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SHTF currency
- Thread starter TheStig
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Rob Boudrie
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For most SHTF scenarios, US greenbacks are going to be the best. I know the gold and silver bugs will think "no way, once the banking system collapses, cash will be worthless".
The most likely SHTF scenario is a regional disaster like Katrina or Sandy. Greenbacks still had value, even when there was no power, or ability to read/validate debit and credit cards. There was no way to use silver (except at face) unless you were dealing with an owner-operator, which is rare these days.
You are at danger of overpaying if you try to use precious metals in a SHTF scenario where ca$h is still being recognized. Why give up an ounce of silver for a loaf of bread when a couple of US dollars will do the job?
Who knows, the US dollar may still have value in a total SHTF - after all, there will be no QE or fractional reserve to boost the supply of greenbacks.
I saw a small scale mini-SHTF as the Sears hardware store in Ashland a few years ago. They were operating with flashlights in a power failure; accepting cash only - credit card/debit could not be processed without power. They refused checks, even for regular customers they knew, since corporate police was "electronic verification" before acceptance. But, if you had cash, you could get anything they had that you needed.
The most likely SHTF scenario is a regional disaster like Katrina or Sandy. Greenbacks still had value, even when there was no power, or ability to read/validate debit and credit cards. There was no way to use silver (except at face) unless you were dealing with an owner-operator, which is rare these days.
You are at danger of overpaying if you try to use precious metals in a SHTF scenario where ca$h is still being recognized. Why give up an ounce of silver for a loaf of bread when a couple of US dollars will do the job?
Who knows, the US dollar may still have value in a total SHTF - after all, there will be no QE or fractional reserve to boost the supply of greenbacks.
I saw a small scale mini-SHTF as the Sears hardware store in Ashland a few years ago. They were operating with flashlights in a power failure; accepting cash only - credit card/debit could not be processed without power. They refused checks, even for regular customers they knew, since corporate police was "electronic verification" before acceptance. But, if you had cash, you could get anything they had that you needed.
Varmint
NES Member
+1 And this happened to me at Shooters last year, only people who could check out were cash buyers. Instead of going to the ATM, I just drove to Riley's.
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I see two SHTF options: (1) it lasts less than a month, or (2) it lasts longer.
If (1), don't worry about trading -- everyone should be able to survive well enough with what they have on hand for a month. Anyone not in position to hole up at home for a month should buy canned goods, water, etc. as needed.
For (2), the first thing you do is pretend it's (1). Then, if you live through the first month, and manage not to die in the coming year or so, you will be one of the very very few still alive. At that point, nothing we can imagine today will matter.
Money serves two purposes: it enables transactions and it is a store of value. For that first function, people must want it now. For the second function, people must have some expectation of a future. In a true SHTF long-term scenario almost nobody will be planning far ahead and hence won't care about money as a store of value. What they will care about is the value of something in the immediate term. So gold, silver, or little handfuls of .22lr will be worthless.
A gun might be worth trading for a meal or two. But then again the guy with the gun can just take that meal or two. Which leads to the next problem: people are at their worst when afraid. I'll guess any real SHTF scenario will max out the fear of the commoners. There won't be calm and sensible trading. There will be theft, killing, and worse -- unless it lasts less than a month, in which case you just sit around the house eating canned goods.
If (1), don't worry about trading -- everyone should be able to survive well enough with what they have on hand for a month. Anyone not in position to hole up at home for a month should buy canned goods, water, etc. as needed.
For (2), the first thing you do is pretend it's (1). Then, if you live through the first month, and manage not to die in the coming year or so, you will be one of the very very few still alive. At that point, nothing we can imagine today will matter.
Money serves two purposes: it enables transactions and it is a store of value. For that first function, people must want it now. For the second function, people must have some expectation of a future. In a true SHTF long-term scenario almost nobody will be planning far ahead and hence won't care about money as a store of value. What they will care about is the value of something in the immediate term. So gold, silver, or little handfuls of .22lr will be worthless.
A gun might be worth trading for a meal or two. But then again the guy with the gun can just take that meal or two. Which leads to the next problem: people are at their worst when afraid. I'll guess any real SHTF scenario will max out the fear of the commoners. There won't be calm and sensible trading. There will be theft, killing, and worse -- unless it lasts less than a month, in which case you just sit around the house eating canned goods.
Where are you going to make change for a gold coin?
" Hey can ya break a 1400"?![[rofl]](/xen/styles/default/xenforo/smilies.vb/013.gif "ROFL [rofl]")
You mean more like $1100/oz right? At the rate gold is going it'll be worth $20/oz in no time..
.Currently USD is where it's at. Even in a serious SHTF senario I'm sure habit and belief in eventual recovery of the U.S. government would maintain a value in USD to a lot of people. Before that changes just trade them out for whatever is on the rise. All indications now are still that silver, gold, oil, ammo are dropping in value relative to USD so all you're doing is devaluing your money by converting it to these things.
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usd will work in the first week or two, but if it is a nationwide problem like a bio virus, only tangible goods will be worth trading, everything will have value and people will want a store of value so i can see PMs being minted into coin or small shapes worth 5, 10, 20 dollars.You mean more like $1100/oz right? At the rate gold is going it'll be worth $20/oz in no time..
Currently USD is where it's at. Even in a serious SHTF senario I'm sure habit and belief in eventual recovery of the U.S. government would maintain a value in USD to a lot of people. Before that changes just trade them out for whatever is on the rise. All indications now are still that silver, gold, oil, ammo are dropping in value relative to USD so all you're doing is devaluing your money by converting it to these things.
