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Gold and silver prices are down

JohnZ said:
Guy must have had a bad lawyer. My question would have been "when was the last time that coins were sold for $0?" I think at the most, they could only base your basis on the lowest price since you came out of the womb.
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It’s the IRS, they do what they want, like ignore inflation when it works in their favor.
 
I've received a number of email promotions today offering Canadian and US Gold bullion 1 oz coins for $7 over melt. In my experience these types of pushed precede a drop in gold price.
 
richc said:
I've received a number of email promotions today offering Canadian and US Gold bullion 1 oz coins for $7 over melt. In my experience these types of pushed precede a drop in gold price.
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Yeah, I'm not biting, it's just a matter of time before it breaks below $1300 and they know it.
 
For those who get the Ebay bucks deals, 8% using the app, makes this gold Ducat $1241/oz, or $70 below spot. $541 after Bucks for 0.4438 oz. large and very thin, so I’m gonna pass but great price.

ON SALE! 4 Ducat Austrian/Dutch Gold Coin (Varied Year, AU/BU) | eBay

Canadian silver maples for $1 over spot after 8% bucks.

Roll of 25 - 2018 Canada 1 oz Silver Maple Leaf $5 Coins GEM BU Coins SKU49796 | eBay

Silver quarters for $0.30 below spot after 8% Bucks.

90% Silver Coins - $10 Face-Value Roll (Denomination Varies) - SKU #16485 | eBay
 
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I was watching some of those Kitco interviews on Youtube while I did my workout today. The guy that had the most concrete resistance numbers predicted a small drop in the next few weeks, then climbing with resistance levels at $1,385 and then $1,450. After that he didn't see much resistance till $2k. Myself? I have no idea where these resistance levels are but it's fun to listen to people guess where they are and then see if they're right...
 
I like the KE Report podcast, every other podcast is like “omg silver is going to $100, tomorrow!” but the KE Report is very good and has a great track record. They’re predicting gold revisiting $1280 and maybe even $1180, and not breaking out above $1360 for some time. They did say once above $1400 there’s no resistance til $1600. And $21-22 for silver.
 
It's curious to me that the dollar index has much influence on the price of precious metals. It seems to me that the dollar index is just a measure of which currency is losing it's value the slowest but isn't a measure of the overall rate at which currencies are losing their purchasing power. So all currencies could be in a rapid decent of purchasing power but the dollar could have a high index only because the other currencies are losing their value even more dramatically. How is that bad for PMs? What do you guys think? Am I missing something (entirely possible [laugh])?
 
Win said:
It's curious to me that the dollar index has much influence on the price of precious metals. It seems to me that the dollar index is just a measure of which currency is losing it's value the slowest but isn't a measure of the overall rate at which currencies are losing their purchasing power. So all currencies could be in a rapid decent of purchasing power but the dollar could have a high index only because the other currencies are losing their value even more dramatically. How is that bad for PMs? What do you guys think? Am I missing something (entirely possible [laugh])?
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You’re right, the main effect is a lower dollar makes gold cheaper for those holding foreign currencies, since gold is priced in dollars, not their currency.
 
Gold, and moreso silver and miners are really holding up despite the dollar rally and rising rates. I’m still waiting for gold to break below $1300 but it’s hanging tough!

The stock and bond market are rallying despite rapidly rising inflation in the form of oil and commodities, and rising rates, both of which the tapped out consumer is starting to feel. I think it’s cause the Fed just give a little hint they’re not as hawkish as they pretend, with the “symmetrical” talk.
 
ok, more 10% Ebay bucks deals:
Great Britain Gold Sovereign (these are restrikes mostly, so just pretty-looking bullion) - equivalent of $1241/oz so $80 below spot.
SPECIAL PRICE! Great Britain Gold Sovereign Avg Circ (Random) - SKU #152287 | eBay

Silver maples for $0.57 over spot after 10% Bucks.
Roll of 25 - 2018 Canada 1 oz Silver Maple Leaf $5 Coins GEM BU Coins SKU49796 | eBay

