Hi all - appreciate all the replies. I think it makes sense to start with a full size frame and I can always pick up something smaller down the line if I want to be carrying more frequently. Not too concerned about being able to conceal something a little larger if it's only occasional.
I went and shot 200 rounds through the models that I outlined in my OP (VP9, G19, and M&P 2.0 Metal). I thought the VP9 fit my hand the best, but had the most recoil of the three (granted, it's 9mm and this isn't a huge deal, but I noticed the higher bore axis), and I don't love the paddle mag release. The grip on the Glock was just bad for me - the gen 5 felt like a brick and I didn't think that the grip angle was natural to point. I also don't care for the plastic mags (yeah, they're cheaper, but they also feel cheap). The M&P was really close to the VP9 from a grip perspective, but I thought the trigger was by far the best of the three. These were all range demos - I'm sure that they're never cleaned and the the M&P was probably the newest of the three - but I thought this was the best by a significant margin.
Planning to grab the M&P whenever I have time to run over there. I didn't even shoot the polymer version - from what I've read, they're close enough that I probably wouldn't notice a difference. The aluminum frame is not that much more money and the finish looks phenomenal.
Thanks again for the insight and the shitposts.
That's the right way to do it.
Good luck with your purchase.