is able to fight.

And when people wake up and realize that the government knows about virtually every single asset one owns, to their detriment, then assets that are basically untraceable will become more valuable.

In the beginning part of the allure for cryptos was their identity protection, making them perfect for illegal transactions. But these days that benefit has basically been eliminated. There is no anonymity...
Click to expand...
In a digital world, the only secretly held assets are analog
 
djbradles said:
Yeah, it’s not linked for that purpose Rich. It’s foresight for when institutional and retail investors will begin to crowd the space. Those times are when gold and silver equities are going to explode. That’s a partial play on my part not related to holding physical.

The time to buy more physical is really being squeezed as there is not too much physical available, particularly silver. Central banks have only increased their buying of physical gold. The only time in the last few years they weren’t were right after the Covid crash. They’re smart enough to load up at cheap prices.

Cash is still sloshing around in equities and crypto. I find that is about to change as the Fed continues rate hikes, geopolitical risks abound, and fiat currencies take a hit from extremely debt laden nations/corporate/personal portfolios where we are bound to see a deleveraging event with a currency reset.

I have not observed in my lifetime nor in the past 90 years of history anything that looks like where we are today. Besides everything not being right, it also doesn’t feel right.
Click to expand...

Good way to tell if the public likes gold is global gold ETF inflows.

It’s hard to find a chart when people are selling gold ETFs (gold media don’t like to report that), but we’re at 4 straight months of outflows from global gold ETFs, including $2.9 billion of outflows in August. This is probably due to the strong dollar.

While the EU just raised interest rates 0.75%, they did not indicate any move to start QT like the US Fed is doing, so it seems Europe is going to sacrifice the currency to protect financial assets. Dollar will keep going up til the Fed stops QT and raising rates.

Gold might break out in anticipation of this, or wait til it is announced. For now I think the trend in gold and silver is still down.
 
Varmint said:
Good way to tell if the public likes gold is global gold ETF inflows.

It’s hard to find a chart when people are selling gold ETFs (gold media don’t like to report that), but we’re at 4 straight months of outflows from global gold ETFs, including $2.9 billion of outflows in August. This is probably due to the strong dollar.

While the EU just raised interest rates 0.75%, they did not indicate any move to start QT like the US Fed is doing, so it seems Europe is going to sacrifice the currency to protect financial assets. Dollar will keep going up til the Fed stops QT and raising rates.

Gold might break out in anticipation of this, or wait til it is announced. For now I think the trend in gold and silver is still down.
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I think the bottom is almost in for the leveraged ones like GDXU and JNUG. This have been very popular the past few weeks.
 
djbradles said:
I think the bottom is almost in for the leveraged ones like GDXU and JNUG. This have been very popular the past few weeks.
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GDX and GDXJ hit new lows last week on extreme bearish sentiment so I think we are seeing an oversold bounce.

There's definitely room on the charts to go lower, I think it'll depend on the general stock market. If the S&P500 rolls over and makes new lows, the miners probably will also. That will be good for miners in the long run since nobody is interested in gold and gold miners when the general stock market keeps going up.

When something breaks and the Fed changes their hawkish tone, gold and miners will go ballistic, so you definitely want to be in before that.

A surprise high CPI tomorrow might trigger a selloff in gold since it means the Fed pivot will be further out.

gdx and gdxj.jpg
 
Varmint said:
GDX and GDXJ hit new lows last week on extreme bearish sentiment so I think we are seeing an oversold bounce.

There's definitely room on the charts to go lower, I think it'll depend on the general stock market. If the S&P500 rolls over and makes new lows, the miners probably will also. That will be good for miners in the long run since nobody is interested in gold and gold miners when the general stock market keeps going up.

When something breaks and the Fed changes their hawkish tone, gold and miners will go ballistic, so you definitely want to be in before that.

A surprise high CPI tomorrow might trigger a selloff in gold since it means the Fed pivot will be further out.

View attachment 661160
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Charts don’t lie but there may be a 30-40% gain in gold/silver equities for the next 2-3 months because of such weakness.
 
my .02

Everyone with any savings should have at least part of it in physical gold/silver. Don't be concerned about how many FRNs are tied to an ounce because, at some point soon, FRNs will go the way of the dodo bird and become just worthless paper.

Think it can't happen here? Think again!
 

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