2 oz Silver Queen's Beasts coins for $1.15 over spot
Roll of 10 - 2018 Britain 2 oz Silver Queen's Beasts Black Bull £5 BU SKU52871 | eBay
 
I bought 8 more silver rounds that were already in airtites. I'm a sucker for silver that's already in an airtite. I used to buy a lot of silver maples, eagles, and prospectors but I've recently been on a vintage silver round kick. The collector in me enjoys having so many different designs - my wife and kids like them too which is a plus.
 
gold finally broke down through $1300. I’m hoping the miners and silver also break down below their recent lows, so I can buy in. :)

I don’t think gold will go that low, maybe $1275? I’ll buy some physical and 401k gold (GLD) if it gets that low.

It’s ironic that the 10 year Treasury breaking down today caused metals to break down, but had little effect on stocks. The irony is higher rates are bad for stocks and good for gold because it’ll accelerate the debt crises as various entities (corporations, munis etc) are unable to handle higher interest payments.
 
New Peter Schiff video up on Youtube. I believe from earlier this week. He doesn't say anything new but he does elaborate on a few points. I found it interesting. Posting in case anyone else cares to listen...

 
I listen to his podcasts. I find him very entertaining, he’s a fantastic story teller, has a way with words, and nobody explains economics as clearly as he does.

I think his scenario will take a lot longer than he thinks, and I think there’s also a chance the Fed won’t do QE and blow up the dollar, which is the backbone of his thesis.
 
Hum interesting. I don't have strong opinions of my own on these things so I tend to believe what I hear [laugh]. Just being honest.
 
Win said:
For instance the 1856 $20 double eagle that I just recently purchased for $1,440 is listed as $160 in my 1974 (my birth year) rebook.
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A respectable gain, but $160 invested at 5% for 44 years would come to $1369 and at 6% would amount to $2077. The S&P 500 went from $96.11 in 1974 to $2713.04 yesterday, so that $160 invested in an S&P fund would be worth $4516 (neglecting effects for a change of the basket compromising the S&P 500), plus you would get long term capital gains treatment on the asset.

A problem with numismatic and semi-numismatic coins is the "buy at retail, sell at wholesale" thing, whereas bullion coins sell for a 5% spread or so, and securities trade at a fraction of a percent buy/sell spread.
 
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Rob Boudrie said:
A respectable gain, but $160 invested at 5% for 44 years would come to $1369 and at 6% would amount to $2077. The S&P 500 went from $96.11 in 1974 to $2713.04 yesterday, so that $160 invested in an S&P fund would be worth $4516 (neglecting effects for a change of the basked compromising the S&P 500), plus you would get long term capital gains treatment on the asset.

A problem with numismatic and semi-numismatic coins is the "buy at retail, sell at wholesale" thing, whereas bullion coins sell for a 5% spread or so, and securities trade at a fraction of a percent buy/sell spread.
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The value of the S&P 500 is currently inflated by $21 trillion in central bank stimulus, so not a great comparison. But people shouldn't think of gold as an investment, it's really just money, but one that doesn't lose it's value over time like fiat currency.

In 1974 a gold coin bought you roughly what it'll buy you today, like a nice suit or a vacation for 1. $160 doesn't buy you a nice suit anymore, and it won't even pay for dinner during your vacation.
 
Varmint said:
The value of the S&P 500 is currently inflated by $21 trillion in central bank stimulus, so not a great comparison. But people shouldn't think of gold as an investment, it's really just money, but one that doesn't lose it's value over time like fiat currency.

In 1974 a gold coin bought you roughly what it'll buy you today, like a nice suit or a vacation for 1. $160 doesn't buy you a nice suit anymore, and it won't even pay for dinner during your vacation.
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It is a valid comparison if you sell your S&P index fund now, and buy three as much gold as you could have with the $160 back in 1974.

You must go on some rather fancy vacations if $160 won't buy dinner.
 
Rob Boudrie said:
It is a valid comparison if you sell your S&P index fund now, and buy three as much gold as you could have with the $160 back in 1974.