Varmint
NES Member
You mean more like $1100/oz right? At the rate gold is going it'll be worth $20/oz in no time..
Currently USD is where it's at. Even in a serious SHTF senario I'm sure habit and belief in eventual recovery of the U.S. government would maintain a value in USD to a lot of people. Before that changes just trade them out for whatever is on the rise. All indications now are still that silver, gold, oil, ammo are dropping in value relative to USD so all you're doing is devaluing your money by converting it to these things.
If SHTF in the US but not globally, the dollar will crash and may never recover, once the world no longer views the US as the safest place to put its money.
My own feeling is that Silver and Gold is over rated for a SHTF currency. Silver and Gold are used to BUY things . "Buying things" usually infers that people having excess to requirements/necessities to sell. In a true SHTF situation where supplies and goods are no longer available are you going to trade a can of food for a silver coin you can't eat? Not me! I (and most people ) will only trade what they have for something they can use to further their existence.
Later on when commerce is reestablished, Silver and Gold can be used as a portable reflection of a person work effort (as todays currency is) for trade. It only purpose I see is an insurance policy for hyper inflation! Anyway that's my 2 cents!
Later on when commerce is reestablished, Silver and Gold can be used as a portable reflection of a person work effort (as todays currency is) for trade. It only purpose I see is an insurance policy for hyper inflation! Anyway that's my 2 cents!
ThePreBanMan
NES Member
clean water, food, guns and ammo... That's it.
This. No one is going to have a clue what to do with precious metals in an SHTF barter situation. Those old silver quarters that people buy up for their silver value are going to be worth 25 cents to the average Joe. Paper is what people know and understand. In the short term, paper money will probably still be good, although you can expect inflated prices for anything of value. Long term, maybe goods and services is all you can trade. Personally, I would not rely on a bartering plan. The dangers outweigh the benefits.
Rob Boudrie
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Unless, of course, the govt has an "anti gouge" law for emergencies.
Two things will happen:
- The "early arrivers" will stockpile way more than they need in the short term since they know it is going to run out, and there is no price dis-incentive to stocking up. Just look at the run on D cells at Home Depot before any storm. Remember, it's only hoarding when someone else does it. When you do it, the term is "prudent inventory management".
- Nobody will go to extraordinary effort to bring in additional supplies. The "ordinary price" will mean "ordinary shipping". Remember the guy who brought generators he bought at retail to a hurricane scene; sold for 2x retail; and was prosecuted? That will teach everyone - do not try this, the govt would rather people go without something than pay an emergency premium for it.
I won't pretend to have all the answers, but I do believe history has shown gold and silver always was the default currency when paper printed currency tanked. I believe trying to be well-rounded with ammo, toilet paper, medical supplies, gold/silver, and preferably an isolated bug out place. That and being friends with other like-minded people.
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Rob Boudrie
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True. There are several different types of disaster:
- Societal/economic collapse; no government to back the currency - think of all the farmers paid by the Nazis in scrip they could redeem after the Nazis won the war.
- Hyperinflation - Not just the normal devaluation, but the kind that makes C notes more useful as furnace fuel than purchasing instruments. Think Weimar Republic or modern day Zimbabwe (the later is switching to the US dollar for currency).
- Disaster - regional or national - that blocks access to the banking system. No withdrawals; deposits; ATM usage; credit card processing or debit card use. The dollar maintains its value, and cash becomes king.
It's just my opinion, but I think the chances of the last scenario far outweigh the first. The dollar losing half its value over 5-10 years would be problematic, but would not trigger the societal changes that are brought by true hyperinflation.
not as a currency but for the family, stock up on a variety of drugs that are needed. get some good antibiotic like Doxy, insulin if a family member needs it, other life saving drugs. heck if you need it, Viagra supply, lol.
cockpitbob
NES Member
IMHO gold and silver will have a lot of uses. Metals won't devalue during massive inflation. Plus, my one applicable story: I worked with a guy who got his family to the U.S. from North Vietnam in the 1970s. It took a lot of gold to bribe their way out of the country.
Rob Boudrie
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When Jimmy Carter sent the rescue team in for the hostages, they carried gold coins with them for bribes.
cockpitbob
NES Member
True. It all depends on the level of SHTF.
But, I'll never trade ammo to anyone. If things are so bad that gold and silver don't work, they are so bad that I don't want the people around me armed. I would rather be the only one.
bdb
NES Member
Varmint
NES Member
Aren't the good antibiotics prescription, and don't they expire quickly?
After reading One Second After, I definitely see the need for medicine.
http://www.amazon.com/Aquatic-Fish-...=UTF8&qid=1441038572&sr=8-2&keywords=fish+mox
Looks like shelf life is about a year and a half.
Medicine / drugs would be an extremely valuable asset to possess during big boy SHTF. For man babies SHTF buy all the precious metals you can.
Their shelf life in nothing to talk about but it can certainly be increased if you maintain them in dry cooler conditions to avoid hydrolization.
However keep in mind that drugs shelf life is not definite, U.S. Army is the best example of what I mean. I will leave it here but 10-15 years of after shelf life have shown to be just as effective.
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allen-1
NES Member
Look into fish antibiotics. Seriously.
cockpitbob
NES Member
Keep it in that 2nd fridge you have in the garage or basement. They'll outlast you.