You must go on some rather fancy vacations if $160 won't buy dinner.
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Sell stocks at bubble highs to buy beaten down gold or gold miners, that'd be a brilliant strategy, but no one is doing that. They'll wait til the S&P drops by 50% and gold goes up 50%, then they'll do the trade.

But why not go back 3 more years to 1971 and do the comparison again.

Gold went from $38.9 to $1300 or 3342%
S&P500 went from $93.5 to $2700 or 2888%.

oops, now gold outperformed the S&P.

I meant a vacation, not one dinner.
 
Some good insights. I actually don't know anyone in the numismatic community that regards their purchases as primarily investments. Everyone I've chatted with about numismatics considers themselves a collector first and investor second. In fact most numismatists I've spoken with strongly encourage other collectors to enjoy their collection but invest outside of coins. I have between 5 and 10% of my net worth in numismatic coins and PMs.

This discussion reminds me of a conversation I was just having with my dad. He bought an Ansel Adams photograph for $873 in 1973 that recently sold in a Heritage auction for a little over $8,000. He was remarking on the fact that it had appreciated over 8 times. I was remarking that it was a great investment because since 1973 my dad has enjoyed that photograph hanging his dining room.

Edit: I had the sale price wrong for the Heritage auction
 
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He bought an Ansel Adams photograph for $873 in 1973 that recently sold in a Heritage auction for a little over $8,000.
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When I was in 9th grade, the photography teacher took a course on B&W printing from Ansel Adams himself one summer, and bought a print for what I thought was an obscene price (probably a couple hundred). I thought he was crazy.
 
Remember, if you get into "Medicaid spenddown" all your PMs must be declared as an asset and sold to pay the nursing home before Medicaid kicks in. Of course, if your dementia prevents you from remembering where they are, that's another story.

And if you give your offspring more than $14K worth in a year, complicated estate ta things start to happen.

And then there is declaring the profit from any sale on your 1040.
 
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Thank you!

Assuming I just 'stand by' and wait for them to email me some promotions that include 8 or 10% ebay bucks?

So a Swiss 20 Franc piece is a little under 1/5th of an ounce coin like the eagle? I'm very VERY new to buying gold, but have a small stock of silver eagles I bought here a few years ago. I think it's time to diversify and get some gold in the mix too.

Maybe one for each swiss rifle in my collection? :D
 
Dakar652 said:
Thank you!

Assuming I just 'stand by' and wait for them to email me some promotions that include 8 or 10% ebay bucks?

So a Swiss 20 Franc piece is a little under 1/5th of an ounce coin like the eagle? I'm very VERY new to buying gold, but have a small stock of silver eagles I bought here a few years ago. I think it's time to diversify and get some gold in the mix too.

Maybe one for each swiss rifle in my collection? :D
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Yes, now that you checked the box you should hopefully get the next Bucks offer. Toward the end of the quarter, Ebay might even do a 15% bucks deal, they did that back in the end of March I think. I maxed out my $500 Bucks when I saw that, buying silver and gold coins.

If you mean this Swiss franc,

ON SALE! 20 Francs France Gold Coin - Rooster (BU) | eBay

wait for 10% bucks and a sale. The combination will put them well under spot price. Those are also restrikes, fyi. Which means it might say like 1913, but it was really made in like 1965. All the vendors seem to call those 'original', maybe they can say that legally. So those coins have no real collector's value, buy them for the gold content and cause they're more interesting than buying bars.
 
A couple more gold Bucks deals.
Mexican peso 0.4823 oz, these are pretty cool, lot of fine detail. $95 under spot per oz.
SPECIAL PRICE! Mexico Gold 20 Pesos AGW .4823 (Random Year) - SKU #155383 | eBay

Swiss Franc coin 0.1867 oz for equivalent of $75 under spot per oz.
ON SALE! 20 Francs France Gold Coin - Rooster (BU) | eBay

There are too many silver coin Bucks deals to post. Search back in the thread if anyone's looking for silver deals.

But I'm holding off for hopefully a 15% Bucks deal later this month.
 

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